COLUMN: More than Luck – The Fine Margins of La Liga’s Title Fight | OneFootball

The Liga title race took another dramatic turn this past weekend as Atletico Madrid secured a last-minute 2-1 victory over Barcelona at the Olympic Stadium of Montjuïc. This crucial win propelled Atletico to the top of the table while ending an 18-year drought of away league victories against Barcelona. It’s been years since LaLiga witnessed a title race this tight among its traditional three powerhouses: Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, and Real Madrid.

These matches have been the kryptonite of the Simeone era, with Atleti often struggling to show their best version. Ironically, Atletico managed to win this game despite once again being heavily dominated by a Barcelona side that created far more chances. Yet, football has never been about ‘deserving’ to score – it’s about actually scoring. And Atleti are the ones who had the efficiency to score.

One might argue that this efficiency is unsustainable throughout a season. Yet, Atletico has repeatedly shown an uncanny ability to survive periods of poor performance and strike back decisively in late-game moments. Remarkably, they have scored 13 of their 33 league goals – a staggering 40% – in the final 15 minutes of matches this season. The list of Atleti’s late goal victims is extensive, both in Spain – Celta, Barca, Rayo, Alaves, Sevilla, Real Madrid – and in Europe – PSG, Leipzig.

Such results may not make sense to someone doing the tactical or statistical analysis of the games, but in my opinion, these moments are the most fun part of football. Many analysts and analytics enthusiasts dismiss these moments as luck or randomness, yet there is intellectual humility in acknowledging that not everything can be fully explained by tactics or numerical models.

While skill and randomness explain a significant portion of expected goal (xG) under- or overperformance, psychological and dynamic contextual elements also play a role. A player’s confidence, mental state, and focus can significantly affect their finishing ability. For example, a player in good form may take risks they wouldn’t attempt otherwise or remain calmer in high-pressure moments, improving their conversion rate. Conversely, players experiencing slumps may hesitate, overthink, or lose composure in front of the goal, leading to poorer outcomes.

Certain game scenarios, such as the scoreline, stage of competition, or presence of an audience, can influence how players perform relative to xG. A striker may excel in low-stakes moments but struggle under intense pressure, or vice versa. These context-dependent, dynamic factors are challenging to quantify but undeniably impactful and should not be conflated with randomness. A lot of stats analysis I see online makes the mistake of conflating the dynamic and contextual factors with the random, and such oversimplifications hinder the quality of the analysis.

We have a large enough sample from this season to acknowledge that what is happening with Atleti right now is more than luck. Their streak may not last forever, every good run ends eventually, but it’s a phenomenon that has already significantly shaped this season’s title race and will likely keep shaping it.

Barcelona, meanwhile, offers a sharp contrast. As noted by journalist Miguel Quintana, Hansi Flick’s Barca are yet to win a game they didn’t ‘deserve’ to win based on the underlying numbers. This might be great for those who want to validate their xG models, but it poses a challenge for Barca’s title ambitions. The teams that lift trophies often find ways to grind out victories in games where they struggle or are outplayed – something Barca haven’t managed to do yet.

This trait, however, is a hallmark of Real Madrid, who built their European empire on an uncanny ability to win matches they were outplayed in. There has been less discourse about it lately, but Real Madrid has been just as adept as Atletico at securing results in games where the performance metrics suggest they shouldn’t have. Real Madrid this season has also accrued a sizeable list of victims in Spain and Europe who played as well, if not better than them – Alaves, Villarreal, Celta, Atalanta – yet were defeated regardless.

The first instinct of many analysis-obsessed fans might be to consult the xG table, identify the team with the best underlying numbers, and declare them the most probable champions because their football is ‘more sustainable’. However, football realities are way more dynamic than that. The opposite will decide La Liga: which team can extend their good streaks the longest, navigate chaotic and fluctuating moments, and defy the limits of what we can understand and quantify in math models.