The Battle for Champions League: Four factors to determine your top-four bets | OneFootball

English Premier League

Iraola has performed minor miracles on the South Coast

Ste Tudor assesses one of the broadest, most hotly contested top-four fights in years, identifying a 7/1 punt into the bargain.

With Liverpool 1/4 favourites to secure a second Premier League title, and the bottom three increasingly becoming unmoored, we turn this season to a hotly contested top-four battle, because that's where most of the intrigue lies.

If we accept that Arsenal have bigger things to aspire towards and Fulham in ninth will eventually settle for a top-half finish, that leaves six clubs in contention and two places up for grabs.

It's all to play for and these four factors may prove critical.

Head-to-heads and run-in

When playing their immediate rivals, Villa and Forest have come off worst, picking up a meagre 0.8 ppg. Manchester City and Bournemouth have jointly fared the best, with 1.6 ppg.

The Cherries deserve extra props of course for not only beating Newcastle and Forest but demolishing them 4-1 and 5-0 in recent weeks.

Moreover, Andoni Iraola's side have played their immediate rivals the most (8 times) and have additionally faced Liverpool twice. What this naturally means is they have fewer 'top-eight' scraps remaining to the rest.

Indeed, when studying their remaining fixtures we find their next 10 commitments are against sides with an average league placing of 14th. If Bournemouth continue with the form they're currently in, they can hoover up a lot of points between now and the end of April.

Granted, they have an extremely tough run-in to conclude their campaign, ending with Arsenal and City away and Villa at home.

But if they're firmly in the reckoning at that late juncture then their present price will look very big in hindsight.

What's in the DNA?

What obviously counts against Bournemouth is their inexperience in this particular fight, the same logic applying to Forest.Both teams are currently reveling in the plaudits coming their way - all thoroughly deserved - but the nature of that praise is worth noting.

Pitched as high-achievers who continue to defy expectations that's all fine for the time being. But what about when the prospect of finishing top-four becomes a real and realistic possibility? What about when games become must-win and the pressure mounts?

Chelsea are historically well attuned to a top-four battle but pertinently only Trevoh Chalobah and Reece James were around back in 2021/22 when the Blues last competed in one.

As for Man City, they are used to lording it up at the summit. A gnarly dust-up to secure Champions League football is a largely unfamiliar task for them.

Of the six, it is Newcastle and Villa who have the most learned know-how though interestingly the latter face a very different challenge to last season.

Then, Unai Emery's men won only three of their last 11 and nearly blew their chances. Now they're part of the chasing pack.Top-four may be beyond the Midlands giant this time out, being several points adrift of multiple clubs. Top-six, however, is well within their means after a successful transfer window and offers up tremendous value.

Difference makers

Titles, top-four and survival are so often attained via an individual making the difference in tight contests. Getting their team over the line.

In this regard, Erling Haaland is an obvious shout, firing 19 goals in 24 outings in what has generally - and perhaps bizarrely - been viewed as an underwhelming season from the Striking Viking.

His six goals in six games in recent weeks should strike fear into the upper echelons of the Premier League.

Then there's Alexander Isak, who has spectacularly ignited since recovering from a broken toe last autumn. In his last 11 league appearances the prolific Swede has notched every 71 minutes.

Chris Wood is another who is consistently securing valuable points for his side. No other player has scored more pure match-winners this term (seven).

We can't omit Cole Palmer here either, though it doesn't sit well backing a creative midfielder over an out-and-out striker. It's easier for goal involvements to dry up.The big unknown is Villa, with their plethora of new signings up front. Either one of Rashford, Asensio or Malen are more than capable of hitting the ground running.

But if we had to plump for one player to reliably get close to double figures between now and the seasons' end it surely has to be Haaland.

The striker should also be backed to claim a third consecutive Golden Boot. He is presently just a hat-trick away from Mo Salah and Liverpool may have the title wrapped up with a couple of weeks to spare.

The big bad wolf

Manchester City's problems have been well documented. A raft of injuries. The physical effort of pushing the boundaries of excellence season after season taking a dramatic toll. A midfield minus Rodri.

What's more, their troubles could exacerbate before February is out. This weekend they face Newcastle in a crucial six-pointer. After that come Liverpool and Spurs in quick succession. Both tend to bring out the worst in the Blues.

Yet with Nico Gonzalez set to address issues centrally, and Stones, Dias and Ake all finally returning to fitness, is anyone prepared to back against Pep Guardiola's winning machine ultimately grabbing third or fourth spot?

A failure to do so feels inconceivable.

City are admittedly short-priced to beat out their peers and avoid this season being portrayed as an out-and-out catastrophe. But they're short-priced for so many persuasive reasons.

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