La Liga Tips: Dani Olmo and Barcelona to make light work of Las Palmas | OneFootball

Spanish LaLiga

Olmo has been highly productive in his La Liga minutes for Barcelona

Jamie Kemp returns to preview three fixtures across a fresh La Liga matchday, including a 5/2 double in Barcelona's home fixture against away strugglers Las Palmas...

Barcelona v Las Palmas - Sat, 13:00

Barcelona have the highest PPG ratio in LaLiga home games in 2024 (2.6), as well as averaging the most goals per game (2.86). Meanwhile, excluding promoted and relegated sides, Las Palmas have the second worst PPG ratio away from home (0.75), as well as the second-worst goals per game conceded average (1.94).

You can see where this is going.

Hansi Flick's side may have suffered a slight wobble in the absence of Lamine Yamal of late, but a downturn was always going to occur. Their red hot start to the season was simply too hot to continue in that way. And although things look a little more normal now, this is still a highly dominant team with everything to play for this season.

Certainly at home to Las Palmas, it's hard to imagine any hiccups. Along with the aforementioned stats highlighting the home side's power, and the away side's fragility on their travels, this fixture very rarely has a surprise in store.

Las Palmas' last league win over Barcelona came back in February 1986, against what was then Terry Venables' Barça. And you have to go all the way back to the Rinus Michels era to find the last time the islanders made the trip to Catalunya and brought back all three points (2-1 in September 1971).

Of the four away games Las Palmas have played there since their promotion in 2015, they've lost all four by an aggregate score of 11-1. Indeed, there have been much better versions of Las Palmas than the current one that have gone there in this period and been sent duly packing.

All in all, I'll go for Barcelona to overcome the -2 handicap here, and I'll pair it with Dani Olmo to score anytime for a 5/2 double. The attacking midfielder is recovering his rhythm after an injury setback and looked good against Brest in midweek, where he got himself on the scoresheet. Not to mention he's got four goals in four La Liga starts for Barcelona.

Villarreal v Girona - Sun, 13:00

Sunday's game at La Ceramica pits together two of the most dynamic attacking sides in La Liga. In the case of the home side, it's easy to see. Villarreal rank third in the division for both goals (25) and expected goals (22.6) this season, trailing only Barcelona and Real Madrid in both lists.

As for the visitors, we have to rely on our intuition a bit more. Girona rank eighth in the division for expected goals this season (19.7) and joint-sixth for goals (20), some way down on their production of last term. However, between an injury crisis and the departure of a number of key attacking players, the Catalans have been under construction and slowly working their way back to the football we know they can produce.

We saw it last time out against Espanyol. Michel's side ripped through their opponents at Montilivi, establishing a 4-0 lead within 27 minutes of the first whistle. With more players back to health and better conditions for producing their football, Girona showed that their top gear in attack probably isn't as far away as the numbers suggest. And with continuity in coming weeks and months, this might still be one of the best attacks in the league.

Between a game of two attacks that are certainly above the league average, but have shown frailties on the defensive side, this is one where we have to entertain both teams getting themselves on the scoresheet. In fact, Villarreal have scored and conceded in 11 of their games in La Liga this season - a league-high total.

Along with both teams to score, I'll add in the strong possibility of goals being netted in both halves to take us closer to evens.

Real Madrid v Getafe - Sun, 15:15

There's no two ways about it - Jose Bordalas's record against Real Madrid is pretty desperate on the surface.

The Getafe boss has taken two points from a possible 39 against them in La Liga, and they're the opponent he's lost to most often (11), as well as the one he's faced the most times without ever winning (13 games). For a manager known as one of Spain's great disruptors, he's not had much joy in doing so against Real Madrid.

With all that said, my recommendation for this game isn't going to be entirely anti-Getafe. Although I'm still going to back Real Madrid to win, I think the visitors can at least stay in touching distance on the scoreboard.

Firstly, Getafe are a mean defence. They rank fourth in La Liga for fewest expected goals against (13.1), and only Atletico Madrid (8) have conceded fewer than them (11) this term. Indeed, they've conceded exactly as many as Real Madrid so far.

They're an admittedly poor attacking side - and I'd be surprised if they get themselves on the scoresheet here - but Bordalas's gameplan will revolve around being competitive even if the scoreline still says 'Getafe 0' come full time. Cutting the rhythm, slowing the game down, and draining the clock will all be on the menu for a visiting side using every trick in the book they possibly can to get a result.

Indeed, although Bordalas has a rough overall record against Real Madrid, the daylight in his games against them hasn't been enormous. This exact fixture in the last two seasons has been decided by a solitary goal (1-0 in 2022-23 and 2-1 in 2023-24). You might remember Jude Bellingham's 95th-minute winner in this one last term to rescue the victory for Ancelotti's side.

What's more, only one of the last five league games between Bordalas and Ancelotti has been decided by more than one goal - all of them have been Real Madrid wins, but crucially, only by fine margins on the scoreboard.

Overall, I'll opt for Ancelotti to stay in the win column but with under 2.5 goals in the game.

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