Aston Villa v Fulham: BTTS the value play at Villa Park | OneFootball

English Premier League

Aston Villa have kept only two clean sheets at Villa Park this season

The battle for Europe intensifies this weekend as Champions League-chasing Aston Villa welcome Fulham to Villa Park on Saturday. Betfair writer Mark O'Haire is expecting goals.

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Aston Villa v FulhamSaturday May 3, 12:30

Villa fail to fire at Wembley

Unai Emery said his Aston Villa side were hugely frustrated and disappointed by their FA Cup semi-final defeat to Crystal Palace last weekend. Having enjoyed a strong run to the final four, the Villans' journey in the competition came to abrupt end as they succumbed to a comprehensive 3-0 loss against the Eagles at Wembley.

Picked apart by Palace's deadly attack, Villa pressed themselves but could not break down the Eagles' superbly organised defence with goalkeeper Dean Henderson saving superbly from John McGinn and Lucas Digne between the two opening goals before half-time. And the Villans had run out of ideas and energy long before conceding an agonising third late on.

Speaking post-match, Emery said: "When they scored the first goal, it was more difficult for us, and we only reacted after 2-0. Then we created more chances to score, and we didn't. In transition, they are very good, and they deserved to win. We have to be quick to react now because in the league we have the most important objective. We need to move forward."

Fulham leave it late at St Mary's

Fulham shrugged off an underwhelming first-half display to post a dramatic 2-1 success at already-relegated Southampton in the Premier League last weekend, bolstering their hopes of playing in Europe for the first time since 2011-12. Victory saw the Cottagers climb to eighth, a position that could give the Whites a berth in continental competition next term.

On the back of successive defeats, Fulham endured a first half to forget at St Mary's as they fell behind and failed to register a single shot on-target. But Marco Silva's second-half changes helped turn their fortunes around as Emile Smith Rowe grabbed the equaliser with his side's first shot on-target and Ryan Sessegnon grabbed the winner in added time.

Analysing the encounter post-match, Silva said: "We deserved the points. Our first half was not the level we normally play at, but we were the team that took the control. The win was needed. We wanted to bounce back and reignite the flame to fight for what we want. We are playing final, after final, after final and it will be like that every week now. We're ready."

Villa's formidable home record

Aston Villa have enjoyed recent meetings with Fulham, winning six of the last seven Premier League showdowns against the Cottagers (W6-D0-L1), including posting four successive triumphs against the Whites. Meanwhile, at Villa Park, the hosts have suffered a solitary reverse in 20 league dates with Fulham (W12-D7-L1), winning five on the spin here.

Aston Villa's 1.80 last-gasp loss at Man City last time out in the EPL ended the Villans' five-match winning streak in the league, though Unai Emery's outfit return to fortress Villa Park on Saturday. In front of their own supporters, Villa have returned a magnificent W32-D12-L5 across 49 home Premier League and European fixtures going back to the start of last season.

None of Fulham's 4.90 last 14 Premier League games have been drawn (W7-D0-L7) with the Cottagers losing three of their previous four away days (W1-D0-L3) at Bournemouth, Arsenal and Brighton. The Whites were turned over in the reverse but can boast a reasonable record against fellow top-half opposition (W7-D3-L6), including W3-D1-L4 away.

Goals forecast for early kick-off

Goals should be high on the menu for Saturday's showdown as two of the leading lights for Both Teams To Score winners in the Premier League collide. Despite their lofty league position, Aston Villa have managed just two home EPL clean sheets this season, with a league-high 14 (82%) of their 17 encounters here seeing both sides oblige.

Only the bottom-three have kept fewer shutouts than Fulham's total of five this term with the Whites recording just three on their travels - 12 (71%) of those 17 games as guests paid-out for BTTS backers, as have 25 (74%) of their overall league outings. A massive 14 of the Cottagers' 16 head-to-heads with top-half teams have also produced BTTS profit.

Both Teams To Score is 1.70 on the Exchange - not the most exciting of prices, but most definitely a value angle to attack. The odds imply just a 58% chance of success, in-line with the divisional averages this season, though the evidence above suggests that's still too big a price to ignore in what should be an enjoyable early kick-off with plenty to play for.

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Back Both Teams To Score @ 1.60

Mike Norman's Build Ups Tip:

Player to have More Shots on Target

Aston Villa host Fulham on Saturday afternoon and it's now turned into a must-win game in their quest to finish in the top five given their defeat to Manchester City last time out in the Premier League.

Villa will probably need to take at least 10 points from their last four game to climb into the top five, but being out of both the Champions League and FA Cup they can now fully concentrate on the Premier League, and they'll be at as close to full strength as possible for each outing, starting with the visit of Fulham.

With home advantage I expect Villa to win, and in a Shots on Target Match Up I like the chances of Youri Tielemans beating Cottagers attacker Alex Iwobi at a very generous 7/2.

It's very possible that just one shot on target will win this Match Up, so Tielemans is fancied given his excellent form of late. He's registered three assists in his last four Premier League games and also in that time he's managed three shots on target, so he's a midfielder who definitely likes to get involved in his team's attacking plays.

Iwobi failed to register a shot on target against rock bottom Southampton last Saturday despite player 86 minutes, and he went a five-game spell from the middle of February to the beginning of April without registering a single shot on target against bottom-half teams like Wolves, Tottenham and Crystal Palace.

Granted, if Fulham cause Villa problems then Iwobi is likely to be one of their key threats, but I'm pinning my hopes here on just one shot on target winning this Match Up (though it could be more of course) and that Tielemans - who can be backed at 2/1 to have one or more shots on target in the game - is worth backing at 7/2 to have more shots on target than Iwobi.