Simon Brundish: “We’ve had an amazing level of control, but we keep conceding cheap goals” | OneFootball

Liverpool v Southampton: Under Pressure Analysis and Tactical Breakdown

Liverpool’s 3-1 victory over Southampton extended their lead at the top of the Premier League, but the latest Under Pressure podcast for Anfield Index saw Dan Kennett, Simon Brundish, and Phil Barter take a deep dive into the performance. While the result was emphatic, the match threw up key talking points, from game state control and attacking efficiency to the rotation dilemma and Southampton’s soft goal.

Game State Dominance and Tactical Rotations

Liverpool’s control of game state has been a key factor this season, and Brundish was quick to highlight just how dominant the Reds were. “We’re literally up there with the best versions of Klopp teams,” he stated. Even when tied, Liverpool’s non-penalty expected goal difference (xGD) is 1.6—a number Brundish called “just unbelievable really.”

Barter provided the statistical breakdown, showing how Liverpool restricted Southampton to just 0.26 xG while generating 4.14 xG (including two penalties). “It’s a massacre on the xG,” he noted. However, despite Liverpool’s overwhelming superiority, Brundish pointed out a recurring theme: “We’ve only allowed 10.5 xG when tied this season in the league but conceded 15 goals from that.”

The selection choices also played a role, with Brundish explaining that Gravenberch’s inclusion over Endo was down to the faith the coaching staff have in him. “They’re not seeing any increase in metabolic stressors in his testing data, so they keep playing him.” This highlighted the careful data-driven squad management Liverpool have been employing.

Photo: IMAGO

Match of Two Halves: Why the Second Half Was So Different

Despite Liverpool’s statistical dominance, the first half didn’t feel as emphatic. Kennett admitted, “Watching it live, it felt close, but then you look at the stats and it’s an absolute battering.”

Barter’s numbers told the story:

Brundish identified Curtis Jones’ role in slowing Liverpool’s tempo, stating: “I’m a huge Curtis fan, but this was the worst version of Curtis—he slowed the game down.” The lack of dynamism meant Southampton had time to close spaces and dictate angles, which was why Liverpool struggled to break them down early on.

The introduction of Alexis Mac Allister at half-time changed everything. Barter noted how the passing networks evolved: “Suddenly, we were using Zone 14 more, Mac was in and around the left half-space, and Harvey Elliott was creating a triangle with Trent and Mo.”

This resulted in Liverpool pinning Southampton back and creating far more high-quality chances. As Brundish put it: “We dominated the second half, but you’ve got to score when you’re on top.”

Southampton’s Goal: Another Cheap Concession

While Liverpool were in control, Southampton’s goal was another example of the Reds conceding from minimal xG. Brundish was frustrated: “We’ve had an amazing level of control, but we keep conceding cheap goals.”

Barter agreed, describing it as a “really annoying, completely avoidable goal.” While some fans debated whether it should have been ruled out for a foul, Brundish dismissed that: “That’s clutching. It was just bad defending and poor decision-making.”

Robertson, Van Dijk, and Konaté all could have done better, but the biggest issue was hesitation in dealing with the danger. Kennett was blunt in his assessment: “Sometimes you’ve just got to clear it. Don’t take risks in those situations.”

Photo: IMAGO

Liverpool’s Attacking Depth Debate

One of the most heated discussions on the Under Pressure podcast was about Liverpool’s attacking options. Kennett sparked the debate by asking whether Liverpool’s forward depth was being overstated.

Brundish had a firm view: “We’ve got one world-class forward, five C’s.” He elaborated that while Salah remains an elite-level attacker, the other forwards have lacked consistency: “We haven’t had more than one of them playing well at the same time.”

“At the start of the season, Díaz was on fire, then he dropped off. Jota picked up, then he got injured. Gakpo had a good run, then he got injured too.”

Kennett countered with the big-picture stats, highlighting that Liverpool’s non-penalty goals per game are on par with the peak Mane-Firmino-Salah era. “If Salah is playing 95% of the minutes in one of the forward positions, does it really matter which combination of the others play?”

However, Brundish wasn’t convinced, pointing out that Liverpool are over-reliant on Salah’s output. “Mo is overperforming his xG, while the others are collectively underperforming. That’s a huge swing.”

Key Takeaways and the Bigger Picture

Liverpool’s victory over Southampton was another dominant display, but the conversations on the podcast highlighted key areas to watch:

Despite the attacking concerns, Kennett reminded listeners of one undeniable fact: “We’re 15 points clear. We’re at the same points total after 29 games as the 2018-19 season when we finished with 97.”

As Liverpool push towards another title, the battle over squad depth and tactical choices will continue—but for now, they remain in pole position.