Saturday Premier League Tips: Three cards and goals bets to back up to 9/5 | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best Premier League bets on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is back after the international break to recommend his best bets in the Premier League on Saturday...

Leicester v Chelsea SuperBoost

Nicolas Jackson is leading the line for Chelsea in fine form this season, netting six Premier League goals so far.

He's keeping out Joao Felix and Christopher Nkunku amongst others, and perhaps it is no surprise, as he has managed more shots on target than any other Chelsea player this season (15).

Indeed, only Erling Haaland (32) and Mo Salah (21) have managed more than Jackson's 15 this season, with the Chelsea managing 1 or more shots on target in every single one of his 11 Premier League appearances so far.

Can he do it once again in the lunchtime kick-off? Well, only Brentford (203) have faced more shots this season than Leicester City (195), so we've SuperBoosted Nicolas Jackson to hit the target once again, now 1/1, up from 1/3!

Everton v Brentford (Sat, 15:00)

Everton and Bretnford are the two cleanest teams in the division based on cards received and yet I can't resist a bet on cards given the referee is Chris Kavanagh. He is taking charge of his eighth game of the season and is averaging the most cards in the Premier League at a whopping 7.14 per-game.

It's not just the Premier League where Kavanagh has been card happy. In the EFL Cup, he showed six cards when Newcastle hosted Chelsea. Across the Europa League and Europa Conference League, it's totals of 5, 6, 8 and 4 and internationally in the Nations League, it's totals of 5 and 6.

Looking at the two teams involved here, Everton have only received 19 cards in 11 games (1.73 per-game) and Brentford only 17 cards (1.55 per-game). However, 11 games is a relatively small sample size and these two were in the top 10 last season for most dirtiest sides. Looking at their totals since the beginning of last season, Everton have received 100 cards at an average of 2.04 per-game and Brentford 108 cards at an average of 2.20 per-game.

Using these two figures as a basic input for our card expectancy here would give us 4.24 cards and odds for Over 4.5 cards of around 7/5. However, we know we have an above average referee, the best in the league when it comes to dishing out cards, so our expectancy has to increase.

This season the average number of cards per-game is 5.13 but we have a referee showing 7.14 per-game - 39% more. Looking at his total across all competitions, it reads 91 cards in 14 games, 6.50 per-game - 27% more than the league average. We can back Over 4.5 cards at a huge 9/5, much bigger than our initial 7/5 and that was before factoring in the referee. This bet has won in 12 of 14 games this season under Chris Kavanagh.

Bournemouth v Brighton (Sat, 15:00)

Just four points separate third from 13th in the Premier League and both these sides fall in that range as 12th- placed Bournemouth host Brighton in sixth.

Bournemouth should be very happy with their start to the season given eight of their 11 matches have come against sides 11th and above, especially following the sale of 19-goal top scorer Dominic Solanke. Confidence should be high at the Vitality Stadium having beaten both Manchester City and Arsenal in their two previous outings.

Brighton should be just as happy with their start to the season, if not more so, under new boss Fabian Hürzeler. Seven of their 11 matches have come against top half teams including all of the top five. And they should be encouraged by their away form, with a draw at Arsenal and a win at Newcastle.

Another trend both these sides have in common is goals. Bournemouth's matches have seen 30 goals (15 for and 15 against) at an average of 2.73 per-game. Brighton's have seen 34 goals (For 19, Against 15) at an average of 3.09pg. This is in no small part due to the Seagulls' willingness to get shots off. Both rank in the top five for most shots with Bournemouth attempting 15.2 per-game and Brighton 14.5pg.

It's no surprise that Over 2.5 goals is a regular winner with both sides equally adept at both scoring and conceding. Fifteen of Bournemouth's last 23 games have seen three or more goals (65%) and under Hürzeler, Brighton have seen eight of 11 go over 2.5 goals (72%). By backing Over 2.75 goals, we'll win at least half our bet with three goals.

Fulham v Wolves (Sat, 15:00)

Gary O'Neil got a much needed first win of the season last time out against Southampton but it only moved Wolves off the foot of the table by one place and still two points short of safety. The issue with Wolves is defensively, having shipped 27 goals in their 11 games (2.45 per-game) - by far the most in the league. Further back they've conceded 48 goals in their last 21 games (2.29 per-game). There haven't had a problem scoring - they've accumulated the same number of goals as seventh place Fulham (16) - and as a result, 73% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals.

Following Joao Palhinha's £42M transfer to Bayern Munich in the summer, there was potential for Fulham to struggle this season. However, Marco Silva has done a great job, so much so they sit second based on expected points. Silva has his team firing with them averaging the third most shots in the league (15.6) and as a result generating the fifth most expected goals.

Goals have been commonplace in Fulham games for a while, particularly at Craven Cottage with 14 of their last 19 going over 2.5 goals (74%). Last season both matches finished with three plus goals, including this fixture with Fulham running out 3-2 winners.

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