Nottingham Forest v Arsenal: Low-scoring draw appeals at the City Ground | OneFootball

English Premier League

It could be more dropped points for Mikel Arteta and Arsenal

Arsenal's title hopes took a huge blow at the weekend and Forest could further stall them, says Dave Tindall...

Football... Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode now.

🔗 Spotify

Nottingham Forest v ArsenalWednesday 26 February, 19:30Live on TNT Sports 2

Forest still fighting for top four

Third-placed Forest have taken four points off leaders Liverpool this season but they won't be able to do that against Arsenal. That's because the first meeting between the pair ended in a convinving 3-0 win for the Gunners at The Emirates.

Nuno Espirito's men also go into this one on the back of a defeat. They actually took the lead against Newcastle on Sunday before 11 mad first-half minutes left them 4-1 down. To their credit, Forest gathered themselves and won the second half 2-0, their third goal of the game coming too late to put any real pressure on the Magpies.

"In the first half I didn't recognise our team, we were so bad, but the second half was much better," was Nuno's concise summing up.

But on Wednesday they're at home and that could be key. The last time Forest appeared at the City Ground they demolished Brighton 7-0. That means they've taken 16 points out of the last 18 at home courtesy of home wins over Ipswich (1-0), Aston Villa (2-1), Spurs (1-0), Southampton (3-2) and Brighton. The other result in that run was the 1-1 draw with Liverpool.

No team has conceded fewer home goals than Forest and it's City Ground form that probably holds the key to them continuing their push for top four. With teams around them faltering it certainly seems a realistic prospect.

Disastrous weekend for Arsenal

Arsenal had good vibes going into the weekend. Friday's Champions League last-16 draw had paired them with PSV which looks very winnable and with West Ham visiting the Emirates and Liverpool travelling to Manchester City, there appeared a genuine chance that they could end the weekend five points behind the Reds and with a game in hand.

But no, the Gunners blew it. Instead of that favourable scenario playing out, they suffered the exact opposite. Arsenal were toothless in a 1-0 home loss to West Ham and then had to watch Liverpool put in a thoroughly professional performance and win 2-0 at the Etihad.

The table on Sunday night showed Liverpool 11 points clear. And although Mikel Arteta's men have a game in hand, on the exchange Arsenal have drifted out to 15.0 to win the title, with Liverpool closing to just 1.09.

Forest not a happy hunting ground for Gunners

Arsenal have had some difficult times at the City Ground in recent years. They did win 2-1 last season but their two previous visits ended in 1-0 defeats (Premier League, May 2023 and FA Cup, January 2022). In the latter,  Forest were a Championship side.

For this one, Arsenal are 10/11 to bank three points while Nottingham Forest are 3/1. It's 5/2 for The Draw although, quirk alert, there hasn't been a stalemate between this pair since 1995, a run that stretches to 14 matches.

With Arsenal having so few options up front due to a combination of injuries and poor planning, it's an optimist who wants to back them at that price against a Forest side which ships so few goals at home.

If Forest get in front, they could be hard to peg back although, to be fair, Arsenal remain tough to crack at the back too and boast the Premier League's best defensive record.

I think there's scope here to play what looks a likely scoreline: the 1-1 at 7.4 on the exchange.

Arsenal will struggle to score twice in the current circumstances and Forest, wary of the 11-minute madness at Newcastle, will be very disciplined.

The 1-1 scoreline has landed in three of Forest's 12 home games, including the recent clash with Liverpool.

Set-piece role reversal for Arsenal?

For a Bet Builder we could play a couple of angles.

Firstly, Arsenal made all the early headlines this season for their expertise at set-pieces. However, the goals have dried up from dead-ball situations and perhaps it's time for them to be on the reverse end.

Forest could be the team that punishes them from a corner or free-kick and their fightback at Newcastle came via two set-piece goals.

The giant defender Nikola Milenkovic is the one they usually aim for and the Serb was on target at St James' Park although that was via a piece of deft footwork rather than his head.

He scored in back-to-back Premier League games earlier this season so let's try Milenkovic to net again. He's a massive 14/1.

To add an Arsenal element, if (there's no if really!) Forest sit deep it means Martin Odegaard may be forced into shooting from distance, something he's not afraid of taking on.

A Milenkovic goal and an Odegaard shot on target pays around 30/1 on the Bet Builder.

Recommended bets

1pt - 1-1 Correct Score @ 7.4 0.5pts - Back Nikola Milenkovic to Score and Martin Odegaard to have 1+ shots on target on Bet Builder @ 30/1

Staked: 51.5pts

Returned: 44.47pts

P/L: -7.03pts

Previous:2023/2024 P/L: -£20.792022/2023 P/L: +£16.792021/2022 P/L: +£8.692020/2021 P/L: +£3.06