Ligue 1 Tips: St Etienne and Strasbourg your strong weekend selections | OneFootball

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Auxerre vs St Etienne - Fri, 19:45

The odds on an Auxerre win this weekend are too short, making the visitors the smart selection to get some points.

Auxerre were promoted back into Ligue 1 in May 2024 and their performances during the first-half of this season were better than almost anybody expected.

Yet we suspect that during the weeks and months to come they will struggle to match the standards they have set so far, and may even find themselves sucked into a relegation battle.

At the midway point of the campaign Auxerre had 22 points on the board. We would be very surprised if they managed to win the same number of points again during the second batch of 17 games to round off the season.

Signs of their limitations are already emerging: Auxerre are without a win in their last six Ligue 1 matches (W0-D3-L3), and failed to score in four of them. Their price of 2.04 to win this weekend makes no sense considering how they have played in recent weeks.

St Etienne are a team that may be heading in the opposition direction in the weeks to come. The team have been a lot sharper and more effective since former Brann boss Eirik Horneland was appointed as their new manager during Ligue 1's short winter break, and we predict that results will improve accordingly.

St Etienne are W1-D1-L1 from their first three games under Horneland, and that sole defeat came at the hands of PSG, who are obviously the strongest side in the division. Having collected just 16 points during the first-half of the campaign, we expect St Etienne to accumulate a greater tally during the second-half of the season.

Les Verts ('the Greens') are five places but only five points behind Auxerre in the standings, and will rightly see this match as an excellent opportunity to close the gap on one of the sides they will be quietly confident of overhauling in the months to come.

There are several ways to support St Etienne. You could back St Etienne on the Draw No Bet market at 2.75, or with a +0.25 start on the Asian Handicap market at 2.3. With this second selection, you would make a profit if St Etienne won or if the game ended in a draw.

Our pick is to simply lay Auxerre on the Exchange. By doing so, you will make a profit as long as St Etienne avoid defeat.

Strasbourg vs Lille - Sat, 18:00

The timing of this game hands Strasbourg a massive advantage and means they deserve supporting in some way.

Liam Rosenior's hosts have played some terrific football in recent weeks. They are W3-D1-L0 from their last four matches, and deservedly secured a 1-1 draw at second-placed Marseille last weekend. In front of a sell-out crowd, they will run out in confident mood this weekend.

But the decisive factor for us is that this game falls between two crucial Champions League matches for Lille. On Tuesday night, they lost 2-1 at Anfield in their penultimate game in the group phase of the competition. Next Wednesday, they host Feyenoord as they look to secure their place in the knockout phase.

Lille are 11th in the Champions League standings. They can still qualify directly for the knockout phase by finishing in the top eight positions, but the table is so tight that they may yet miss out on a knockout phase place altogether.

Given how much is at stake for Lille next week - not to mention the physical and mental fatigue the players will bring into this game following their draining midweek encounter on Merseyside - it is impossible to see them having the same levels of focus and attention on this game as Strasbourg will. They may also rotate in order to save some of their better players for the game next Wednesday.

Taking all factors into account, we were very surprised to find that Strasbourg are the clear underdogs here. The hosts are 2.86 to win, while Lille are 2.64, and The Draw is 3.25.

We would advise backing Strasbourg with a small start (0 & +0.5) on the Asian Handicap at 1.75, or supporting them instead on the Draw No Bet market.

the second, your stakes will be returned if the game ends all-square, and your pick will cash if Strasbourg take all three points.