Southampton v Chelsea: Back the Blues at 17/20 | OneFootball

English Premier League

Chelsea have W4-D1-L1 on their travels under Enzo Maresca

Struggling Southampton entertain high-flying Chelsea at St Mary's in midweek. Betfair writer Mark O'Haire is backing the Blues to deliver top honours.

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Southampton v ChelseaWednesday December 4, 19:30

Saints missing many

Southampton boss Russell Martin believes his side are "creeping up with belief" after overseeing a 1-1 draw at Brighton last Friday night. Old issues remained - Joe Lumley had to make a close-range save after just six minutes when his defence gave the ball away in their own box - but the rock-bottom Premier League outfit improved after the break.

Speaking on the team's performance at The Amex, Martin said, "I liked a lot of it. I think we have been better than that and not got a point. Second-half, I really liked. First-half, there was a lack of conviction and aggression in certain moments. They responded brilliantly. A good performance against a good team that could have been more than just one point."

But Saints must now shuffle their pack with Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Flynn Downes and Tyler Dibling all suspended, Aaron Ramsdale and Jan Bednarek still out injured, Paul Onuachu considered doubtful and Lesley Ugochukwu ineligible with Martin admitting, "We are probably without our five most consistent players, so we have to tweak and adapt."

Maresca cools Chelsea title talk

Chelsea remain third in the Premier League with exact same points, goal difference and goals scored as Arsenal - behind only in alphabetical order - though head coach Enzo Marasca has downplayed the Blues title prospects, claiming his young squad aren't yet ready to compete for silverware despite another eye-catching effort against Aston Villa.

Enzo Fernandez, Nicolas Jackson and Cole Palmer all scored in Chelsea's 3-0 victory against Villa on Sunday with Maresca saying post-match, "Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City players, they have all lived finals and competed for titles. We will be there soon, but this is one of the reasons why we are still far and not ready to compete with those clubs."

Meanwhile, Wesley Fofana could miss "10 to 12 games" after suffering a hamstring injury at the weekend. He was replaced by Benoit Badiashile in the heart of the Blues defence and joins Reece James on the sidelines. Malo Gusto, Noni Madueke, Joao Felix and Christopher Nkunku are all hoping to be all involved here after cameos off the bench on Sunday.

Blues firm favourites

Southampton have won their last two Premier League games against Chelsea, as many as Saints had managed in their previous 19 head-to-heads (W2-D5-L11). However, the Blues have only triumphed in more away EPL games at Tottenham (15) than they have at Southampton (14), with the visitors averaging a tasty 1.90 goals per-game at Saints.

Southampton 9.60 prop up the Premier League with a solitary success to their name since promotion (W1-D2-L10). Saints have lost the non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) battle in 11 of those 13 fixtures and are giving up 2.02 npxG per-game on average, whilst also sitting bottom of the Expected Points (xP) rankings over the most recent eight league encounters.

Chelsea 1.36 are third in the overall xP rankings and ranked fourth for both npxG generated, as well as npxG conceded thus far. Enzo Marasca's men have been at their effective on the road with the Blues boasting a W4-D1-L1 return on their travels, whilst also posting W6-D1-L0 when facing bottom-half sides this season by an aggregate of 17-5.

Chelsea and Saints cards appeal

Chelsea are understandably short-priced favourites to pick up maximum points at St Mary's but we can engineer a much more palatable price on the Blues by backing Chelsea to win and Southampton Over 1.5 Cards - the Bet Builder pays 17/20 on the Sportsbook.

Southampton have collected multiple bookings in 12 of their opening 13 Premier League matches, whilst Chelsea have been exceptional at drawing punishment from opposition outfits - 12 of their 13 opponents have hit 2+ cards against the Blues with five of their last six hosts earning a minimum of four cautions against the capital club.

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