Euro 2024 Day 13 Predictions: Back 7/2 Provod Card with the Betfair Exchange | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Jimmy says back Provod to be booked for Czechia against Turkey

The last round of the group sages sees the conclusion of Group E and F and with plenty still to be decided Jimmy The Punt picks out a best bet from each...

Slovakia vs Romania

This clash is one of the rare occasions where a draw could suit everyone.

A point will be enough for Romania to secure a top two spot and Slovakia as one of the top four third placed teams. It may lead to a tepid affair but I cannot get the draw onside at the prices available.

The price for everything to end square has crumbled to 2.12 as I write having previously been matched at 4.8 on the exchange.

The price of no first goalscorer, 0-0 and 1-1 correct score also short, I don't want to get any of those onside either.

As the game is expected to be played at a slow pace, taking the 2.42 for under 2.5 cards may be the best way in.

Slovakia have only picked up one card this summer and Romania three as this angle has clicked in half of their games.

A caveat is the referee appointment.

German whistleblower Daniel Siebert in incharge, you may remember him as the card wheeling maniac from Georgia and Czechia's clash where he dished out nine cards.

His previous two international games saw a combined total of 13 bookings and he has averaged over four cards per game this term.

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Ukraine vs Belgium

Romelu Lukaku would be leading the Golden Boot race, if it wasn't for that medling VAR.

Roma's loanee was denied a 73rd Belgian goal, for the third time this summer. Honestly, I am not bitter at all about my top goalscorer punts bad luck.

Unless Slovakia vs Romania is not a draw, only one of these sides can progress to the knockouts. Belgium only need a point, Ukraine need three. Belgium are 2.26 to top Group E, Ukraine are 7.2.

Although the odds are stacked against them, Ukraine have to go for this game at some point which lends itself to goals and Mykhaylo Mudyk looks their main threat.

The Chelsea winger tops their shots per game charts averaging 3.1 per 90. He has missed a 'big chance' this summer and with an xG per 90 of 0.23, anything around 4.50 for him to score anytime could be worth considering here.

Mudyk is currently trading at 6.8 on the Betfair Exchange which is certainly worth a punt.

Czechia vs Turkey

This really is the perfect storm for cards.

Two nations, with everything to play for, with a card happy referee overseeing proceedings.

István Kovács is the man in the middle, he has dished out six cards in one game at the Euros which takes him to 19 yellows and one red in his last three international games.

This is not a flash in the pan though as the Romanian has averaged 6.16 cards per game this term which includes eight red cards in 31 apps.

Cards have to be the play here with this referee and that is without considering the context of the game.

Every nation in Group F still has a chance of qualifying.

Czechia will have to beat Turkey as they start round three in third on one point. Turkey has to get a result that at least matches Georgia's if they are going to qualify and even have a slim chance of topping the group.

Czechia has six cards this summer and Turkey have picked up five.

I am fully hoping this gets out of hand but what is the best angle in?

To be honest, the best prices on total cards and booking are not available on the exchange so I think we are best off dipping into the player card market.

Czechia's Lukás Provod is the standout price. The central midfielder loves to get stuck in averaging 2.5 tackles and 2.5 fouls per game.

He tops his sides charts for fouls committed as well as fouls draw (2) so will be in the thick of the action on Wednesday.

Georgia vs Portugal

Portugal have already secured their spot in the knockouts as group champions.

Georgia will still harbour slim qualication hopes from Group F but at 8.00 it looks very unlikely.

The lowest ranked nations have been a joy to watch, featuring in two swashbuckling clashes with Turkey and Czechia.

The underlying data may tell its own story, Georgia have conceded the most xGA (6.1) of any side this summer. Giorgi Mamardashvili has been outstanding in between the sticks and is the reason his nation are overperforming this metric but Georgia have also been unfortunate in front of goal.

In both their games, Georgia missed gilt edge chances at the death to get a result.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia struggled to make an impact against Czechia but has constantly drawn fouls for his nation.

Roberto Martinez is expected to rotate here so I cannot say with certainty which right back Kvaratskhelia will be opposing but whoever it is is worth a look in the fouls market.

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