La Liga Tips: Back [3/1] bet builder on goals and fouls in talent-filled Clásico | OneFootball

Spanish LaLiga

All eyes will be on Lamine Yamal in the Santiago Bernabeu

Our MD11 preview features Saturday night's blockbuster at the Santiago Bernabeu, where Jamie Kemp is recommending a 3/1 bet builder on a game filled with dynamic action...

Football... Only Bettor. Watch the latest episode now.

🔗 Spotify

Real Madrid v Barcelona - Sat, 20:00

The first Clásico of the season is here, and we can all be pleasantly surprised at the quality of the match-up that looks set to take place on Saturday night. We knew Real Madrid were going to be good in 2024-25, but nobody could have expected Barcelona to be playing this well.

Here's the quick tale of the tape. Real Madrid are on a 42-game unbeaten run in La Liga, and can equal the all-time record - set by none other than Barcelona - provided they avoid defeat here. Meanwhile, the Catalans come into this game top of La Liga having taken 27 points from 30 available this term, and not to mention, having crushed Bayern Munich 4-1 just a matter of days ago. These are two genuine heavyweights staring each other down.

Despite all of that, Real Madrid are inevitably the favourites at 21/20. They're the reigning champions, the team on the unbelievable unbeaten run, and they're playing at the Santiago Bernabeu in front of their home crowd. We saw precisely in midweek what the latter signifies, with the home side playing awfully in the first half against Borussia Dortmund and then demolishing them in the second half once everybody had woken up.

To focus just on performance in La Liga this season, however, it's clear that Barcelona deserve plenty of consideration to spoil the party too. If we're to compare the performance of these two sides via expected goals (for and against), the data tells us Hansi Flick's side have been significantly more dominant in their performance so far. Barcelona's xG difference through 10 games stands at +15.34, a good deal better than Real Madrid's +8.96. Indeed, there's no question who have looked the better collective side in 2024-25 so far.

Personally, I'm not too interested in trying to predict the result here. I can see the pros and cons for both sides, but Real Madrid's ability to fashion game-changing moments out of nothing gives me pause. They could very easily be inferior on Saturday night and still come out of it with all three points.

Instead, I'm drawn to a game with plenty of activity on both sides. Barcelona's 33 goals in LaLiga this season are the most by a side after 10 games since Real Madrid in 2014-15, while the hosts can count on the combination of a raft of stars and a Bernabeu crowd who will roar them on at every opportunity. Throw in the fact that neither side have their first choice goalkeeper available and I expect we'll see both sides on the scoresheet.

Full stats

Powered by

Along with that, I'll throw in 2+ fouls won for the trio of Vinicus Junior, Lamine Yamal and Jude Bellingham. In a high stakes match with plenty of intensity, the talismen wide players will attract plenty of focus. Vinicius (2.6) and Yamal (2.8) are both averaging 2+ fouls won per 90 in La Liga this season, while a little further back, Jude Bellingham is an expert in drawing fouls in central midfield areas. Borussia Dortmund hacked him down five times in midweek, and he'll want to cover every blade of grass in this game.

Getafe v Valencia - Sun, 15:15

Poor old Valencia. After losing to a Las Palmas team on Monday who hadn't won in La Liga since February, Ruben Baraja's side now find themselves rock bottom of the division. For a club as grand and storied as they, it's an almightily bitter pill to swallow. Turning the ship around is going to be no simple feat, either.

Make no mistake, Getafe v Valencia represents a true basement battle in La Liga this season. The difference is Getafe are prepared for this type of situation; they expect to be in the scrap until the last day of the season if that's what it takes. For Valencia, their current reality brings nothing but resignation and frustration. They've found themselves again in a situation which doesn't correspond to where a club of their size should be.

While they're at a real low point having gone bottom of La Liga, I'd suggest this is the time to back against Valencia. With nerves heightened, players freezing up, and everyone having to take stock of the reality of their situation - after how much they overperformed last season - Baraja's side cut the figure of a fragile team. Besides, a look at the data so far tells you this is simply a team who are not performing in line with where they need to be to pick up results.

Valencia rank 19th out of 20 sides for xG this season (7.38), only ahead of promoted Leganes. And in worse news, given how much they relied on defensive performance last term, they've dropped off big time this term and fallen to 17th for xG against (15.75).

Getafe's games are very rarely high-scoring, but I see them frustrating the life out of Valencia in this one. I'll take them to get the win in a game with under 3.5 total goals.

Real Sociedad v Osasuna - Sun, 20:00

Things are picking up for Real Sociedad, and they're repaying those of us who had faith they'd get back to their reliable best eventually. Between adapting to some key departures and suffering some pretty bad luck on the defensive side early on in the season, things are settling down for them and their path forward is revealing itself.

I did say similar ahead of the Girona game last time out (before backing them to win), and a big 1-0 victory there should have an effect on them when they return to league action this weekend. Now is the time for them to start stacking wins together and getting back in the hunt for that precious top four spot.

Up next for them are Osasuna, who are one of the teams who rely most on their home form in La Liga. 13 of their 15 points won this season have been done so in home matches, with 87% of their total being amassed at El Sadar. On the road, they're winless in four games (D2 L2) this term and have only won three of their last 19 trips in the competition overall.

With Osasuna being so fragile on the road, I expect we'll see Vicente Moreno's side try to keep this one as tight as possible for as long as possible. Make no mistake, they'd be delighted with a point. And as for Real Sociedad, it often takes them a while to warm up in games and really assert themselves. They've scored just three first half goals in 10 La Liga matches this term.

However, given their promising form, I do expect La Real to eventually make the difference in this one and collect a second consecutive win. After his fine performance and winning goal against Girona last time out, Mikel Oyarzabal's building form after a tough start could well lead the way for the home side.

Recommended bets

Back Real Madrid and Barcelona both to score; 2+ fouls won for Vinicus Junior, Lamine Yamal and Jude Bellingham @ 3/1

Back Getafe to beat Valencia and under 3.5 match goals @ 6/4

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.