COLUMN: Next year, Rayo-Liverpool? Evaluating Rayo Vallecano’s Bid for Europe | OneFootball

The chant “El año que viene, Rayo-Liverpool” (“Next year, Rayo-Liverpool”) was allegedly conceived by Rafael Garcia Navas, the long-time stadium announcer for Rayo Vallecano, during the team’s promotion campaign in the 1988-1989 season. As a member of a Rayo supporters’ group (i.e. a pena), Rafa introduced the chant to energise fans during a decisive match against Deportivo de La Coruna. The slogan humorously expressed the fans’ aspirations to see their modest club compete against European giants like Liverpool.

Although it faded from memory for a time, the chant has resurfaced in recent years with Rayo’s strong league campaigns under Andoni Iraola, symbolising the enduring dreams and ambitions of Rayo’s supporters. And this season, the chant has returned again to the stands of the Vallecas Stadium.

An Unexpected Run

Given the 2023 financial statements compiled by football blogger The Swiss Ramble and what we know about the finances of the newly promoted sides (Valladolid, Espanyol, and Leganes), we can estimate that Rayo Vallecano has the second-lowest revenue and wage bill in La Liga after Leganes. It comes as no surprise, then, that Rayo and Leganes also have the oldest average starting XIs in the league, as pointed out by Robbie Dunne. There is simply not enough money to pay top young players. Thus, for a club of Rayo’s revenue, any league run that sees them avoid relegation with some comfort should be considered a success.

That is essentially what happened last year. Inigo Perez, formerly an assistant to Andoni Iraola, was appointed as the head coach on February 14, 2024 after the dismissal of Francisco Rodriguez.  His team struggled to find consistent form last year, leading to a 17th-place finish by the end of the 2023–2024 season. At no point did Rayo drop into relegation spots, but they also did not go beyond the 14th place they were in when Perez took over the reins. If La Liga were a school exam, we would say that Perez’s Rayo got a passing grade. Nothing more, nothing less.

ESTADIO DE VALLECAS PARTIDO DE LIGA RAYO-OSASUNA

Given this unremarkable performance and Rayo’s financial position, Rayo being currently sixth in the league table and flirting with European qualification stands as one of the most pleasant surprises of the season. With their latest win against Valladolid, Rayo is currently on the longest unbeaten streak in the club’s La Liga history (nine games).

Defensive Intensity and the “Battle Wall” at Goal

Much of Rayo’s rise can be attributed to a newfound defensive stability. They are now one of the most intense pressing sides in the league, with Understat data ranking them third in fewest passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), after Real Sociedad and Barcelona.  This is where Perez is most clearly influenced by his former boss, Iraola. To paraphrase Iraola, the objective of this style of play is to be brave and direct and use pressing to make opponents uncomfortable and disrupt their playing patterns.

This philosophy has led to a rather solid defence. Rayo have conceded the sixth-fewest goals in La Liga (24), which is not too far from their expected goals conceded (26.9), which ranks as the eighth lowest in the league.

The centre-back duo of Abdul Mumin and Florian Lejeune has provided reliable performance with very few major mistakes. While left-back Pacha Espino has struggled to get back to the level he had in Cadiz, a proactive and intense Pep Chavarria has taken over the starting spot in this role. At the right-back position, Andrei Rațiu has an important creative role in the team, with his ball-carrying runs being vital for moving the team forward and creating chances. It’s no surprise that he is on the wishlist of richer European sides such as Aston Villa.

Meanwhile, the midfield unit with Pathe Ciss, Unai Lopez, and Oscar Valentin has struck a decent balance between ball recovery and intelligent distribution. Perez will usually start two of these three and rotate depending on the opponent and accumulated match load. Lopez has become the passing hub of the team (most passes and touches per game), Ciss can win defensive duels, dribble and carry the ball over longer distances, and Valentin is omnipresent in defensive duties.

Then, of course, there’s goalkeeper Augusto Batalla. With a save percentage of 77%, he has been one of the more impactful shot-stoppers in La Liga this season. His heroics in crucial moments, like the double penalty save against Leganes that sent Rayo fans into delirium. Some controversial but valuable time-wasting antics, have not sped up his transformation into a cult hero in Vallecas.

The Importance of Attacks from the Second Line

Rayo’s attack is solidly midtable, which doesn’t sound impressive until you remember their low budget. 27 goals scored makes them the ninth-best offense in the league, again backed by solid underlying numbers, where they rank eighth with 28.4 expected goals created.

The striker is certainly not the core of this attack. Sergio Camello has a good associative game, and both he and Randy Nteka put in a shift defensively. Yet neither of them is particularly decisive in the box. What stands out most about Rayo’s attacks is how all the second line midfielders and forwards – Lopez, Ciss, Isi Palazon, Alvaro Garcia, Jorge de Frutos – have at least a couple of goals to their name. Rayo’s direct style of play and intensity can often stretch opponents and create more space for these second-line attackers to arrive at the box and shoot

Image via La Liga

Garcia has had more physical issues and might not reach the top speed of his younger years, but he can still be a tricky threat for opposition defenders. Then there’s Isi, who, after a year with mental health struggles, is now back to being the creative heart of Rayo’s attack.

Looking Ahead: Can Rayo Make Europe?

Aside from Batalla at goal, Rayo’s biggest argument to make it into Europe is collective rather than individual. As Pep Guardiola explained in a recent interview, modern football now looks less like the controlled football he has tried to implement with Manchester City and more like Iraola’s Bournemouth, Newcastle, Brighton, or Liverpool play. Rayo also embraces these principles of intensity and directness to compete against the top class of Spanish football.

With La Liga approaching its final stretch, the question now is whether Rayo Vallecano can maintain its momentum. On one hand, it’s hard to believe their squad has enough firepower to keep this run going. Real Sociedad, Real Betis, Girona, or RCD Mallorca might not be doing as well as Rayo right now, but they have deeper, more talented squads and arguably a higher potential. However, the underlying numbers look surprisingly solid and prove that Rayo being in the top half of the table is no fluke or lucky streak.

In a football world where the differences between richer and poorer teams get larger and football clubs often grow more distant from their local communities, Rayo is doing their best to remain community-driven but competitive. Even if this means their successes are increasingly rare, and even though this often requires the fan groups to butt heads with the club owner.

José C. Pérez can be found on social media here, and if you’re hungry for more, find their excellent work here.