PSG v Atletico Madrid: Make odds-on Paris your lay of the day | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Ousmane Dembele will be a danger man at Parc des Princes

Their lack of a centre-forward looks set to trip up the hosts yet again on Wednesday night, writes James Eastham...

PSG vs Atletico MadridWednesday 6 November, 20:00Live on TNT Sports 5

Hosts lack goals threat

PSG's decision to not sign a replacement for Kylian Mbappe is starting to look foolish and could play a pivotal role in their crucial Champions League encounter against Atletico Madrid on Wednesday night.

When the France star moved to Real Madrid over the summer PSG manager Luis Enrique decided against bringing in a new striker, believing he had the tools at his disposal to ensure Paris would remain potent in the final third.

Three months into 2024-25, that decision is looking at best questionable, and at worst has potentially dealt a fatal blow - for one more season, at least - to PSG's long-standing ambition to win Europe's premier club trophy.

The lack of a top-class no.9 is increasingly difficult to ignore. In three outings in this season's new-look Champions League, the club from the French capital have netted just twice: once in their disappointing home draw vs PSV (1-1) on October 22, and once when goalkeeper Paulo Gazzaniga gifted them a late own goal winner in their barely-deserved 1-0 home victory vs Girona on September 18. At Arsenal on October 1, PSG lost 2-0, and barely troubled the Gunners' defence.

On the right and left wings respectively Ousmane Dembele and Bradley Barcola have made excellent starts to the season (more on the pair below). But the absence of a penalty-box threat is proving a massive problem. Out since August, Goncalo Ramos remains sidelined by injury. Randal Kolo Muani has fallen out of favour and may leave the club in January. That leaves just Marco Asensio and Kang-in Lee, vying for for the 'false nine' role that neither looks entirely comfortable in.

PSG too short

How does all this feed into PSG's prices on this game? It makes the 1.79 on the hosts claiming all three points too short. They failed to beat PSV at Parc des Princes and needed a goalkeeping gaffe to see off Girona on home soil, after all. They've done nothing to justify being odds-on versus superior opposition this week.

Atletico Madrid are 5.2 to win. They arrive on the back of a morale-boosting 2-0 home win over Las Palmas at the weekend, in which they were the better side. Like PSG, they've had problems in Europe: they surprisingly lost 3-1 (home) to PSG's Ligue 1 rivals Lille in their last outing, and were thrashed 0-4 (a) at Benfica in their previous game.

Man for man, however, the Spanish outfit have little reason to envy PSG at the minute and, in our view, are too good to continue under-performing at this level. There aren't enough reasons to back the visitors to win, but PSG are worth opposing.

Make Unders your second pick

In the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market, Unders would be our selection. On top of PSG's goals woes outlined above, Atletico Madrid will surely take a defensive approach here - at least for some of the match - in order to avoid the type of collapse they suffered in their heavy defeat to Benfica. At 2.12, Under 2.5 Goals looks a smarter pick than Overs at 1.87.

If, unlike us, you suspect PSG may be the more dangerous side, Dembele and Barcola would deserve attention in the Anytime Goalscorer market. Between them the pair have scored 13 of PSG's 29 (45 per cent) goals in Ligue 1. At 5/2 and 11/5 respectively, they would be the players to focus on.

Focus on Shots On Target market

Rather than backing Dembele and Barcola to score, we prefer the pair in the Player Shots on Target market. Dembele has had 18 shots on target in Ligue 1 and the Champions League this season at a rate of one shot on target every 42 minutes. He's managed at least one shot on target in 10 of the 11 games in which he's featured.

Barcola has had 18 shots on target at a rate of a shot on target every 52 minutes. He's managed at least one shot on target in nine of the 13 games in which he's featured.

Based on those stats, Dembele looks slightly better value at 8/13 than Barcola at 4/7. Given how reliant PSG have been on the pair, we would recommend backing both with single selections, or putting the pair in a double that would pay out at 7/5.

Now read more of Wednesday's Champions League tips here!

Recommended bets

Lay PSG @ 1.8Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.12Back Bradley Barcola 1+ in the Player Shots On Target market @ 4/7Back Ousmane Dembele 1+ in the Player Shots On Target market @ 8/13

James' 2024-25 Champions League P/L