Everton v Newcastle Tips: Back Toffees to win both match and card race at 5/1 | OneFootball

English Premier League

Everton boss Sean Dyche can lead Toffees to another home win

Everton are being underrated by the markets for their Goodison Park clash with Newcastle and Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - wants to get them on his side with an interesting cards angle in tow...

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Everton v NewcastleSaturday 5 October, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

This is a sticky spot for leaky Newcastle

People love piling onto Everton don't they?

Every defeat or winless stretches are overblown to suggest this football team are a basket case. Off the field that probably is the case but on it, they are a solid, well-coached and well-drilled football team led by a top-class operator in Sean Dyche. Just look at their points haul last season without the deductions. They grabbed 48 points, the same as Bournemouth and Brighton, whilst their defensive record was the fourth best in the Premier League.

Yes, they've wobbled at times worryingly this season but overall performance levels have been at the usual standard.

They remain a very tough team to play against, especially at Goodison Park, where they've won six of their last eight matches. That should have been seven from eight without that freak Bournemouth comeback, where the Cherries were outplayed for 85 minutes but scored three late goals to steal it 3-2.

I think Dyche has Eddie Howe's number too.

Howe has only faced Pep Guardiola more as a manager in his career than Dyche.

The pair have locked horns 16 times in their careers spanning Burnley, Bournemouth, Newcastle and Everton with Dyche boasting a 50 per cent win strike rate by being victorious in eight of those encounters. Howe failed to beat Dyche's Everton twice last season, losing 3-0 at Goodison Park before a 1-1 draw back at St James' Park. In fact, a Howe managed team has only beaten a Dyche managed one by more than one goal on just one occasion across those 16 meetings.

Newcastle have been miles below the levels they hit in Howe's first season and their defensive metrics always leave them vulnerable when priced up as the match favourites, like they are here at 2.23 on the Betfair Exchange. This is a team that have kept only one clean sheet in their last 19 Premier League away games. Completely untrustworthy, especially against such a strong home team like Everton.

As you can tell from the tone, I fancy Everton here at the prices. The 23/10 for the home win looks quite an exciting bet to me and there's further value to be had when adding some card action into the mix.

Play the cards right with Everton

Everton don't possess players that draw yellow cards off the opposition. They play with great directness and defend deep - teams like that tend not to see passages of play where the game is stretched and cynical fouls are given away.

Over their last 44 Premier League games, only 1.48 yellow cards have been shown to the opposition per game - only Sheffield United averaged a lower figure - with every one of their eight games this season seeing the opposition team carded fewer than two times.

Newcastle didn't pick up a single yellow card in either of the two meetings with Everton last season and only have picked up three in their last four meetings with the Toffees.

This opens up the possibility of Everton winning the cards race and the price on offer is bigger than my tissue had it. We're getting 10/11 here on Everton being shown more cards than Newcastle - a bet that has landed in 18 of their last 25 matches across all competitions.

Combining Everton to win and receive the most cards at 5/1 sure feels like an exciting bet to be a part of.

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Back Everton to win & receive most cards @ 5/1