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Arouca v Rio AveMonday 10 February, 20:15

It was a damp squib in Turkiye yesterday, as Antalyaspor drew 0-0 with Istanbul Basaksehir, but our pal Tobias still posted a profit this week.

We'll kick off our week with a trip to Portugal, because Arouca face fellow mid-table side Rio Ave, and I feel like the home side are too short a price to win the game.

Arouca finished an incredible seventh in the Primeira Liga last term, and they were a barely believable fifth the year before that, but football gravity was always likely to kick in eventually. The Porto-based club are 12th in the 18-team league, and they have won just six of their 20 matches.

Goalscoring has been a major issue for Arouca this term. They have scored just 18 goals in their 20 top-flight games, and their xG figure of 20.5 shows they are creating very little. That goalscoring has picked up of late (they have scored nine goals in their last five games), but it's difficult to know how sustainable that spike will be.

Tonight's visitors Rio Ave held title-chasing Porto to a 2-2 draw last time out, and they have lost just three of their last 11 league matches. On the road they have improved, losing just two of their last five away games at this level.

Brazilian striker Clayton is having a terrific season for Rio Ave, with 11 top-flight strikes already. He has scored in seven of his last ten competitive appearances. Rio Ave have been scoring freely too, netting 16 goals across their last 11 league games.

I can't have Arouca trading at 1.98 to win here. They have won just three of their last 11 home matches in the league, and Rio Ave have been in sharp form of late. It's also worth noting that Arouca haven't beaten Rio Ave in any of their last nine top-flight meetings. I'll lay the home side.