Monday Football Tips: Back card king Ze Ivaldo in 8/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

Bet of the Day

Ze Ivaldo: Nine cards in 19 games so far this season

Our football props column is off to Brazil on Monday night where a couple of value prices combine to form an 8/1 Bet Builder...

Santos v CearaMonday 12 May, 23:59

I'm usually pretty loath to get involved with the second leg of a tie which already looks won, so I'm shunning Monday's big game between Sheffield United and Bristol City which, in any case, has been well covered by my colleague, Mark O'Haire.

Instead, this props column is off to Brazil where a player-card bet stands out.

Leg 1: Ze Ivaldo to be shown a card

Santos' Ze Ivaldo has been a card regular in South America with the defender, on loan from Cruzeiro, having been carded in nine of his 19 starts so far this season.

Those numbers have continued a long-term trend - last term he was carded in 19 of 45 starts for Cruzeiro.

The bare figures alone suggest the centre-back should be going off around 13/10 for a card but we're getting 12/5 - that's a good bet.

It gets even better when you consider the referee is Felipe Fernandes de Lima.

Look at this season's stats and you'll see the official is regarded as one of the most lenient in Serie A but that data sample is based on just four games.

You are much better off looking at the longer picture of last season which saw Fernandes de Lima top the card charts for those officials who took charge of five or more matches, averaging 6.64 yellows per game.

He was also top with that filter applied when it comes to fouls per game (30). Notably, he's up at a massive 34.5 in his four matches in 2025, a figure which suggests his card numbers will rise soon.

Leg 2: Luan Peres to commit 2+ fouls

Those high foul counts point us towards a second bet and that's Santos' other centre-back, Luan Peres, to commit 2+ fouls at 2/1.

Peres returned to the starting XI last week and committed three fouls and that now means he's landed the 2+ bet in five of his seven starts this season.

Brazilian media are reporting Peres will keep his spot and so this looks a value price too.

It's given greater sheen by the fact that one of Ceara's most-fouled players is striker Pedro Raul - he's been fouled multiple times in six of his last eight starts and may well prove a handful for the home centre-backs.

Recommended bets

Back Ze Ivaldo to be shown a card & Luan Peres to commit 2+ fouls @ around 8/1

Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 292pts Returned: 308.3pts 2024/25 P/L: +16.3pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts