Sky Sports expert’s verdict on Newcastle United – Hopefully he has got it wrong once again | OneFootball

The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.

The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters/issues at clubs as well.

However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.

The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game away at Birmingham.

Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Birmingham v Newcastle game.

“Some may fall into the trap of believing in the momentum factor of Newcastle reaching the Carabao Cup final on Wednesday night. Firstly, it is an impossible metric to quantify so should be ignored when making betting decisions and there is evidence to support that making a cup final can actually harm your subsequent league form rather than boost it.

“Just looking at the last six non-big-six teams to make the EFL Cup final and their results between their win in the second leg and the final does show a correlation of form loss.

“In those 24 games, the clubs involved suffered 12 losses, five draws and just seven wins. There is evidence to suggest that making a cup final offers little momentum in the next set of games before the big day. Newcastle are included in that sample of clubs when they made the Carabao Cup final in 2023 – they were winless in their next three matches following their semi-final win, drawing to West Ham and Bournemouth and losing to Liverpool.

“Birmingham are running away with the League One title, averaging 2.33 points per games this season. That is only bettered by Liverpool (2.38) in the top four English divisions. Their midweek Vertu Trophy win over Stevenage made it 18 games unbeaten in all competitions – a run stretching back to November 23 when they were humbled by Shrewsbury. In the league they have kept nine clean sheets in their last 13 matches, conceding just four goals.

They can cause an upset here. Back them to qualify at 100/30 with Sky Bet.

“Score prediction: Birmingham 2 Newcastle 1

“Best bet: Birmingham to qualify (100/30 with Sky Bet)”

Interesting analysis as always, from the Sky Sports expert.

Difficult to disagree with much of that pre-Birmingham overview.

The home side are effectively a second tier team with promotion already pretty much assured, plus they have other factors going in their favour.

Birmingham won’t be facing the Newcastle United of Wednesday night, as Eddie Howe has made clear he feels he has to rotate his squad and protect certain players, so it will be a very different starting eleven.

Away from home and a sold out crowd, who have only seen their team lose once at home, to PL Fulham in the League Cup, this could well be tough.

When pointing out the kind of odds available on making it through to the FA Cup fifth round, I think that any neutral wanting to back Birmingham would be happy with those odds.

Newcastle United can of course still win and I think NUFC will do it, however, we will have to play well and have some of the squad players show they can step up.

The Sky Sports expert had this to say before Newcastle’s match last weekend…

“Fulham are a team I’m always drawn to but rarely make me any money. They are such a well-drilled, well-coached outfit under Marco Silva with an excellent process when it comes to their underlying numbers but they find ways not to win matches.  So, even though my instincts are telling me to get with Fulham here the likelihood is they’ll play well, do many things right in the game, but Newcastle will come out on top due to their better individual quality across the pitch. Prediction: Newcastle 2 Fulham 1″

This time he has gone for Newcastle United to lose, here’s hoping he has got the outcome incorrect once again.

Newcastle United upcoming matches:

Saturday 8 February – Birmingham v Newcastle (5.45pm) BBC1 and BBC iPlayer (FA Cup)

Saturday 15 February – Man City v Newcastle (3pm)

Sunday 23 February – Newcastle v Forest (2pm) Sky Sports

Wednesday 26 February – Liverpool v Newcastle (8.15pm) TNT Sports

(Weekend of Saturday 1 March –  NUFC will play in FA Cup fifth round if getting past Birmingham)

Monday 10 March – West Ham v Newcastle (8pm) Sky Sports