Italy v France Tips: It's time for a 4/1 Frat party! | OneFootball

Italy v FranceSunday 17 November, 19:45Live on YouTube (Viaplay International)

It's hard to know how this one will play out.

Both teams have already qualified for the quarter-finals of the Nations League, so all that's left to decide is who goes through in first place and earns a seeding for next week's draw - group winners will face group runners-up in March.

Having lost the reverse fixture 3-1, France need to win by two clear goals in they want to finish top.

Perhaps that will lead to an open game. In a team sense, they have little to lose, although with Didier Deschamps coming under pressure, especially given the continued absence of Kylian Mbappe, you wonder if he personally can afford another defeat against a key rival.

Regardless of the manager's position, you also get the feeling that France will be happy to take their chances against anyone in the next round.

Perhaps Italy's approach will be to keep it tight and play for the draw they need to secure top spot. However, that hasn't been their attitude so far in this competition and prior to Saturday's matches, only Austria had scored more than their 12 goals.

Leg 1: Davide Frattesi 2+ shots

They beat Belgium on Thursday to continue their revival after a miserable Euro 2024 and a player who has played a big part in that is Davide Frattesi.

Despite limited game time at Inter Milan, he's shone for his country, scoring three goals in the group so far.However, it is his shot numbers which are worth noting in betting terms.

The midfielder has manged 2+ shots in all five Nations League games this season, yet he's even money to continue that trend. That looks decent, particularly given the problems in the French camp right now. They could only draw 0-0 at home to Israel on Thursday, while a number of regulars are missing, most notably Mbappe.

Frattesi has also had 2+ shots in three of his four Serie A starts this season. In this match he will be playing on his home ground, the San Siro.

In fact, I'm going to keep my focus on the 25-year-old with his fouls data also offering us an angle.

Frattesi has been fouled in seven of his last eight internationals, also committing a foul in seven of those matches.

He's started 11 games so far this season for club and country and the foul committed/foul drawn double has landed in eight of them.

4/1.