Concacaf Nations League: Why USMNT, Canada, Mexico and Panama Can Win | OneFootball

The 2025 Concacaf Nations League is upon us, and it’s a massive opportunity for the United States, Canada and Mexico to prepare ahead of hosting FIFA World Cup 2026 while giving Panama challenging opponents amidst their qualification journey.

While the USMNT enter as the only team to have lifted the Nations League trophy, they are far from assured a fifth title, with Canada bringing in-form players and coming off a semifinal Copa América run with Jesse Marsch and Mexico finding their stride in Javier Aguirre’s third stint as head coach.

Not only are the matches coming at a critical time for North American soccer, less than 450 days from the World Cup, but they also present a rare sporting opportunity at a time when the U.S. has infuriated both co-host nations, with tariffs against Mexico and Canada and threat on annexation against its northern neighbour.

Big matches, world-class players and heated international tensions. It’s everything that makes sports great as the Nations League hits LA’s SoFi Stadium.

Sports Illustrated looks at why each team could win ahead of the USMNT vs. Panama and Canada vs. Mexico semifinals on Thursday night.

Why The USMNT Will Win: The Draw, New Coach Bump, Pulisic's Form

Christian Pulisic will be key for the USMNT hope of winning a fifth Concacaf Nations League title / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Mauricio Pochettino has yet to coach a competitive game for the USMNT,  but his first tournament comes with some weight to it––the U.S. are the four-time and defending Concacaf Nations League winners and expect to win again.

2025 might be the most challenging, with intense competition among the other three teams and injuries to key positions forcing Pochettino to use players unlikely within the first-choice roster at full health.

With Folarin Balogun and Ricardo Pepi both unavailable, the U.S. will rely on Norwich City’s Josh Sargant to start the tournament up top but could quickly turn to in-form MLS stars Patrick Agyemang or Brian White should Sargant struggle.

The Americans’ most significant advantage in LA comes with the draw and their elite difference-making players while trying to build an identity under Pochettino.

Taking on Panama in the semifinal, the U.S. find themselves with the lowest-ranking team and a side that doesn’t have players thriving at the world’s biggest clubs, like Mexico or Canada. It probably helps that they’ll face a less politically-charged opponent as well, given President Trump’s threats to tariffs against Mexico, and annexation against Canada.

While the match will still be a grind, the Stars and Stripes should be able to come out reasonably unscathed and have more energy saved up than what the winner of the other semifinal will have, given the recent physicality in recent Canada vs. Mexico matches.

Should the U.S. go on to win the tournament, Christian Pulisic, Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie must continue to play crucial roles, especially in a final where Canada can match their talent, and Mexico are always a formidable opponent.

Pulisic comes into the camp in spectacular form for AC Milan as well and could be critical in elevating the attack, especially as they get used to some different personnel. With nine goals and six assists in Serie A, the Americans are getting the best version of Pulisic, with hopes that Adams and McKennie can win midfield battles.

At the same time, Matt Turner, Zack Steffen and Patrick Schulte are a strong goalkeeping trio, and each one of them has showcased their ability to steal games on the big stage, a factor as the new head coach appears less committed to Turner as the No. 1.

Zack Steffen made a career-high 12 saves for the Colorado Rapids in their MLS win over the San Jose Earthquakes, / John Hefti-Imagn Images

Pochettino will want to come away with a trophy in his first USMNT camp and has a strong enough roster to do so. The biggest question remains whether the team can find a winning identity while also building towards the World Cup.

Why Canada Will Win: Speed, Familiarity, Form

No team at the Concacaf Nations League has as much consistency as Canada / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

No team is heading into the Concacaf Nations League Finals with more pressure than Canada.

After shocking the world with a run to the Copa América semifinals in 2024, they enter the tournament brimming with a confident identity under head coach Jesse Marsch.

Led by superstars Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David, the Canadians have established themselves as a dynamic and pressing team that won’t sit back. At the same time, they’ve shown an ability to go head-to-head with the best and don’t get shaken by a physical game like they played against Mexico in the fall.

If Canada are to win this tournament, it will come down to speed, familiarity and depth. Even with some players injured, the team is flush with pace with Davies, Jacob Shaffelburg, Tajon Buchanan and Daniel Jebbison in attack, and Moïse Bombito––the fastest player in Europe’s top five leagues in 2024, at center back.

Canada's Moïse Bombito was the fastest player in Europe's top five leagues in 2024. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Davies and David are still the team's star players, but the midfield depth allows Canada to battle opponents of any quality. Ismaël Koné has rediscovered his patient, progressive form with Rennes, while FC Porto’s Stephen Eustáquio brings veteran poise as a two-way midfielder.

If Marsch opts for different options in the central pairing, there is a defensively sound Mathieu Choiniere, who has been a defensive midfield piece for Grasshopper Zurich, Hajduk Split standout Niko Sigur, or Toronto FC captain Jonathan Osorio.

While the team’s spine is strong, they’ve also had consistency, unlike any other teams. Koné, Osorio and Eustaquio have played significant minutes together, as has the entire backline of Davies, Bombito, Derek Cornelius, and Alistair Johnston and the likely starting strike partnership of David and Cyle Larin.

Canada also brings added depth to this camp, recently adding Royal Union Saint Gilloise’s Promise David and AFC Bournemouth’s Daniel Jebbison, with the former ranking 16th in the European Golden Boot race with 25 goals.

Marsch has said this is the best CanMNT ever and has clearly stated his intentions to win a trophy. Add on the annexation and tariff threats against Canada from President Donald Trump, and there’s a layer of added emotion and motivation for this CanMNT squad, which sees no other option than winning.

Why Mexico Will Win: Aguirre Finds an Identity, Giménez Scores

Santiago Gimenez has never brought his club form to Mexico's national team. Will this time be different? / Brett Patzke-Imagn Images

As the USMNT and Canada thrive, the Mexican men’s national team is slowly finding their way back into contention. It wouldn’t shock anyone to see them win outright, but a loss to Canada wouldn’t be surprising, either.

In the fall friendlies against Canada, New Zealand and the USMNT, they played with a physically demanding edge, committing 24 fouls against Canada and 14 against the U.S. Much of that came because they struggled to defend pace. Still, the bright side came through the challenges they won without fouling.

With head coach Javier Aguirre finally finding a bit of an identity, Mexico will have to look to their midfield to create chances. For the first time in years, they enter with in-form strikers in Fulham’s Raul Jiménez and AC Milan’s Santiago Giménez, but don’t have a clear path for chance creation.

Raul Jimenez will hope to carry his form with Fulham into the Concacaf Nations League / Erich Schlegel-Imagn Images

Should they win the trophy, it must be on the back of Giménez bringing his club form to El Tri. He’s scored 19 goals this season with Feyenoord and AC Milan but has always struggled with the national team, only having four goals in 32 appearances, a trend he’ll have to break should Mexico take anything from the tournament.

They have a tough draw against Canada and are the slight underdogs on many betting sites, but they will be in the fight. It might not be a pretty game, but fighting their way to the Nations League Trophy is possible, especially if their strikers hit form and Club América goalkeeper Luis Malagón brings his club form to these games.

Why Panama Will Win: Carrasquilla Plays His Best Soccer Ever

Liga MS star Adalberto Carrasquilla is the key piece to Panama's midfield / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Thomas Christiansen’s side faces an uphill battle this week, but it’s not impossible. With the USMNT struggling for established attacking talent, there’s a scenario where Panama scores one, and the Americans aren’t able to score.

Given the available talent, winning the entire tournament is unlikely. Still, it’s a possibility.

They will have Marseille right back Murillo likely marking Pulisc in the semifinal, and that’s a matchup that they can feel pretty confident in but struggle with, offering much contest at center back and in attack.

A goal, however, will undoubtedly have to come through attacking midfielder Adalberto Carrasquilla, who showcased dynamic skill with the Houston Dynamo in MLS before moving to Liga MX’ Pumas in the offseason. A skilled transitional midfielder, he is one of the few elite game-breakers Panama would need should they find success in his tournament.

La Marea Roja has never scored past the quarterfinals of the Concacaf Nations League. Still, in their third time in the final four, they’re hopeful not just to get a goal but to turn some heads. Things can get interesting if they score first, too, not having lost in nine matches when doing that.