NWSL playoff predictions: will Orlando and Marta continue their brilliant season? | OneFootball

The regular season was defined by ...

The elites. Orlando, Washington, Gotham and Kansas City were the best teams in the regular season. And there was a 16-point gap between fourth-placed Kansas City and North Carolina, who finished fifth in the table. Collectively, the top four were responsible for 46% of the wins and 40% of the goals scored in the 14-team league. The players, owners and off-field developments associated with these squads formed most (but not all) of the league’s most fascinating storylines. It will be exciting to see which of them, if any, survive the playoffs. AA

Newcomers. Malawi import Temwa Chawinga tore up the league for 20 goals, seven ahead of fellow newcomer Barbra Banda in the Golden Boot race. Rookie Croix Bethune led the league in assists despite missing the last third of the season, and she was just one of a gaggle of new players in Washington who carried the Spirit to second place in the league. European veteran Ann-Katrin Berger took over in goal for Gotham FC, who allowed only 19 goals in 25 games. BD

Emotional farewells. Alex Morgan retired in September, while Christine Sinclair, the world’s top international goalscorer, announced her departure from professional soccer at the end of the season. Adding to a season of goodbyes, Brazilian legend Marta also concluded her international career in April, prompting widespread speculation that the Orlando Pride star may soon step away from the club level as well. JR

Orlando Pride’s record-setting run to the Shield, and the emergence of a very formidable top four. Whereas last season was a remarkably competitive table, from first place to last place, this year saw the top four really differentiate themselves. MS

The health of the league is ...

As good as it’s ever been. Kansas City’s CPKC Stadium has provided a blueprint for how teams can benefit from 100% control of their own facilities. Players like Banda, Chawinga and Bay FC’s Racheal Kundananji have given a jolt of excitement to the league, which should encourage teams to scout and buy more aggressively in a developing global transfer market. The recent CBA agreement between the NWSL and players not only lends stability, but also could be a bellwether for other leagues as it eliminates the college draft. Things are not perfect (facility issues in San Diego and elsewhere, ownership inertia in a few markets, a couple of bad branding/rebranding calls, no Decision Day), but by and large the trends are very positive. AA

Extraordinary. This league started out with the very barest bones – tiny venues, barely a presence on TV. And it had to do so, given the two leagues that had failed before it. There’s always a risk in throwing too much money after a hot league – see the NASL of the late 1970s and early 1980s – but the NWSL has attracted owners to whom any downturn will be barely noticeable in their bank accounts. The people who got things started deserve a lot of gratitude for laying the groundwork, but the difference in atmosphere between, say, a Washington Spirit game of 2014 and a Spirit game of 2024 is like the difference between a dad-rock band in a deserted bar and Glastonbury festival. BD

Reaching new heights, with the league surpassing two million in attendance for the first time during the 2024 regular season. This milestone reflects a steady rise in total and average attendance, with year-over-year gains since the league’s inception. Additionally, the new CBA announced in August delivered significant improvements in player welfare and pay. These developments offer hope for the future of the women’s game in the US and around the world. JR

On solid ground. With Bay FC in the playoffs and Utah Royals finishing a respectable 11 of 14 teams, it’s been another successful year for expansion clubs. Record setting transfers are bringing top international talent to the US. Another historic CBA was signed. The White House honored the NWSL champions for the first time. There’s more to do, but the milestones keep coming. MS

Best team that didn’t make the playoffs ...

It seems like the easy choice since they finished just outside the playoff spots, but Racing Louisville underperformed many of their underlying numbers, dealt with a lot of injuries, and hit bad form at a bad time, losing four of their last five to drop out of the top eight. AA

On paper, San Diego should have been so much better this year. They have the best center back in the world in Naomi Girma. Kailen Sheridan ranked ninth among goalkeepers in the Guardian’s Top 100 world player listing, when no other NWSL keeper made the list. The good news was that teen sensation Jaedyn Shaw tied for the team lead in goals. The bad news? She had three. Morgan played 13 games, scored no goals, and retired before the season ended. BD

The Utah Royals. The expansion side had a rocky start, which hindered their postseason bid, but their luck shifted midseason with the appointment of new manager Jimmy Coenraets and the signing of star forward Cloé Lacasse from Arsenal. By October, Utah’s transformation was apparent, and they were even displaying playoff-level form. With this momentum, they could be a formidable contender in 2025. JR

On the final weekend of NWSL’s regular season, Racing Louisville were the only team still able to break into the postseason from below the playoffs spots. They fell short, but deserve credit for their dynamism this year. MS

Your dark horses are ...

Bay FC’s biggest issue at the start of their debut season was defense, and they improved that markedly with the midseason addition of Abby Dahlkemper. They have Kundananji, whose dribbling can open up a game when it gets tight. They face a Washington Spirit team that has a few key injuries, including a season-ender for NWSL assist leader Bethune and, more recently, a torn ACL for defensive midfielder Andi Sullivan. It’s still a tall task for Bay FC to win away from home, but they already won two in a row to close the season and secure the playoffs – the pressure will be nothing new. AA

The chasm between the top four and the rest of the league won’t be easy to bridge. All of the remaining playoff teams have gaping holes. But the team with that intangible “it” factor are Portland. Can the Thorns get another big goal from Sinclair before she goes off into retirement? Will Sophia Smith and Olivia Moultrie terrorize opponents? Can Becky Sauerbrunn, who led the team in minutes played at age 39, pull together the defense in front of the revolving door of goalkeepers? It won’t be easy, but this team’s players have a lot of experience getting results in big games. BD

The Portland Thorns could be the postseason’s dark horse, propelled by an emotional edge with Sinclair calling time on her extraordinary career. In her final regular season game, the 41-year-old scored in her 200th NWSL match, energizing both the team and fans who braved the wind and rain. With a star-studded roster, including a resurgent Smith, Portland are poised for a deep playoff run that may surpass initial expectations. JR

Portland Thorns didn’t confirm their playoff spot until the final day, but I’d never rule them out in the playoffs. And while Kansas City finished fourth overall, I think they have the talent to make it to the final, if they can get past the Pride. MS

Big team at risk of going out early ...

The Thorns are among the most star-studded and recognizable squads in NWSL, and they’ll play the most storyline-packed quarterfinal of the bunch when they take on…another star-studded and recognizable squad in defending champions Gotham FC on Sunday. By virtue of this heavyweight matchup, both are at risk. AA

Washington’s injury list looks like an All-Star team. The Spirit are one of the deepest teams in the league, but this may be too much too ask. BD

The Washington Spirit. Despite having threats such as Trinity Rodman and Leicy Santos, injuries have plagued Jonatan Giráldez’s side, which could compromise their performance against an in-form opponent. Bay FC, though ranked second-lowest in the playoffs, have set the record for most wins by an NWSL expansion team and know they have nothing to lose, making this matchup a potential upset. JR

Anything is possible in the NWSL. To some extent, every big team is at risk of going out early. But if I were betting on an “upset”, I’d say Gotham FC-Portland Thorns is one to watch. MS

Player to watch ...

Rodman, because she will be key if the Spirit are to avoid a quarter-final upset. The USWNT star won’t be at 100% in these playoffs, having only played three matches with one start since returning from a back injury. But with leading scorer Ouleymata Sarr among Washington’s long injury list, Rodman’s skill with the ball at her feet, connection with forward Ashley Hatch, and ability to read the game and pop up in the right spots will be crucial and worth keeping an eye on. AA

Bay FC hold the record for the highest women’s transfer fee ever paid, spending somewhere in the $860,000 range for Kundananji. Through much of the year, she didn’t quite live up to the billing. But in the expansion team’s last two games, Kundananji assisted on the lone goal in a win over North Carolina, then scored twice in a 3-2 win over Houston. Is that a sign that she’s back in the form from her breakout 2022-23 season at Madrid CFF, where she scored 25 times in 29 games? BD

Winning the Golden Boot with 20 goals in 25 matches, Chawinga set a new league record and is a frontrunner for MVP. However, a recent knee injury that sidelined her for the regular-season finale raises concerns about her availability for the quarter-finals which could hurt Kansas City’s playoff aspirations. JR

Chawinga. There are questions regarding the record-setting Malawian forward’s fitness. But if the league’s topscorer is healthy, Chawinga will be vital to her team’s hopes of getting past North Carolina this Saturday, then a likely semi-final bout with Orlando Pride, and into the final at their home ground. MS

Semi-finalists …

Orlando, Kansas City, Bay FC, Portland. AA

Orlando, Washington, Gotham, Kansas City. BD

Orlando, Washington, Kansas City, Portland. JR

Orlando, Kansas City, Gotham, Washington. MS

NWSL championship ...

The final will be an emotional encounter between two legends who will retire at the end of the season: Portland’s Sinclair and Orlando’s Marta. Ultimately, Orlando’s stingy defense will be the difference in a 1-0 win as the Pride cap their brilliant season – and Marta’s career – with silverware. AA

Gotham FC won it last year, and they haven’t lost since 1 September. They’ve won eight of their last 10 against one draw and one loss. They’re loaded with international talent, both experienced and emerging, throughout their lineup. Final: Gotham 2-1 over Orlando. BD

The champions will be the Pride, who had an extraordinary season after narrowly missing the playoffs last year. The Shield winners combined a potent offense led by Banda’s 19 goal involvements with a strong backline anchored by Kylie Strom and Emily Sams. With a balanced, resilient squad, Orlando are well-equipped to secure the championship after a nearly flawless regular season. JR

Orlando Pride. They went 24 games unbeaten en route to their first trophy: the NWSL Shield. They have an aura of inevitability about them. And while they’ll face tough tests on the way, it seems likely they’ll propel themselves to the final and secure a second club trophy on arrival. MS

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