Nottingham Forest v Ipswich: Back City Ground tie to go beyond 90

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·3. März 2025

Nottingham Forest v Ipswich: Back City Ground tie to go beyond 90

English FA Cup

Nuno Espirito Santo is likely to make changes

OneFootball Videos

It could be a long evening when Nottingham Forest host Ipswich in Monday night's FA Cup tie at the City Ground, says Dave Tindall...

Nottingham Forest v IpswichMonday 03 March, 19:30

Forest a real force at home

Forest have had some tricky times on the road of late but their form at the City Ground continues to be impressive.

They've taken 17 points out of the last 21 at home in the Premier League via five wins and two draws. And the only dropped points in that sequence have come against the top two, Liverpool (1-1) and Arsenal (0-0).

The goalless draw against Arsenal on Wednesday was achieved with little fuss and although the Gunners have had their frontline decimated, it was still impressive that Forest allowed the Premier League's second best team just a single shot on target.

Forest remain third on 48 points but the seven teams below them (42pts to 47pts) are all breathing down their necks.

So, what does Nuno do? Go all out for Champions League qualification by resting some key names here or realising that with Liverpool and Arsenal already eliminated, this could be a golden chance for Forest to go all the way in the FA Cup?

Ipswich struggling but enjoying FA Cup distraction

Ipswich's hopes of Premier League survival are starting to fade. A 3-2 loss at 10-man Manchester United in midweek was their sixth loss in seven top-flight games and they're now five points behind fourth-bottom Wolves, who look to have wins in them.

Kieran McKenna's men have managed just three top-flight victories out of 27 so they find it very hard to get results against Premier League opposition despite often being competitive in games.

The good news is that their only wins since the calender flipped to 2025 have come in the FA Cup. The caveat is that both were against lower-league opposition: 3-0 v League One Bristol Rovers at Portman Road in round three and a 4-1 victory at Coventry in round four.

The Coventry triumph was impressive given that Frank Lampard's side have won seven of their last nine games, the only defeats being against Ipswich and Championship leaders Leeds. But maybe that just tells us that Ipswich's level is top of the Championship and that the step up to the Premier League has been too much.

Forest firm favourites

The two have played each other just once this season, a league game at the City Ground that ended in a narrow 1-0 Forest win thanks to Chris Wood's 49th-minute penalty.

For Ipswich, it was a familiar story. A bright start that petered out.

Forest have reached this stage by beating Championship basement dwellers Luton 2-0 at home and then edging out League One Exeter (18th in that division) on penalties after a 2-2 draw in regulation time.

Looking at that Exeter game, Forest had a host of first-teamers on the bench - Sels, Williams, Anderson, Gibbs-White, Elanga, Wood - and Nuno's starting XI will obviously be key on Monday night.

If he goes for it, Forest would be firmly fancied; if he keeps the big guns on the bench, the door could be open.

The odds show 7/10 Forest, 7/2 Ipswich and 3/1 The Draw. Forest are 1/3 in the To Qualify market which includes extra-time and penalties (yes, extra-time is in play in round five). Ipswich are 9/4 to go through.

Draw appeals with Forest likely to rotate

The likelihood is that Nuno does rotate. They've had a busy schedule, he admits several players are feeling knocks and his words hint at giving others a chance. "Everybody is first team - there is no difference between players."

It's also the case that Ipswich, like many relegation-threatened teams down the years, will feel the pressue lifting a little when they run out for a Cup tie.

McKenna backed that idea up in his press conference. "A couple of earlier rounds have been a nice break from the league action. It's a nice change of focus and narrative and a nice progression for the group. It's a real challenge but a really good cup tie in a historic ground against a good Premier League side. A welcome distraction to be honest."

Forest are tough at home but the combination of a rotated team and Ipswich feeling slightly liberated points me towards a draw at full-time at a decent 3/1.

Awoniyi is Bet Builder option

One man likely to benefit from a Nuno shuffle is Taiwo Awoniyi.

Wood's brilliant form has reduced his playing time but the Nigerian striker has started both FA Cup ties so far.

In the last round at Exeter, he netted Forest's second goal and he should certainly be fresh after only getting the last five minutes against Arsenal.

Awoniyi to score in a draw pays just shy of 9/1.

Ramon Sosa has scored in both the third and fourth rounds so the same bet with him doubles that price to 18/1.