Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Atalanta – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction | OneFootball

Following the confidence boost against Udinese, AC Milan will be looking to send an even stronger message by beating Atalanta at San Siro on Sunday evening. Of course, that is easier said than done for the Rossoneri.

It remains a very difficult task to secure any European competition through the league, with Milan more focused on the Coppa Italia, but finishing the season well is still important. Tomorrow’s game, as such, should be a good one at San Siro.

With it being the Easter weekend, Sergio Conceicao didn’t speak at the usual pre-match press conference earlier today. Nevertheless, reports suggest that he has been working a lot on the new formation during the week at Milanello.

Game date: Sunday, April 20 Kick-off time: 20:45 (CEST) Venue: San Siro Referee: Marco Piccinini (VAR: Fabbri)

Team news

With the Coppa Italia decider against Inter scheduled for Wednesday, many were expecting Conceicao to make some changes to the starting XI for tomorrow. However, as per the latest reports, he will field a strong team in an attempt to build even more confidence.

Before delving into that, though, we need to remind ourselves of the injury situation. Ruben Loftus-Cheek is still out after undergoing appendix surgery, while Kyle Walker will have to wait a few more days following his elbow surgery (he could be back against Inter).

Emerson Royal remains out as well, with his return date yet to be decided. Mike Maignan and Santiago Gimenez, on the other hand, are back in training and will be at the manager’s disposal tomorrow. Especially the goalkeeper’s presence is important for the team.

Moving on to the starting XI, the switch to three men at the back worked wonderfully against Udinese and Conceicao will continue with the formation tomorrow. Not only that, he will also field the same players from start, opting for consistency.

Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia and Strahinja Pavlovic all impressed at the back and with Malick Thiaw having too many ups and downs, it makes sense to continue with the trio. The clean sheet against Udinese was, after all, the first one since February.

Alex Jimenez and Theo Hernandez will be hoping to enjoy life in their more elevated roles once again, having done well against Udinese in both phases of the game. In the centre, Milan will rely on the brilliance of Youssouf Fofana and Tijjani Reijnders, who have shown just how important they can be.

Finally, up front, Luka Jovic is ahead of Tammy Abraham for the No.9 role and that suggests the Englishman will start against Inter. Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao will complete the attack, so everything is what you would expect XI-wise.

Predicted Milan XI (3-4-3): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Jimenez, Fofana, Reijnders, Hernandez; Pulisic, Jovic, Leao.

The opponents

As expected, Atalanta have been a force to be reckoned with this season as they currently sit in third place with 61 points. It could have been even better, if not for a few missed opportunities, but Gian Piero Gasperini is heading for a very good result in his final season at the club.

Indeed, the manager has more or less confirmed that this will be his last with the Bergamo side which, after nine years at the club, rightfully made the headlines. Gasperini has remained rather coy when asked about the future but all things considered, it does seem like an appropriate time to call it.

The start to the season was a bit rocky, with just two wins in the first six games (1D, 3L), and the same tendency was seen a few weeks ago. Indeed, before the 2-0 win against Bologna, Atalanta lost three games on the trot and their spot in the top four looked challenged.

The Bologna win brought them back on track and the schedule for the season finale is rather kind on them, having been knocked out of the Champions League and the Coppa Italia. Milan and Roma are really the only big games left, so anything other than third place or higher would be a disappointment.

Some pretty big absences have to be taken into account, though, as Atalanta have Giorgio Scalvini, Gianluca Scamacca, Marco Palestra, Stefan Posch and Sead Kolasinac on the injury list. The Bosnian tore his ACL in the most recent game and will miss the rest of the season, which is a big blow.

As for the starting XI, it looks like Gasperini will make just one change and it’s a forced one, given Kolasinac’s injury. Rafael Toloi will play instead and it’s certainly not a bad replacement, even if the 34-year-old hasn’t played as much this season as in previous years.

Mario Pasalic, the former Milan man, will start behind the forwards and after the goal against Bologna, he will be looking to bag another one against his former side. Meanwhile, De Ketelaere recovered against all odds and will be on the bench for La Dea.

Predicted Atalanta XI (3-4-1-2): Carnesecchi; Toloi, Hien, Djimsiti; Bellanova, Ederson, De Roon, Zappacosta; Pasalic; Retegui, Lookman.

Head to head

Tomorrow’s clash will be the 148th meeting between AC Milan and Atalanta in all competitions. Historically, there is a rather clear advantage for the Rossoneri with 69 wins against La Dea’s 30, while 48 games have ended in draws.

The last few years, however, paint a very different picture as Milan haven’t beaten Atalanta since the 2022-23 season, losing three games and drawing one since then. Perhaps the San Siro crowd could help the Rossoneri turn things around tomorrow.

Speaking of the stadium, the last time these two teams faced each other there, the clash ended in a 1-1 draw after an absolutely brilliant goal from Rafael Leao. Atalanta were then awarded a controversial penalty, and Milan were unable to find the winner despite many good chances.

The reverse fixture, meanwhile, was one to forget for the Rossoneri as Ademola Lookman scored a late winner at Gewiss Stadium.

Key facts and stats

➤ After remaining unbeaten in five consecutive games (W4 D1), Milan have lost two of their last three Serie A games (D1) against Atalanta and could suffer two consecutive defeats against the Bergamo club for the first time in the top-flight since May 2014-January 2015 (with Clarence Seedorf first and Filippo Inzaghi then on the bench).

➤ Milan have lost only one of their last 13 home games (W8 D4) in the second half of the Serie A season against Atalanta – the one on 30 March 2008 (1-2) – while the last Rossoneri coach to have suffered a defeat in his first match at the Meazza against the Nerazzurri in the second half of the top flight was Nils Liedholm, in April 1978 (0-1).

➤ Atalanta have not played on Easter Sunday in Serie A since 1978 (defeated against Inter); on that same date, Milan won what is now their last match on this day (2-0 against Pescara). The Rossoneri and the Bergamo team have never faced each other on this holiday in the competition.

➤ It will be only the second time that Milan have faced Atalanta with at least 10 points fewer in the standings at the start of the day in a Serie A season (61 currently for the Bergamo team and 51 for the Rossoneri); in fact, in all the previous 127 meetings between the two teams, this has only happened once so far: on matchday 36 of the 2019/20 championship (-15 in that case) which ended 1-1, at the Meazza.

➤ In their last eight home league games, Milan have kept just one clean sheet (in the 1-0 win against Hellas Verona last February); in their first eight home games of the current season, however, the Rossoneri had collected six clean sheet, the most of any side in the period.

➤ After 12 consecutive unbeaten away games (W9 D3), Atalanta lost their last away game against Fiorentina (0-1) and could suffer two consecutive defeats away from the Gewiss Stadium for only the second time this season (the first last August); however, the Bergamo side are the team that have collected the most points away from home in the 2024/25 in Serie A (33, W10 D3 L3), fewer than only Liverpool (35), PSG (36) and Barcelona (36) in the current Big-5 European leagues.

➤ Milan and Atalanta are two of the three teams that have gained the most points from losing situations in this championship: 16 for the Rossoneri and 15 for the Bergamo team, both behind only Bologna at the top with 17 points.

➤ Considering only goals scored after the 60th minute, Atalanta would be first in the standings with 62 points: 10 ahead of the second (Napoli with 52), and 12 ahead of Milan with 50 points, together with Roma, Fiorentina and Bologna.

➤ Tijjani Reijnders, with 10 goals, all from open play in this Serie A, has become the second Dutch player to score double figures for Milan in a single season in the competition after Marco Van Basten (five times – 1988/89, 1989/90, 1990/91, 1991/92 and 1992/93). Among midfielders in the big-5 European leagues who have scored all their goals from open play, only Jamal Musiala (12/12) has more than the Rossoneri man this season (10/10, like Hamed Traorè).

➤ Mateo Retegui has been involved in 28 goals in this Serie A season (23 goals and five assists): only Mohamed Salah (45), Harry Kane and Omar Marmoush (both 30) have done better than him in the big-5 European leagues in 2024/25; furthermore, the only Atalanta player to have scored more in a single season in the top-flight was Filippo Inzaghi in 1996/97 (24).

Ones to watch

Starting with Milan, Theo Hernandez seemed to enjoy his new role against Udinese and it will be very interesting to see how he does against a better team. Clearly, not having to defend as much helps him, and the partnership with Rafael Leao could be crucial in attack tomorrow.

Speaking of the attack, it looks like Luka Jovic will get the chance from start against and although he didn’t score or assist against Udinese, he was important. By dropping down and using smart movement, he allowed Leao and Christian Pulisic more space towards the centre, stretching the defence to open gaps.

Photo by Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

For the away side, it’s impossible not to mention the league’s current top goalscorer Mateo Retegui, or Retegol as he’s also called. He was absolutely brilliant against Bologna so the fact that Milan have more help in the penalty box, thanks to the formation change, is very important.

At the back, Rafael Toloi should replace Sead Kolasinac but it remains to be seen if he will play on the right or the left. It seems to be the former for now, meaning he will be up against Leao. He will have to use all of his experience against the No.10, having lost a bit of pace over the years.

Prediction

Atalanta have been the better team throughout the season, no doubt about, but the playing field has levelled a bit in recent weeks. Milan are coming off a huge win against Udinese and the draw against Inter, while Atalanta have experienced some turbulent weeks despite the win against Bologna.

As such, while it could really go either way in my opinion, I can see the Rossoneri snatching a narrow win. Especially since Conceicao isn’t expected to rotate the team.

Milan 1-0 Atalanta