Opta Predicts Tottenham v Man United: Back Porro and Diallo to shine in 80/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

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On Sunday, we go to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for the battle of the Premier League's underachievers.

Let's get straight into it as we search for the best angles to extract some value.

Tottenham take it, just

At times, this season has felt like a competition between Tottenham and Manchester United as to who can outdo the other one in terms of underperformance.

The pair's respective drop-offs have been well documented but, by way of context, it's worth having another look before they face each other.

Manchester United are currently 13th in the Premier League table, 12 points above the relegation zone and 14 behind the top four. They are currently on course for their first bottom-half finish since the 1989/90 season, while placing any lower than their current position will make it their worst season since 1973/74.

Tottenham, meanwhile, are one place and two points behind them and could also finish in the bottom half of the Premier League for only the second time in 20 years.

While, according to the Opta supercomputer, there is no chance that either are relegated this season, they do have a cumulative 3.8% chance of finishing 17th, compared to just a 0.1% chance of a top-six finish.

United were beaten 2-0 at home to Crystal Palace last time out in the league, which was their fifth Premier League home defeat in seven under Ruben Amorim - the quickest any Manchester United manager has reached that mark.

Although they are away this weekend, it is worth pointing out as a mark of where United currently are that they have now lost seven of their 13 league home matches this season, which is their joint most at this stage of a campaign alongside 1893-94.

United's defeat against Palace was their seventh in their last 11 league games, meaning that only four teams have picked up fewer than the 10 points they have managed in that period.

The game itself also showed a microcosm of the issues that have faced Manchester United during this season, having failed to convert their play into goals when on top. They lost the xG battle in the match, but United did generate a figure of 1.12. They are, in fact, the biggest non-penalty xG underperformers in the league with a figure of -6.88.

A shot-to-goal conversion rate of just 8.78% - the fourth-worst in the Premier League - from 319 attempts proves that they simply aren't good enough at finishing to back in any meaningful way.

Instead, we have to very slightly lean towards Tottenham in a stance heavily influenced by price. It's important to make that point because Spurs are one of the four clubs who have taken fewer points than United over the last 11 matches (seven), having lost eight times in that period (W2 D1).

Spurs ended a run of four straight league defeats with a 2-0 win away to Brentford last time out in the league. While the balance of play suggested that they were fortunate to come away with three points, they showed that they are able to do what United have struggled to - take chances when they come, scoring the two goals from an xG of just 0.86 in the match.

It's also important to note that Spurs have already beaten United twice this season in the league and EFL Cup and, at 7/5, there is still enough juice in the price.

Expect goals from both teams

Regardless of the result, this game has the potential to be full of goals. Despite being 14th in the table, Tottenham are the Premier League's equal third-highest scorers with 48 goals.

They have only failed to find the net on one occasion in all competitions at home this season, in their defeat to Arsenal in September, and they have generated the sixth-highest xG in the Premier League (40.35).

It is also worth noting that Tottenham have won more corners than any other team in the league (180) and have scored the second-most corner goals (eight) behind Arsenal (10). Working out at an average of 7.5 corners per match, the 7/5 available for more than 6.5 Tottenham corners looks a good bet.

While the corner-to-goal ratio of 0.04 is unlikely to set pulses racing, the volume of corners Tottenham are having this season is significant when considering the flaws of Andre Onana.

Onana has the fourth-lowest save percentage (63.44%) of any Premier League goalkeeper to have made 14 or more appearances this season. He has also made three errors leading directly to goals - only four players have made more in 2024-25. United, meanwhile, have conceded 13 league goals from set pieces this season and have conceded at least twice in each of their last five meetings with Spurs.

But if we can be so confident Spurs will score, it stands to reason that their defence has been far too generous in 2024/25.

Tottenham have conceded 37 goals this season - only seven Premier League teams have let in more - and, having allowed chances worth 41.28 xG, are arguably lucky not to have shipped even more.

The performances of goalkeeper Antonin Kinsky haven't done much for them either, with his goals prevented figure sitting at -0.5 after just four appearances. Ostensibly, he would have been expected to save more than he has based on the quality of shots he has faced.

As a result of the above, both teams to score twice looks a promising shout at 23/10 and has been a winner on seven occasions across both teams' matches this season. Over 5.5 goals, meanwhile, looks massive at 6/1, with it having landed in two of Spurs' last five home league games.

Corners will be key for Spurs

Owing to the amount of corners that Tottenham are winning this season, it makes sense to look at who could threaten through them.

Pedro Porro currently ranks equal-fifth for shots from corners (11) in the Premier League and, while he has only scored two goals, he has taken the equal-fifth most shots (35) in the Tottenham squad alongside James Maddison.

Porro is 7/1 to score anytime and 5/6 to have two or more shots. He could also be worth backing in a Match Ups bet using Betfair Build Ups against Dejan Kulusevski using Betfair's new Build Ups tool. Kulusevski has scored just one goal in his last seven league appearances and has also had more than one shot just once in that period.

A more obvious pick for a goal is Son Heung-min, who has scored 13 times in all competitions this season and has taken 10 shots from corners in the Premier League. The 9/5 about him to find the net again looks generous.

He is also 3/1 to register an assist and comes into this on the back of becoming Tottenham's all-time leading assister (69) in the Premier League after laying on a goal for Pape Sarr against Brentford.

For United, no player has scored more goals (six) or provided more assists (six) for United in the Premier League this season than Amad Diallo. The Ivorian is 13/10 to score or assist here, having registered a goal and an assist in a 35-minute EFL Cup cameo against Spurs in December.