Betting.Betfair.com
·14 August 2024
Premier League 2024/25 Outright Tips: 4/1, 7/1 and 12/1 #OddsOnThat picks
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Betting.Betfair.com
·14 August 2024
Declan Rice: Scored seven Premier League goals in 2023/24
For my season-long Premier League bets, I want a chunky price which offers a bit of value.
Betfair's #OddsOnThat markets have plenty at short prices - some are odds-on - but they are not for me across a nine-month period.
There are plenty of bigger-priced options, including a section at 80/1+, and hopefully I've managed to dig out a winner or two at a decent price. I certainly feel there's some value to be had by backing the bets below.
Of course, if you've got your own ideas, you can ask the Betfair traders to price them up - simply send your request to @Betfair on X/Twitter using the #OddsOnThat hashtag.
England's 'holding' midfielders from Euro 2024 are paired up in this bet but both men look likely to be let off the leash somewhat back in the domestic game.
Mainoo was the breakout star of the 2023/24 season - who would have predicted he'd be starting a European Championship final 12 months ago? - and managed three Premier League goals.
But look beyond that fairly low figure and you find greater encouragement.
In 2024, Mainoo has played 22 games for United in all competitions and scored five goals. That's a return which suggests he can easily land this leg.
His goal in the FA Cup final shows the sort of player he's likely to be this season - proper box-to-box energy, moving into good forward positions when possible.
As for Rice, he landed his part of the bargain pretty comfortably last term, scoring seven times as Mikel Arteta gave him plenty of licence to join the Gunners' attacks.
The former West Ham man has long been touted for a more attack-minded role and he showed in 2023/24 what he can bring to the table.
Despite Champions League commitments, Rice started all bar one Premier League match last season, while Mainoo began the last 22 for United after only breaking into the side in November.
All things considered, 4/1 looks a good price here.
Card counts hit new heights in the Premier League last season as a clampdown on player behaviour was made - punishments being dished out more regularly for dissent and time-wasting offences.
The yellows-per-game figure duly rose from 3.62 to 4.22, while reds leapt almost 50% from 0.08 per match to 0.15.
The card increase led to 19 of the 20 teams having a man sent off last season and that immediately makes 7/1 look overpriced.
Notably, the 'odd one out' was Luton and they are no longer in the top flight. Admittedly, they are being replaced by Ipswich, who didn't see red in the Championship last season, but only four teams in that division received more yellow cards.
OK, players may well be more likely to keep their trap shut now (although that may be giving many too much credit) but the same rules remain in place.
The one new one which may result in a slight reduction in dismissals is the one which says penalties awarded for non-deliberate handball won't result in a red card.
The likelihood is this will narrowly miss again but at 7/1 it looks worth paying to find out.
Those old enough to remember the all-conquering Liverpool of the 1980s will know the words 'Anfield' and 'fortress' were often mentioned in the same sentence.
Jurgen Klopp's achievements ensured it came back into fashion in recent years.
Take out the no-fans, COVID season when there were literally more away wins than home victories, and Liverpool have lost two games at Anfield in six seasons.
Of course, the big difference this campaign is the absence of Klopp in the home dugout and we certainly can't be sure what the arrival of Arne Slot will bring.
Yet this isn't a worn-down squad like the one inherited by David Moyes at Manchester United post-Alex Ferguson and the pre-season signs have been good with United and Sevilla brushed aside in recent warm-up games.
There remains lots to like about the frontline with Mo Salah still at the club and ready to play alongside any combination of Darwin Nunez, Euro 2024 star Cody Gakpo, Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota.
Wataru Endo proved a shrewd acquisition last summer, as did Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai, and more can be expected from the middle of the park now they have all bedded in at their new club.
The goalkeeper, Alisson, remains one of the world's best.
The one worry I'd have would be the defence.
It was shaky at times last season and Virgil van Dijk didn't have a good summer in Germany. He still seems to lack a partner of the highest quality too.
Still, that looks built into the price of 12/1.
Of course, there's little room for error with this bet but history suggests the Reds will be tough to beat on home soil, Bet accordingly.