Jones Knows Notebook: Back Tuesday night 5/2 double | OneFootball

English Premier League

Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - has spied two value-soaked angles on Tuesday night's Premier League card and is advising combining them in a 5/2 double...

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Cunha's fouls won data on the rise

Matheus Cunha is everything to Wolves - and Vitor Pereira has played a blinder in pushing the Brazilian even more to the fore in the way he wants his team to play. Cunha is a Champions League player in a relegation fight. Cunha is the beating heart of this Wolves team.

Everything goes through him which explains why his fouls drawn numbers are on the rise and is a betting angle to exploit ahead of Wolves' home clash with Fulham on Tuesday night.

In all eight starts under Pereira, Cunha has been fouled at least twice.

In that period the opposition have fouled him 25 times to a per game average of 2.89. He has a style of play that looks for fouls, almost initiating contact in duels and timing his falls to perfection to draw the referee's attention.

It should come as no surprise that he's got 22 players booked since the start of last season. We don't need a card though for the first part of our bet to land, we just need him fouled twice at a price of 10/11 which is generous considering the current strike-rate.

Play your midweek cards right

As mentioned before, me and fast bowlers have got lots in common in that we spend most of our lives looking for edges.

One potential edge on my radar is midweek domestic matches and the cards lines.

There is some evidence developing that midweek evening kick-offs aren't producing the same number of cards as the overall season average and is providing punting opportunities.

Last season, Premier League games played on a Tuesday-Thursday averaged 3.9 cards per match which was lower than the overall average of 4.4 across the season. And when you just draw the numbers from the last 100 Premier League games played on a Tuesday-Thursday, the average drops further to 3.7 cards per game.

That type of drop from 4.4 to 3.7 of a card difference may not seem a lot but can make a huge difference to fine margin pricing and outcomes of card markets.

Even the overall trend in the Premier League in the last month has seen a downturn in cards. Of the last 69 of the last 104 Premier League games have seen under 4.5 cards land - that's healthy 66 per cent strike rate.

My instincts have taken me to the games where the cards line expectancy is bordering on the over 4.5 line which could end up being a very hard figure to hit in the midweek environment of lower cards counts.

Therefore, the best bet for under cards is to take the under 4.5 line in Chelsea against Southampton at 5/6 on the Betfair Sportsbook, which doubled up with Cunha, pays 5/2

When a big favourite takes on an underdog with little hope the game has the potential to be over from an early stage which in turn means the intensity drops and chances for yellow cards become slimmer from a probability point of view.

Recommended bets

Back Cunha to be fouled at least twice & under 4.5 cards at Chelsea @ 5/2