Chelsea v Southampton: Back foul-magnet Enzo at 21/10

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·24. Februar 2025

Chelsea v Southampton: Back foul-magnet Enzo at 21/10

English Premier League

Chelsea host lowly Southampton at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday night

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Andy Schooler previews Tuesday's Premier League game between Chelsea and Southampton and picks out a 21/10 props pick which has landed in the player's last seven appearances.

Chelsea v SouthamptonTuesday 25 February, 20:15Live on TNT Sports 1

I'm not sure even their own fans would argue with the view that 2024/25 Southampton are one of the worst sides the Premier League has ever seen.

The stats bear it out - it's just nine points from 26 games so far for Saints this season and they come into this game 13 from safety.

Even manager Ivan Juric appears to know it.

After Saturday's 4-0 home defeat to Brighton, which he described as "a disaster", he decided to label his players "not good enough" to implement his tactics. I remain unconvinced that this will have the effect of cajoling them into a winning team.

For the record, they are 14.5 to win this contest on the Exchange; Chelsea are at 1.22.

Blues' value thin on the ground

They will probably take advantage but I wouldn't want to be going anywhere near the Blues right now at that price.

Yes, they should win, but this is a side who have claimed just two victories in their last 10 league matches.

Admittedly, this does look a hand-picked game in which to regain some confidence. After all, Southampton have conceded 3+ goals in the majority of their matches so far (14 of 26 to be precise).

But is there any value to be had in the Chelsea prices?

I have tried to find some.

Enzo Maresca's men are odds-on at 1.7 to score three or more but they've managed that just once in that miserable 10-game run and they will again have to do without Nicolas Jackson and Noni Madueke here.

Maybe they can cover the handicap - they can be backed at 6/4 with the Sportsbook to cover the -2 line.However, Chelsea have struggled to keep clean sheets all season. Even when they were winning regularly, they were shipping goals. They've managed just four shut-outs so far and only one of those has come at Stamford Bridge, while Southampton did score against them in the reverse fixture (which the Blues won 5-1). Concede here and they will need four to cover the handicap.

The other thing for those considering backing the 6/4 shot is that Southampton have covered this line in every single away game. They are yet to lose by three goals or more away from home, which shows they've managed to stay competitive despite all the criticism which has come their way.

Fernandez 21/10 to land bet for eighth game running

That word competitive leads me towards my approach for this game which is to look at the fouls markets.

Both teams are in the top five for fouls committed and fouls drawn, while we also have a referee, Thomas Bramall, whose average of 23.6 fouls per game is more than a point above the league average as a whole.

The price which stands out for me is for Enzo Fernandez to be fouled 2+ times, which is on offer at 21/10.

The Argentine World Cup winner has now landed this bet in each of his last seven games - he's drawn three fouls in his last two - so the price just looks wrong.

In the midfield, he'll likely be going up against Mateus Fernandes, who is one of Southampton's leading foulers, and if the Chelsea star continues to make the sort of dangerous runs forward that we saw at Aston Villa on Saturday, it's not difficult to see the visitors having to take him down at any cost.

Welington potential - if he starts

The other bet in the fouls market I like is for Welington to be fouled 2+ times, a 13/8 shot.

When researching the January arrivals, the Brazilian stood out for attracting fouls. He was fouled in 22 of his 27 games for Sao Paulo in Serie A/Copa Libertadores and fouled at least twice in 13 of those matches.

The early signs at Southampton are that the pattern will continue - he's landed this bet three times out of four so far. The layers are yet to catch up though.

The problem is that Welington has hauled off at half time for the second week in a row on Saturday with his "intensity" later criticised by Juric.

He may not start here but if he does, the 13/8 will be worth taking.

Saints' set-piece weakness

The other bet I looked at here was preying on Southampton's set-piece weakness - they have the worst numbers in the top flight when it comes to shots conceded and expected goals against (xGA) from set-plays, while only Wolves have let in more goals from such situations.

Chelsea defender Tosin Adarabioyo has scored in two of his last five games (three goals in total) and is an interesting prospect here at 6/1 in the anytime scorer market.

He's had eight shots across those five games and could certainly help create a tastily priced Bet Builder.