Club Brugge v Aston Villa: Back Belgians to wobble Premier League outfit | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Villa boss Unai Emery

Aston Villa may fall into the trap of underestimating Club Brugge's team sprit and defensive organisation, says Lewis Jones...

Club Brugge v Aston VillaTuesday 04 March, 17:45

Brilliant Brugge are being underestimated again

I have a confession to make. I've got a soft spot for Club Brugge so my analysis ahead of this Champions League last-16 tie might be swayed by a little bit of bias.

They've landed me a few gambles this season as I've had an uncanny habit of catching them right when the market has gone against them. I'll put the trumpet away now.

And boy has the market opposed them in this competition. I'm a bit of a sucker for a team that is well organised and restricts so-called superior teams from creating high-quality chances. Club Brugge fit the bill.

Following defeat to AC Milan in their second league phase game after trying to play the way they do in their domestic league they switched to a more pragmatic style and it's been a shift in strategy that has led them to this amazing adventure into uncharted deep Champions League waters.

Only Manchester City have managed to score more than one goal against them in their last seven Champions League matches - that's an overall per game goal conceded average of 1.1. It showcases just what an excellently organised team they are.

And to beat Atalanta, who are such a dangerous team in knockout football, 5-2 on aggregate was remarkable.

Yes, the Belgians overachieved hugely based on the metrics in a very one-sided second leg that saw them ship 14 corners and an expected goals figure of 3.34 yet still win the game 3-1.

Nevertheless, there is something about this Brugge team that are proving very difficult for teams to work out. And that makes them a dangerous opponent for Aston Villa.

I have no reason to jump off the Club Brugge train here, especially with home advantage in their favour.

There are reasons to oppose Villa

Of course, Unai Emery is a master of European knockout football and he'll know staying in the tie rather than taking an unnecessary risk to try and win the game is the smart approach. He wouldn't admit it but Emery would a see a one goal defeat as a perfectly acceptable outcome with the second leg at Villa Park to come.

Emery hasn't exactly flourished in Europe with Villa away from home. You can't take too much hope from looking at Villa's record away in the Conference League knockout stages last season, where they drew with Ajax then lost at Lille and Olympiakos.

Plus, they've already lost to Club Brugge in this league phase. Hans Vanaken's 52nd-minute penalty, awarded after a Tyrone Mings handball, separated the sides in Belgium on Matchday 4.

I was hoping to get Brugge on my side on the Betfair Exchange's Asian Handicap line with a positive goal head start but the market is respecting them more than usual. The hosts are 3.05 to take a lead to Villa Park whilst Emery's men can be backed at 2.58 for the win - that looks a skinny price to me.

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