Football Accumulator Tips: Back 4/1 'Match Odds 90' Acca on Saturday | OneFootball

Football Tips

Boro boss Michael Carrick will be looking for a comfortable win over Preston

The top two tiers of English football return following the international break and Andy Robson has picked out a four-team Acca using Betfair's Match Odds 90 markets in the Premier League and Championship...

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Leg #1 - Aston Villa to beat Everton @ 2/5

Under Unai Emery, Villa have a home record of W21-D5-L7. If we exclude fixtures against the top six from last season it's W21-D3-L3 with the three defeats coming against Man Utd, Newcastle and Leicester back in February 2023. Over the 24 games they have scored an average of 2.41 goals, finding the net in every game, and scoring at least twice in 17, while this season has seen the Villans win two of their three games, their only defeat coming against Arsenal as they lost the xG battle 0.43 to 0.39.

Everton have lost all three of their games this season, conceding 10 goals and scoring just twice. Last season the Toffees collected 20 points from their away fixtures, but their record against the top 14 teams was W2-D3-L7. Against the top six it was six straight defeats, conceding 18 goals with just two in reply.

This season there is no doubt that injuries have hampered the team, and going into the game on Saturday, Coleman, Branthwaite, Patterson and Chermiti will all be on the sidelines. Everton have the third highest xGA and have conceded just two fewer shots than Ipswich, despite the Tractor Boys having faced both Liverpool and Man City in their opening two games. Going forward they struggle with only three sides registering fewer shots and four sides having less shots on target.

Villa should have too much for an Everton side that will have limited confidence after conceding three goals from the 87th minute onwards last time out against Bournemouth.

Leg #2 - Crystal Palace to beat Leicester @ 1/2

Palace have not started the season that well with one draw and two defeats. They won the xG battle against Brentford but lost 2-1 and were unfortunate to lose to West Ham 2-0 as they narrowly lost on xG 1.08 to 1.05.

Since Oliver Glasner was appointed, the Eagles have returned results of W7-D4-L5 with two of the five defeats coming this season. At Selhurst Park, they have averaged two points a game with the only other defeat coming in a 4-2 reserve to Man City. They have been in fine goal scoring form at home with an average of 2.75 goals per game, finding the net at least twice in six of the eight games.

The Foxes may have escaped a points deduction due to PSR issues, but I am not sure that they will survive relegation back to the Championship in May. They were extremely fortunate to collect a point at home to Spurs on the opening weekend and then followed this up with a pair of 2-1 defeats to Fulham and Villa.

They have scored in each of their Premier League games this season but have averaged just 0.66 xG with only one side having fewer efforts at goal than the Foxes, whilst only four teams have conceded more shots on target in the division than Leicester. I have them 19th on xPts and on non-penalty xG ratio.

Last season the three promoted sides won just six away games from a total of 57 fixtures, losing 39. It is difficult to see anything but a home win here.

Leg #3 - Middlesbrough to beat Preston @ 4/11

Michael Carrick will be hoping that keeping hold of his squad throughout the transfer window will now allow Boro to move forward and fight for automatic promotion. They have started the season well with two wins from four and sit in seventh, but their underlying performances have been strong. I have them top of the table on xPts and second on non-penalty xG, shots in the box and shots in the box on target ratios.

No side in the Championship has had more shots than Boro. They have had a further 12 more shots than second placed QPR, which is impressive after just four games. They dropped points at home to Portsmouth as they drew 2-2, but they won the xG battle 2.25 to 0.67 and the shot count 29 to 5. Boro also lost away at Derby, but this was a similar story to the Portsmouth match in that Boro won on xG 1.83 to 0.44, and the shot count 20 to 3. Their two home games have produced four points with the hosts generating a total xG of 4.06 with an aggregate shot victory of 45 to 11.

Preston are already on their third manager this season. Ryan Lowe left after the opening game as North End lost 2-0 to Sheffield Utd to extend their losing run to six games at that time. They then appointed Lowe's assistant Mike Marsh, who lasted two games before they finally appointed Paul Heckingbottom. He has overseen two games, a 1-0 win over Luton where they lost the xG battle 1.63 to 0.27, the shot count 16 to 5 and the shot on target count 4 to 2.

The Lilywhites were slightly better in the 3-1 defeat at Oxford, but it was another loss as their record progressed to one win in their last 10 Championship games, scoring just twice.

Leg #4 - Sunderland to beat Plymouth @ 4/6

Wayne Rooney is proving that he is not a good manager. His record over his time at Birmingham and now Plymouth is now W3-D6-L12, a win rate of just 14%. It does not get much better if you include his time at Derby County and DC Utd with just 40 wins from 154 games, losing almost 50% of his games.

At Plymouth things did not start well with an opening day defeat at Sheffield Wednesday. The game ended 4-0, but the Owls had 25 shots, 17 shots in the box with seven shots on target and could have easily won by more. The two draws with QPR and Hull were good points, but they were fortunate against Rangers as they lost the xG battle 1.41 to 0.15. The draw with Hull is the only fixture this season that Argyle have won the xG battle or the shot count.

Sunderland have won four from four and only conceded one goal, keeping clean sheets against Burnley, Sheffield Wednesday, and Cardiff. My rankings have them third on xPts and second on non-penalty xG ratio. No side has conceded fewer shots on target or shots in the box than Sunderland this season and only Leeds a better xGA.

Despite a poor end to last season, Sunderland ended the term sixth on xPts and seventh for non-penalty xG ratio, so maybe we should not be surprised at the start they have made. Plymouth have won four of their last 20 games at this level whilst Sunderland have won as many in the opening four fixtures of this season. Sunderland should continue their excellent start.

For the very best expert football predictions, head over to my website, Andy's Bet Club. With the new season underway, I've got plenty of football betting tips for you to get stuck into, including a weekly Championship acca. There are also plenty of tools to help your punting on site, including my excellent bet builder stats, which provide the most important player statistics.

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