GdS: Milan aim for UCL top eight – what the percentages say based on simulations | OneFootball

AC Milan moved onto nine points in the Champions League standings last night with a win over Slovan Bratislava, and a simulation has worked out potential outcomes.

La Gazzetta dello Sport cite Opta calculations, which include more than 50,000 different simulations, in determining what Milan need in order to finish in different brackets of the new ‘league’ phase of the competitions.

By winning the remaining three games against Red Star, Girona and Dinamo Zagreb, one of the top eight places is guaranteed. Getting to 18 points in total means accessing the last 16 without any play-offs needed.

Even with sixteen points (so two wins and a draw to finish) it is almost guaranteed at 98%. Dropping to fifteen points (two wins and a defeat) we enter the world of ifs and buts: the percentage drops to 73%, and there goal difference could become big.

With the current nine points the Rossoneri already have a 69% chance of reaching the play-off stage. At 12 points they would be certain of playing a two-legged tie to get into the last 16.

But the Diavolo’s goal, at this point, is obviously at least eighth place. As per further calculations, it would bring in a total of around €31m in performance bonuses alone.