Sunday's Premier League Tips: Back an 11/1 Jesko goal at Anfield | OneFootball

English Premier League

Jimmy thinks Josko Gvardiol's price to score at Anfield is too big.

Jimmy The Punt has found plenty of value on the Betfair Exchange betting markets for Sunday's Premier League action with five bets to follow

Manchester United vs Everton

There have been two games to observe what Ruben Amorim wants to do at Manchester United.

Not that I've been doing keen tactical analysis but Jamie Carragher did on Monday Night Football and he highlighted how high Amorim wants to get the midfielders and centre backs to squeeze out of possession. Casemiro, Christian Eriksen and Jonny Evans looked a bit uncomfortable but basically in the two games we have seen a spike in the outside centre backs' fouls count.

Evans committed three in 56 minutes against Ipswich, one more than he did across the previous 234 minutes domestically this season. With Lisandro Martinez and Luke Shaw returning to fitness I cannot be certain Evans will play Sunday. Noussair Mazraoui, on the other hand, has played every minute under the new manager.

Operating at full back, Mazroui has always been a tackle merchant averaging 3.80 but not committed fouls (0.8 per game) consistently. Against Ipswich, he committed two and at 3.45 his price to do the same against Ipswich appeals.

He has met this line four times this season but I think the positional change and tactical tweak should see him concede fouls more consistently. That and his direct opponent on Sunday.

Mazroui will be trying to contain Iliman Ndiaye.

Of players to play over 850 minutes this season, only Ipswich's Omari Hutchinson can match Ndaiye's average of 2.3 dribbles per game.

He has been fouled at least once in all of his 10 starts with his opposite number hitting this line five times.

I'll also be covering Mazroui over 2.5 fouls at 7/1 with the Sportsbook but keep an eye out for the Player Fouls Matchup market in case we get a price on Mazroui fouls on Ndiaye. With the game not on the telly I don't think it will be priced though.

Tottenham vs Fulham

There is a trend with Tottenham and it explains why they are currently 40/1 to win the league.

Basically, they are inconsistent. Great against good teams and not so good in games they are expected to win. There are expectations of course but that is the rule of thumb.

This season in the Premier League they have played eight matches as odds-on favourites and only won half of them.

The most recent example is the 2-1 loss against Ipswich, a game Spurs were 1.25 to win as per Oddsportal but Ange Postecoglou's side also lost at Crystal Palace (1.91), Brighton (2.42) and drew at Leicester (1.70).

So, at 1.74 I wouldn't be rushing to get the hosts on side Sunday especially considering the opposition.

As per Understat, Fulham are second in the league for expected points (22.36) ahead of Manchester City (20.71) and Sunday's opponents (20.66).

The Cottager's form against last season's top eight (Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle, Aston Villa) doesn't make for good reading at a glance (W1 L3) but Marco Silva's side won the xG battle in three of those games and look a huge price to beat Tottenham on Sunday in what promises to be a goal-laden game.

Fulham and both teams to score is the bet at 7.0 on the Betfair Exchange.

Liverpool vs Manchester City

Hyperbolic hysteria hangs over the Etihad, aggravated by the result in midweek.

Manchester City led 3-0 against Feyenoord with 75 minutes on the clock. With the result seemingly in the bag Pep Guardiola bought off three of his big hitters and the Dutch side scored three times within the final 15 minutes.

The result extended the Cityzens winless run to six games, five of which defeats, but like so many of those results, there are caveats in the latest slip up in the Champions League.

The substitutes for one. Another was Ederson's poor positioning for the last goal and there was also an element of fortune to Feyenoord's second goal. Prior to the changes, the visitors did not have a sniff.

The game on Tuesday followed an identical pattern to the ones with Tottenham (4-0), Brighton (2-1) and Sporting (4-1). City started strong, created plenty of chances, squandered them then the opposition grew in confidence and made them pay.

Aside from the obviously missing Rodri, the wasteful finishing is a major factor in the poor form and Erling Haaland has to shoulder the majority of the responsibility.

Haaland's last five starts for Man City:

And yet, Haaland netted a brace against Feyenoord and a hattrick for Norway against Kazakhstan. So, five goals in his last three appearances and against Tottenham he has seven shots.

The point is there is an explanation for City's rotten run and in theory it is easily fixed.

Above all though, their price is simply too big at Anfield and taking them with a +0.5 headstart on the Asian handicap appeals at 1.84, it's a chunk bigger then the double chance and they are literally the same bet.

Liverpool's form is outstanding, there is no two ways about it, but what comes after the lord mayor's show?

From the highs of beating Real Madrid in the Champions League one Wednesday, can they continue to sustain the performance levels having had less time to prepare then their opponents?

Josko Gvardiol is also an appealing price to score on Sunday at 11/1.

He has netted seven Premier League goals for City and based on that goals per 90 average (0.20), he should be exactly 5.00 to score.

This season, only Haaland has scored more goals for City and the defender is averaging 1.5 shots a game, only failing to have at least one in one of his 11 league starts.

All of Gvardiol's goals this season have come from left back (where he is expected to start against Liverpool) and he has had 13 shots in seven appearances.

A centre back by trade, he is a set piece threat but he also chips in from open play and is more than capable of striking from range.

There is also an interesting quirk to his goal scoring exploits in all bar one of his last eight goals for City have come on the road so a Gvardiol goal in worth a punt.

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