Real Madrid v Arsenal: Back Bellingham to make his mark at 5/2 | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Does Carlo Ancelotti have another trick up his sleeve?

Arsenal stunned Real Madrid in the first leg but the Gunners won't find it easy in the return on Wednesday says Dave Tindall, while Ste Tudor adds a Build Ups bet featuring Bukayo Saka...

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Gunners in golden position

At 0-0 after 45 minutes of the first leg of this quarter-final tie, it wasn't particularly obvious where that Emirates match might go. So anyone who missed the second-half and decided to check on the full-time score later would have been astonished to see it ended Arsenal 3-0 Real Madrid.

Even more incredibly, that giddy evening for the hosts was inspired by two astonishing free-kicks from Declan Rice. The England midfielder is a beautiful striker of a ball but he'd never previously scored from a direct free-kick.

With Mikel Merino adding a third and Real unable to respond, Arsenal are now in a position not even their most fervent fans would have expected. The odds reflect it with the Sportsbook making the Gunners just 1/10 to qualify for the last four.

After a 1-1 home draw with Everton and another win for Liverpool, the Premier League title is gone so Mikel Arteta's men are giving this competition their full focus.

Has too much damage been inflicted on Real?

Real Madrid only finished 11th in the league phase but no-one was paying any attention to that ahead of their trip to Arsenal. Because they always find a way, don't they.

Well, this is pushing that idea to the extreme. Real Madrid have been ragged for a while and maybe the 3-0 first-leg loss was the night everything caught up with them. Despite a 1-0 win at Alaves at the weekend, they've lost four and drawn one of their last 10 games.

So, is the game up? There's lots of evidence down the years to suggest maybe not but perhaps it's worth rewinding to 2023 when Real were thrashed 4-0 by Manchester City in the first leg at the Etihad. Too much damage had been done and in the return, the two played out a 1-1 draw in Spain.

Markets still give some hope to Real

If we're reaching into history, how about another very famous game played between an English and a Spanish team when free-kick brilliance helped one side establish a 3-0 first-leg lead before the other produced a fightback for the ages to win the return 4-0 and go through.

I'm referring, of course, to Liverpool's astonishing turnaround against Barcelona at Anfield in 2019 after Messi's free-kick had helped the Catalans dominate and seemingly put the tie out of reach via a 3-0 win in the first leg.

Back then, Barcelona were 1.06 on the Betfair Exchange to go through and contest the final while Liverpool had traded at 25.0 to qualify. Liverpool's 4-0 win on the night was backed at 120.0.

There's much more belief in Real Madrid to pull off a Houdini act here. Carlo Ancelotti's side are 11/2 to qualify while they're 20/1 to register the 4-0 scoreline that will move them into the semis.

As for the match odds on Wednesday, Real Madrid are 7/10 to win on the night, with Arsenal 15/4 and The Draw 31/10.

Given the respective histories of these two teams in this event - Real are 15-time winners, Arsenal have made the final just once and lost - there is certainly scope for Arteta's men to get the wobbles.

Bellingham can strike

One thing I don't expect from Madrid is a limp exit. Even if it's late, the likelihood is that Arsenal fans could be shifting awkwardly in their seats at some point.

So, to cash in on that idea, I'll play the goalscorer market.

Jude Bellingham has a habit of scoring late, important goals and at 12/5 I'll play him here.

The England midfielder has scored in two of his last three home games - a 3-2 win over Leganes and a 4-4 draw with Sociedad.

And it's also worth noting that Bellingham has scored against Manchester City in both a Dortmund and Madrid shirt so he does well against English opposition.

Whether it be a consolation or something far more significant, he's worth a go.

Gunners card count could escalate

Although Eduardo Camavinga was sent off late in the first leg for two yellows, the only other card shown was to Thomas Partey. In other words, it wasn't a niggly game.

But it could be different in the return. Arteta will be desperate to keep Madrid building up a head of steam and ramping up pressure so tactical fouls and taking a booking are ways of doing that.

François Letexier (you'll know him - French, well-manicured hair) takes charge. He booked seven players in Real Madrid's 2-0 loss at Liverpool in the league phase and has shown 26 yellows and three reds in his six Champions League games this season.

Arsenal are in the bottom six in the Premier League's Fair Play table this season so can put it about and get into trouble.

I could just back cards but I'll make this Arsenal specific and have a bet on Away Team Total Cards Over 3.5 at 27/10.

Recommended bets

1pt - Back Jude Bellingham to Score @ 5/2

1pt - Back Away Team Total Cards Over 3.5 @ 27/10

Ste Tudor’s Real Madrid v Arsenal Build Up Tip

Back Rudiger to have more shots than Saka

Key to Arsenal's magnificent first-leg victory over Los Blancos was winning the midfield battle. To that end, Thomas Partey won the majority of his ground duels while Declan Rice put in a performance that will be talked about by the Emirates faithful for years to come.

Yet what is interesting when revisiting the clash is noting how ineffectual Bukayo Saka was as an attacking force. All night long, he got very little change out of David Alaba, the Austrian limiting the winger to just one completed cross. By the end of what was a highly memorable evening for the Gunners, their most dangerous threat had failed to post a single attempt on goal for the first time since returning from injury.

This is pertinent given that on Wednesday at the Bernabeu a very different narrative is set to play out, one that sees Mikel Arteta's side hunkered in, protecting at all costs their healthy three-goal advantage.

Which begs the question: If Saka couldn't produce a shooting opportunity when Arsenal were in the ascendancy, roared on by a passionate home support, what chance in Spain, where his forays forward will be restricted to occasional breaks, unsupported by Odegaard or Timber?

So who do we oppose him with? The odds are skewed towards Real players in a game that the home side must win so we will look past the obvious attacking talents and alight on Antonio Rudiger.

The German defender is a threat at ste pieces and has taken nine shots in his last six starts for Real. He has also scored recently when coming off the bench in the Copa Del Rey.

It may feel odd to go with defender over a winger but Real will surely have vast majority of possession and chances tonight and Rudiger is capable of landing this bet at a decent odds-against price.

Staked: 71.50pts

Returned: 53.67pts

P/L: -17.83pts

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