Liverpool v Chelsea: Blues attacking stars worth chancing in 34/1 Bet Builder say Opta | OneFootball

The Premier League is back and it's the two form teams that make up the featured game on Sunday afternoon.

With both sides performing exceptionally well, there is the potential for this to be a tight encounter.

Let's get into it and see where the data suggests the value is hiding.

Difficult to pick a winner

The teams look like they will be tough to separate at Anfield, with both occupying the top two of Opta's expected points league table despite Chelsea currently being fourth in the actual standings.

The table is created by simulating the number of goals scored by each team based on the xG value of each shot taken. It is one indication that shows these teams could cancel each other out.

Both are currently experiencing their third-best start to a league season in the last 10 years.

For Chelsea, their only league defeat so far came against Manchester City on opening day, while Liverpool's was against Nottingham Forest last month - a team who also claimed a point at Stamford Bridge in the last game before the international break.

With home advantage, the Opta supercomputer gives Liverpool the edge going into the game, but Chelsea have won all three of their away matches so far under Enzo Maresca, including a 3-0 win over West Ham in their last such fixture.

Liverpool are unbeaten in their last six meetings with Chelsea, although five of those have been draws. Chelsea, meanwhile, have drawn five of their last nine league games at Anfield. That could be the way this one goes as well and it is available to back at 31/10 on the sportsbook.

Alisson is a big miss for Liverpool

Liverpool's defence have been undoubtedly brilliant this season, conceding just two goals in seven matches - at least six fewer than any other team - with five clean sheets.

Part of that success has been down to goalkeeper Alisson, who has the best save percentage (88.24%) of anyone to have played two matches or more.

While the defenders have allowed the third-fewest shots (64) of any Premier League team, Alisson has ensured a shot-to-goal conversion rate of just 3.13% - for context, no other team's rate is under 5%.

With Alisson missing through injury and Caomhin Kelleher likely to step in, there is a chance that the castle walls could fall down here.

That's not because Kelleher is a poor goalkeeper, he has actually performed impressively when deputising for Alisson over the last two seasons with a goals prevented figure of 2.9.

But it is a big ask of anyone to replicate the kind of form shown by the Brazilian, especially against the second-highest scorers in the division. Chelsea have netted 16 league goals, outscoring their xG of 14.66, and are just one behind Man City (17). They have scored three or more on five occasions in all competitions this season.

Liverpool have the third-best xG in the Premier League (14.03), which is testament to their attacking strength given that they have been largely unaffected by gamestate having spent just 18 minutes behind.

With just two Chelsea clean sheets in seven so far, we can expect the hosts to get in on the act too. Given that both teams to score is only a modest price at 2/5, the recommended move here would be to take advantage of both teams' attacking talent and go with both teams to score twice at 13/5.

Cold Palmer's coming in hot

For all of Chelsea's attacking ingenuity this season, it doesn't actually take their main man much in the way of xG to get on the scoresheet.

Cole Palmer has scored six league goals this season and became the first player ever to score four goals in the first half of a Premier League game in Chelsea's 4-2 victory over Brighton last month.

Palmer achieved those four goals from an xG of just 1.83 within the opening 45 minutes and generated a total of 2.4 xG during the match, while he has outscored his total xG by 1.64.

He also has five assists to go with his goals this season - the second-most in the Premier League - so represents fantastic value in the score or assist market at 17/10.

Another Chelsea man performing well alongside Palmer is Noni Madueke, who ranks seventh for xG overperformance having netted four times from an xG of just 1.9.

Madueke and Palmer have collectively laid on a league-leading 15 big chances for one another this season, while the latter has assisted all four of the former's goals - which is again more than any other duo in the competition has managed. With Madueke at 23/10 in the same market as above, there is the tantalising chance we could hit both selections in one goal.

The pair also both average at least 3.4 shots per match, which makes Madueke's price of [5/6] for two or more shots tempting.

Who is going in the Brooks?

John Brooks will be the referee who takes charge of this game and, judging by his performances this season, it could be another busy afternoon for him at Anfield.

Brooks has given 22 cards in four domestic matches across the Premier League, Championship and EFL Cup this season, which averages out at 5.5 per game.

There have also been over 4.5 bookings in at least six of both Liverpool and Chelsea's seven league games so far this season. The visitors, meanwhile, will be without Marc Cucurella and Wesley Fofana, who have both already hit a five-yellow card suspension.

Given that there have been at least five bookings in the last four meetings between these two in all competitions, over 4.5 cards looks a solid shout at 8/15.

In terms of specific players to be booked, Levi Colwill could be worth your attention if he is shunted to the left to accommodate the suspension-enforced personnel shuffle. Colwill has already been booked twice and is 10/3 to pick up another card, which may come in an uncomfortable position.

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If you haven't used it yet and are reading this, opt-in and perhaps take a look at the below option, based on everything we discussed above!

The following bet builder is available to back on the sportsbook at 34/1: