Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund: Back Unders to profit from Bernabeu showdown | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Kylian Mbappe was on target for Real Madrid at the weekend

Despite the attacking talent on show, James Eastham believes the goals barriers won't be broken when last season's finalists meet on Tuesday night...

Real Madrid vs Borussia DortmundTuesday 22 October, 20:00

Don't expect a high-scoring clash

Sometimes it's smart to go against the market - and that's the case when Real Madrid take on Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League on Tuesday. The odds suggest a high-scoring encounter is on the cards, with the even-money Overs line set at 3.5. Over 3.5 Goals is 2.18, with Over 2.5 Goals much shorter than you would find on many games at 1.48.

There's plenty of goalscoring potential packed into the two squads, and certain games involving both of these sides have turned into goals-fests this season. Dig a little deeper, however, and we feel the chances of this game having four or more goals are overstated.

Look at the raw goals stats for the two teams for starters. Only three of Real Madrid 13's games in all competitions have featured three or more goals this season. And the same applies to only four of Dortmund's nine games, too.

In other words, only 32 per cent of games involving these two sides this season have featured four or more goals. Translated into odds, those stats alone suggest a price nearer to 3.0 for Over 3.5 Goals would be fairer.

Second, cast your mind back to June and last season's Champions League Final between these two sides. The Wembley showpiece ended in a 2-0 win for Real Madrid. It was a generally cagey affair before Real claimed the trophy via goals from Dani Carvajal and Vinicius Junior in the final 20 minutes.

No two games are the same, of course, and Real Madrid have added the considerable scoring powers of Kylian Mbappe to their ranks since then. Yet Dortmund will draw some confidence from the fact they limited Real to relatively few clear sights of goal just four-and-a-half months ago. Such memories may persuade them that a conservative approach will pay dividends.

All of which leads us to make Under 3.5 Goals our main selection on the game. The odds of worth taking.

Adeyemi absence another reason to back Unders

As you'd expect, Real are clear favourites to win the match. At the time or writing, Carlo Ancelotti's hosts are trading at 1.5 to claim all three points. Dortmund are 6.6 to secure a shock away win, while The Draw is 5.2. Real are a little too short for us, but they've won plenty of times without playing especially well this season. For that reason, we're not prepared to oppose Real, either, and instead prefer leaving this market alone.

If you're looking for a player to back in the scorer markets, there's a stack of familiar names at the top of the list. Mbappe - who scored in Real's 2-1 win at Celta Vigo on Saturday night - is 5/6 to find the net, while teenage Brazil striker Endrick is 11/10. Vinicius Junior is 7/5 and Rodrygo is 8/5, while Jude Bellingham is likely to attract attention at 2/1.

For all the focus on Real Madrid's superstars, however, don't discount Dortmund's players from finding the net. After all, this is a team that beat Celtic 7-1 in their previous Champions League fixture, with four different players getting on the scoresheet. Guinea international Serhou Guirassy - who scored twice in that win over Celtic, including one from the penalty spot - is 12/5 to score here.

One player that won't be on the pitch is Guirassy's Dortmund team-mate, Karim Adeyemi. The 22-year-old Germany winger netted a hat-trick in that mammoth win over Celtic, and would have been a threat on the break here.

Adeyemi has been ruled out by injury until next month. So leave him off your coupons - and his absence is another reason why we favour Unders.

Recommended bets

Back Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.8

James’ 2024-25 Champions League P/L