La Liga Tips: Barcelona to keep rolling with helping hand from Dani Olmo | OneFootball

La Liga Tips: Barcelona to keep rolling with helping hand from Dani Olmo | OneFootball

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·1 November 2024

La Liga Tips: Barcelona to keep rolling with helping hand from Dani Olmo

Article image:La Liga Tips: Barcelona to keep rolling with helping hand from Dani Olmo
Article image:La Liga Tips: Barcelona to keep rolling with helping hand from Dani Olmo

Dani Olmo has been a plug-and-play star for Barcelona


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Ahead of matchday 12 in La Liga, Jamie Kemp takes a look over three interesting Sunday fixtures, including Barcelona's Catalan derby clash with Espanyol...

  • Atletico to dispatch unreliable travellers Las Palmas
  • Dani Olmo to drive Barcelona win against Espanyol
  • Vitor Roque can cause problems at San Mames

Listen to this week's Football...Only Bettor Podcast!

Atletico Madrid v Las Palmas - Sun, 13:00

When Diego Martinez took charge of Las Palmas at the start of October, his side were on a 23-game winless run in La Liga. They hadn't won a game since February.

All of that is in the past now, however, with Martinez miraculously winning his first two matches in charge of the club, and in difficult games to boot: 3-2 away to Valencia and 1-0 at home to Girona. There's your first managerial bounce of the season, and no doubt some of the other strugglers will be looking on thinking they fancy a bit of that.

Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, are coming into this one off their worst performance of the current league campaign. Diego Simeone's side were completely overran in their defeat to Real Betis last time out, giving up 24 shots, just under 2 expected goals, and having their woodwork hit on two occasions too. Betis' margin of victory really should have been bigger, and equally worrying was the way Atletico were outworked and outfought on the day.

Simeone's men aren't in a particularly good place at the moment, but playing at home usually provides a safe haven for them in La Liga. Atletico are more proactive and more willing to take the game to their opponents at home, which pales in comparison to the way they've played on the road this season. They've only lost two of their last 35 games at the Metropolitano in La Liga, and taking care of bottom half sides usually isn't a problem for them.

Indeed, despite their upturn in form under Diego Martinez, the fact is Las Palmas are still very bad travellers in La Liga. They haven't won away to Atletico Madrid in the top-flight since 1969, going winless in their last 20 such trips, and failing to score a single goal across the last five.

Atletico need a result to steady the ship here, and I'll back them to overcome any periods of the game marked by low confidence by the time the whistle goes.

Barcelona v Espanyol - Sun, 15:15

As you may have heard, Barcelona are absolutely flying under Hansi Flick. The current leaders come into this derby against Espanyol with a six-point cushion at the top of LaLiga, and with a truck load of confidence after routing Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu last time out.

Suffice to say, the honeymoon period for their new German manager doesn't have an end in sight - not even close.

After beating Bayern Munich in the Champions League and then Real Madrid in LaLiga, following those up with a win against their Catalan rivals Espanyol will look particularly appetising too. The good news for Barcelona fans is - as they'll well know - this derby has been dramatically one-sided in recent times.

Espanyol's last victory against Barcelona in La Liga dates back to February 2009, in what was then a match-up between Mauricio Pochettino and Pep Guardiola on the respective benches. Across the 26 meetings in the top-flight since then, the Blaugrana have won 19 times and drawn on seven occasions. And in the last 13 times when Barcelona have hosted this fixture, they've taken 37 points from a possible 39 (W12 D1).

Here in the present, Espanyol simply look short of resources to be able to put an end to that barren run. They're fighting hard for manager Manolo Gonzalez, but consistently losing out in the game of chances created and conceded, as is to be expected for a promoted side. Across the division, the only side with a worse xG difference than Espanyol (-9.4) is Valencia (-10); a team mired in an institutional crisis.

Even with some rotations, this really should be a home win for a red hot Barça side - especially when your rotations are the likes of Dani Olmo. Their summer signing has had an injury-hit start to life in LaLiga, but he's been exceptional in the minutes he's played, scoring three times in just 214 minutes on the pitch.

Along with backing against both teams to score, I'll take Olmo to score anytime after being restored to the starting XI.

Athletic Bilbao v Real Betis - Sun, 20:00

Ernesto Valverde's Athletic have only lost one of their last 24 home games in La Liga (W15 D8), and even then, their one defeat was a pure smash-and-grab against Atletico Madrid, with Angel Correa netting a 92nd-minute winner on the counter. In the same period, no team have suffered fewer home defeats than the Bilbao side in La Liga (one - level with Real Madrid).

As you can see, facing Athletic on their own patch has been almightily difficult in recent times. Los Leones are truly suffocating when playing in front of their own fans, with so many teams getting mauled by the pressure that they apply; one that forces most to choose between giving them the ball back or face losing it in dangerous situations.

Since the start of last season, Athletic have made 262 high turnovers in 25 games at San Mames (a high turnover being recovering the ball within 40 metres of the opposition goal). The only side across Europe's big five leagues who have made more in that time, specifically when playing at home, is Manchester City at the Etihad (297).

While I expect Athletic to take charge of this game and subject Betis to plenty of pressure, I'm drawn to the away side's options when playing more direct here. Manuel Pellegrini's side put in an outstanding and dynamic display against Atletico Madrid last time out, and gave Simeone's men plenty of problems with their counter attackers and speed in transition.

Ez Abde has been in sensational form for Betis of late, and he's just the type of player who can drag his team up the pitch with his ball-carrying. Throw in the hard-running strikers like Vitor Roque and Chimy Avila, and the away side have some nice weapons to be able to throw at Athletic - or at least be able to hit back throughout the game when under pressure.

I don't know if it'll be enough to yield Betis a big result, but I'll opt for Vitor Roque to score anytime here. He scored in his last away game at Osasuna, has had nine shots on target in his last five outings, and was unlucky not to score against Atletico last time out (six shots). The Brazilian is a livewire who should have chances to hit on the break here.

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