Settling the Nick Pope v Martin Dubravka debate | OneFootball

Newcastle United’s quest for a return to the Champions League continued on Monday, with a routine 3-0 win against basement dwellers Leicester City. A key feature of the team over recent weeks has been the return of Nick Pope as Newcastle’s unquestioned (in Eddie Howe’s eyes) number one.

The return of Nick Pope to the line-up has caused some vocal debate amongst Newcastle fans on the terraces and online, with a number of fans critical of the decision to remove Martin Dubravka from the starting 11.

The Slovakian stopper had been enjoying his best run of form in many a year following Pope’s injury lay off in December, with many fans suggesting he is more comfortable with the ball at his feet than his English teammate.

There’s also a suggestion from many people that Pope’s levels have dropped since his shoulder injury last season.

On the other hand, advocates for Soham’s finest are quick to point out that Pope commands his box better and is more decisive when dealing with 1-v-1 situations.

In any debate like this I tend to look to statistics to provide clarity, as personal bias can often cloud judgement of even the most astute of observers. In the interest of fairness, I think it’s important to say I lean on the side of Nick Pope in this debate but, let’s defer to the numbers, to see if any side of the debate can claim victory.

Let’s start with the number one argument put forward as to why people would prefer Dubravka as the number one, playing out from the back.

No one with eyes can try and claim that Nick Pope is particularly comfortable at playing out from the back. There is often a collective sharp intake of breath when Pope is passed the ball with even a smidgen of pressure. However, for all the criticism of Pope, is Dubravka any better with the ball at his feet, or does he just appear that way because he doesn’t look as awkward?

Looking at the goalkeeping data from fbref.com, Dubravka is marginally more accurate with his passing when it comes to short and medium range passes (those under 40 yards). Dubravka has a 100% success rate at these ranges while Pope sits only slightly below with 99% and 98% respectively. One point of note is the volume of passes made at these ranges, Dubravka attempts seven more passes per game (24 passes) at short-medium range per match. These numbers flip when it comes to “launched” passes of 40+ yards. Nick Pope not only has a greater volume of these passes (14 per match vs 11) but also boasts a greater accuracy at 41% vs 40%.

What we can take from these numbers is that Dubravka holds slightly more trust when it comes to the short passing game than Nick Pope, but his overall performance in these situations isn’t drastically superior. This becomes clearer when looking at the stats league wide for goalkeepers and their passing tendencies.

Newcastle are the team which involves the keeper second lowest when looking at passes attempted per match, only Nottingham Forest are below us. Newcastle’s keepers only make about 23 passes per match, Nottingham Forest sit at just 18 per match. These numbers are in stark contrast to possession based teams such as Brentford and Manchester City who average 39 and 32 passes per match respectively.

Part of this is down to style of play but, while we’re not a possession based side, we do favour shorter passes from our keepers on the whole with only 23% of our keepers passing from open play going long. This is the 3rd lowest in the league behind only Man City and Spurs and a massive difference from the other team with a low involvement of the keeper, Nottingham Forest. Matz Sels sends an eye watering 77% of his passes long, 25% more than his nearest competition in fellow long ball merchant Jordan Pickford.

In conclusion, neither Nick Pope or Martin Dubravka can be considered particularly effective in passing out from the back and as such, passing ability can be discounted as a determining factor to who starts. Furthermore, these numbers are probably why we are still seeing links to keepers such as James Trafford, who theoretically could offer a greater flexibility in playing style.

A safe pair of hands

With little to choose between our duelling number ones in the kicking department next, we need to consider their shot stopping ability. There are a few measures that can be considered here; clean sheets, save percentage, goals conceded and post shot xG.

The numbers I’m working with deal specifically with Premier league appearances and first up is clean sheets. Both Pope and Dubravka have managed five clean sheets in the league this season, however, Dubravka has played only half the games, meaning he takes this stat with a 50% clean sheet ratio. While it’s an impressive ratio, it should be tempered by the fact that Dubravka has only faced Man City from the league’s current top six and in this game he conceded four.

Next up is save percentage, as the name suggests this is a measure of how many shots you save from the total faced. Pope and Dubravka are nearly inseparable here with Pope registering a save percentage of 70.5% and Dubravka 70.7%. Both of these figures are above average for the league and considering Newcastle face more shots per match than the majority of the top half of the premier league table, these numbers are more impressive.

Moving on to goals conceded and post shot xG we continue to see above average performance from both Pope and Dubravka. Dubravka concedes on average 1.2 goals per game compared with Pope’s 1.35. Both keepers boast a positive post shot xG (a number above 0 represents goals a keeper has managed to prevent based on shot quality), Dubravka having his best season since 2019/20 with 0.09 and Pope a little way behind at 0.02.

There seems to be little to separate the two keepers when it comes to shot stopping, however, there is some evidence to support that the narrative that Pope has been below par this season. His save percentage and goals conceded are both below his career average since he joined Newcastle United. Despite this, his post xG is right on his NUFC career average, suggesting that while he has conceded a few more goals this season, he’s faced tougher shots to stop.

King of the box

Martin Dubravka and Nick Pope have been neck and neck up to this point, so can their command of their box and reliability to sweep up danger be the decisive factor in separating the two?

I wrote an article last season bemoaning Dubravka’s reluctance to venture out of his box and his overall deep starting position when it came to possession changing hands. To his credit, and probably indictive of his improved form this season, Dubravka has posted a career high in both defensive actions outside his penalty area (1.1) and average distance from goal for all his defensive actions (15.3 yards). In fact, he even beats Pope on the latter metric, who is markedly deeper than he has been in previous seasons with an average distance of 14.6 yards for his defensive actions (his average at Newcastle prior to this season was 18.6).

However, Pope still completes about double the number of sweeping defensive actions per game making 2.1 of these outside of his box per game.

Pope also has a clear advantage when dealing with crosses into his box, which you may expect with his added height, stopping 10.2% of the crosses into his box compared to just 7.9% for Dubravka. Pope’s performance here is top five in the league while Dubravka is top 10.

These numbers show probably the first marked difference between our two keepers. While Dubravka has made significant strides in his performance in these areas, Pope’s command of his box and sweeping ability set him ahead of his teammate.

Conclusions and the future

When looking at all the data it’s easy to see why there’s a debate amongst fans about who should be the first choice keeper. There really is very little to choose between the two stoppers, especially this season where Dubravka has been enjoying a renaissance of sorts. Dubravka appears slightly more trusted in the shorter passes out from the back, but he isn’t as strong as Pope at launching the more direct passes we often utilise. Both are above average shot stoppers, saving the team in numerous situations. Dubravka has made significant improvements in the command of his box and his support of the back line but he’s still behind Pope at this.

We also have no idea of the intangibles each keeper possesses, the trust they instil in the defenders playing in front of them, the leadership they bring to the group. I suspect that it’s these qualities, married with Pope’s decisiveness in when to leave his box to help his defenders, that gives him the edge over Dubravka in Howe’s eyes.

What has become clear from looking at the data is that both keepers are below par in their passing from the back and while they perform above average on other metrics there is still room for improvement, especially as they are advancing in age. These factors are probably why we continue to be linked to bringing in a new keeper over the summer.

So, what about the keepers we have been linked to, how would they compare to our current stoppers?

James Trafford has been the name most heavily linked with a move to Tyneside since Burnley were relegated last season. Aaron Ramsdale has popped up on more than one occasion, possibly due to his prior connection with Eddie Howe at Bournemouth, and Lille keeper Lucas Chevalier has also been fleetingly mentioned.

Personally, I would immediately discount Ramsdale from the conversation. Even if you go back to when he was at the peak of his form at Arsenal, his numbers are all inferior to Nick Pope and Martin Dubravka. Given his recent struggles, I would be shocked if he ever had the ability/confidence to be an upgrade on our current keepers.

Chevalier is exceptional with the ball at his feet and has displayed incredible shot stopping prowess, both domestically and in the Champions League. Unfortunately, he isn’t particularly aggressive off his line and, despite measuring 6 feet and 3 inches tall, hasn’t got the best ability when it comes to dealing with crosses. He would be a fantastic signing but would probably need a second more commanding centre back alongside either Burn or Botman in place of Schar.

Trafford has delivered a record breaking season at Championship level and has much coveted Premier League experience. At 22 he is one year younger than Chevalier so has fantastic long-term prospects. His shot stopping metrics are fantastic, as you would imagine given the high number of clean sheets he has managed this season (he’s kept clean sheets in 70% of his appearances and has a post shot xG of 11!). He’s active off his line too, especially given the brand of football Burnley have played this season with numbers better than Dubravka and is an upgrade in terms of passing compared to both of our keepers. The biggest concern is his fragility at dealing with crosses, something of a surprise given his near 6 foot 6 inch frame. I suspect that as he matures, he can improve on the physical side of his goalkeeping and pull his numbers up here so I wouldn’t be too alarmed by his middling performance when defending his area.

All things considered, James Trafford does seem like a fantastic fit for Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the rumours around him joining us over the summer to continue.

Until then, I suspect Newcastle United fans will continue to argue over whether Nick Pope or Martin Dubravka should get the nod each week, but at least we have two relatively safe pairs of hands to see us through to the end of the season.