Arsenal v Newcastle: Back Sandro Tonali's shots lines in semi-final | OneFootball

EFL Cup

Newcastle boss Eddie Howe

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones is backing Sandro Tonali to come to the fore in the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg between Arsenal and Newcastle on Tuesday...

Two teams desparate for trophy success

I had to double check that Arsenal haven't won the League Cup since 1993!

For a club of this stature, through the Arsene Wenger era with the likes of Theirry Henry and Denis Bergkamp, not to have landed a very winnable competition like this one is extraordinary. It's amazing that 11 teams have won the League Cup since Arsenal's last success, including four current EFL teams in Middlesbrough, Blackburn, Swansea) and Birmingham.

Arsenal have gone deep but not deepest of all. Since 1993 they have made it to nine previous League Cup semi-finals, making the final on three occasions so historically their strike rate isn't that appealing.

Although the Gunners are desperate for a trophy to start putting some winning material on Mikel Arteta's CV, their opponents trump them in the desperation stakes. Newcastle's last major trophy was the 1969 Inter-Cities Fairs Cup, if you can even count that. They haven't won a domestic trophy since the 1955 FA Cup.

For a club of this size that's simply not good enough.

According to the outright, that wait is likely to go on as Newcastle at 11/2 are widely unfancied to get the better of Arsenal over the two legs and go onto win it outright. The Gunners are joint-favourites for the trophy at 6/4 with Liverpool. A bit of housekeeping for you: VAR is in play for the first time in this season's competition.

Tonali can call the shots

Head-to-heads of clubs that stretch back further than a couple of season usually aren't something I put much weight on when pricing a game but Newcastle's record at Arsenal is noteworthy here.

They have failed to win any of their last 13 visits and incredibly they have scored just one goal at the Emirates Stadium in nine matches. That does put me off making any sort of positive case for the Toon who look short at 15/4 to win this first leg with the Sportsbook. A draw would be seen like a win with St James' Park such a formidable place for away teams to thrive in.

Confidence should be high within the Newcastle camp though. Eddie Howe's men have won their last six games a row - their longest run of successive wins under this manager, who has found a superb balance in the centre of the pitch with Bruno Guimaraes, Joelinton and Sandro Tonali a real high-quality threesome that have to be in the conversation when it comes to the best midfield in the league.

Although Bruno is suspended for this leg, it's in that area where my money is going Tonali looks a great bet to register some shots on the Arsenal goal.

He's looked the real deal since returning from his ban, putting in some all-action performances and it's no coincidence his return has triggered an upsurge in results. In seven starts he's had 15 shots, showing a real enthusiasm and drive to join Alexander Isak in attack.

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