Euro 2024 Semi-Final Preview: Tour of Golden Boot and Player of the Tournament markets | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Spain's Jesus Navas has one job - stop Kylian Mbappe

The Euro 2024 semi-finals are upon us and Mark Stinchcombe is back to review the quarter-finals and look ahead to the rest of the tournament...

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Quarter-Final Round-up & Semi-Final Preview

England - 9/4 to Win Euro 2024

England are into another major tournament semi-final! Nobody knows how (except Gareth Southgate) but this will be their third semi-final in four tournaments under Southgate. Despite rumours of a back three formation, it was rinse and repeat from both the setup and the execution.

Slow passing, little movement and a lack of creativity. Across 120 minutes they had just 13 shots and created just 0.62 expected goals. Very much in keeping with what we've seen in their four previous games.

England have now won just one game in five in 90 minutes yet find themselves in the final four. However, they are now 9/4 from 7/2 to win the tournament. They're 8/5 to beat the Netherlands in 90 minutes but it's now just two wins in their last 10 games so nobody is going to be rushing to back that.

Netherlands - 9/2 to Win Euro 2024

The Netherlands 9/2 showed good character to bounce back from a goal behind to win once again v Turkey. Considering how balanced the game was they went off quite short priced favourites at 8/13 seemingly driven by Turkey's perhaps fortuitous victory over Austria (0.92 xG v 3.14 xG) plus more Turkish suspensions. And despite having less possession than the Dutch, they outshot them 15-11, won the xG battle 1.32 - 1.09 and created more big chances so perhaps that will give England confidence.

It's worth noting the Dutch once again looked susceptible from set-pieces with Samet Akaydin taking full advantage of a regenerated corner. However, England are really missing Harry Maguire from set-pieces and Mark Guehi and John Stones have managed just two shots between them this tournament and just one goal at club level last season.

Spain - 7/4 to Win Euro 2024

The other semi sees the gigantic clash between tournament favourites Spain 7/4 and France 11/4. Like England v Netherlands, there's not much to split them in the match odds with Spain slight favourites at 8/5. Both games are so tight based on the markets expectation of cagey games, what we've essentially seen across multiple games already, with under 2.5 goals at 1/2.

Spain have been the best team in the tournament but could easily have lost from a winning position against Germany. With just a 1-0 lead, I was really surprised to see Luis De la Fuente take off Yamal after only an hour, sacrificing both possession and territory, inviting the Germans onto them.

Unai Simon is an accident waiting to happen as seen by his poor clearance for Havertz's mistake, which is not the first time his mistakes have led to big chances given Croatia's penalty in the opening game and also his error at the last EUROs resulting in a Pedri own goal.

The suspension are racking up in key areas, and with Dani Carvajal absence, it could mean 38 year-old Jesus Navas lining up at right-back. You wouldn't fancy him up against the likes of Mbappe and Theo Herandez and he looks a bet at 9/2 to pick up a card. Primarily a winger and shoehorned into a full-back, Navas picked up seven cards in 25 starts in La Liga last season.

France - 11/4 to Win Euro 2024

France themselves have been as bad as England. Their top scorer is OWN GOAL and they still haven't scored from open play. You cannot argue with Deschamps' record but it still seems to me that he doesn't know his best team. Throw in star man Mbappe not comfortable with the mask and it's really not ideal heading into a semi-final.

One thing in their favour is their solid defence which has conceded just one goal, a retaken penalty, keeping clean sheets against all of Portugal, Belgium, Netherlands and Austria.

Golden Boot

Cody Gakpo is now standout favourite to win the golden boot at 7/5 from 7/2 despite not scoring and still being in a four-way tie, as the only player with three goals left in the tournament. Donyell Malen was potentially a live runner on two goals at 33/1 but he didn't even get on the pitch against Turkey.

Harry Kane 5/1 and Jude Bellingham 12/1 are the two big contenders back on two goals with England slight favourites to advance and thus play an extra game. However, given the low scoring element of the tournament with 19 of the last 25 games going under 2.5 goals, there might not be many more goals.

UEFA Player of the Tournament

This is a very competitive market with 10 players 14/1 or shorter. Again Gakpo heads the market at 7/2 but with the Dutch most likely not to make the final, he's perhaps not a standout candidate. The winner has always come from a finalist. Rodri is joint favourite alongside Gakpo at 7/2 but I think the wingers in Yamal 11/2 and Williams 14/1 have arguably been more impressive, alongside his midfield partner Fabian Ruiz 14/1.

No player has picked up more Man of the Match awards than N'Golo Kante and he's also a contender at 12/1. In my quarter-final preview I mentioned Jordan Pickford could be a live runner at 80/1 and he's still available at the same price. He ultimately made the difference with his penalty save in the shootout and if there is more penalty success for England, he would have to be in the conversation. He has history with two saves in the EURO 2020 final.

UEFA Young Player of the Tournament

This looks done now Germany and particularly Jamal Musiala have been knocked out. Lamine Yamal is standout 4/6 favourite from 6/5 and it's incredibly to argue against him with another assist in the victory also taking him to most assists in the tournament (3). Xavi Simons 10/1 also has three but plays for the competitions outsiders. If Spain make the final, it's Yamal's birthday the day before and you already know the commentators will be mentioning it non-stop.