Chelsea can finish top 4 if they keep up this vital stat under Enzo Maresca | OneFootball

We would really rather write about football here – trust us. We’ve spent so much time writing about transfers, ownerships, finances and legal disputes which we would rather be spending thinking about what’s actually going on on the pitch.

There hasn’t been too much football to write about so far for Chelsea – 5 games, and two of them have been Europa League games with an almost entirely different XI.

So what can we conclude from Enzo Maresca’s first 3 Premier League games? The games against Manchester City, Crystal Palace and Wolves should give us a fairly balanced view of where we’re at. The promising news is that on the most simple measure of statistical effectiveness of all (beyond just looking at the score lines), Chelsea are looking good.

Packed Chelsea preseason training, group generic.

Chelsea on course after early stages

If you take the xG Chelsea have created (that is, the quality of chances they’ve made); then subtract their xG against (the quality of chances they’ve given away) you’re left with a positive net xG of 1.7. Over the course of 3 games, that’s not bad. In fact, it’s the 4th best in the league.

The fact that Man City and Liverpool are already up to 5.1 and 4.5 respectively shows the gap in quality between us and the very best – but so far, we’re ahead of Arsenal, who have just 0.8 expected goal difference this season so far. It adds up to 0.56 xGD per 90, up significantly from our final total of 0.43 last season.

Keep in the top 4 in this stat all season and there’s no doubt it will be a huge success. There are issues to sort out without doubt, and this small sample size can quickly be flipped in just a couple of weeks, but it’s nice to have something positive to cling onto while we await our next game.