Sunderland v Coventry City: Back Lampard's Sky Blues to make it to Wembley | OneFootball

EFL Championship

Coventry are 2-1 down after the first leg but Ryan is backing them to qualify

Sunderland return to the Stadium of Light with a 2-1 lead over Coventry City in their play-off semi-final. Ryan Deeney looks ahead to the second leg and recommends two bets...

Sunderland v Coventry CityTuesday 13th May, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Winner Mayenda promotion hopes for Coventry

Sunderland took a huge leap towards the EFL Championship final with a 2-1 win over Coventry City at the CBS Arena on Friday night.

Regis Le Bris moved to a 4-4-2 shape for the game which paid off nicely, strikers Wilson Isidor and Eliezer Mayenda making the most of their opportunities when exploiting the left-hand channel.

They didn't have it all their own way. The Sky Blues came into the game as the in-form side and dominated the ball, equalising through the ever-dangerous Jack Rudoni but being undone by their own defensive failings.

It sets the second leg up nicely with Coventry proving they are capable of taking the game to Sunderland but now needing to do that and earn a result at an expectant Stadium of Light.

The back doors are creaking

If we look back at the league form of these sides, there are plenty of reasons to back against both.

In the case of Frank Lampard's Coventry, we have a team that collected one point from their final five away outings. Four of those matches were against sides trying to survive on the final day and they conceded two or more in four of their final six.

Sunderland, meanwhile, won just three of their final 10 matches at home, two of those wins coming against relegated Luton Town and Cardiff City, while they lost their final three by 1-0 scorelines.

The Black Cats do provide the reason to be positive and it's an important one. They did not concede more than 1xG or more than one goal during that period and their defensive resilience was on show for all to see on Friday night.

Curiously, none of those came against sides that joined them in the top six with their final home match against such opposition being on New Year's Day. Yet they have conceded at least 1.6xG against the same opposition in five of their last six, including the play-off semi-final.

Coventry, similarly, played their away matches against the top six finishers early in the season but have shown their ability to create opportunities, managing over 1xG in their last four. Their record of creating opportunities against Sheffield United and Sunderland, against whom they have had the most possession, has been impressive.

It stands to reason that Coventry, who have scored in 14 of their last 16, will create opportunities and find the net here. But their inability to stop the opposition creating their own coupled with continued goalkeeping problems means they will leave the door open and it's exactly what Sunderland want.

Play-off second legs bring chaos

Sunderland are favourites to win at ([6/5] heading into this second leg and they are 1/5 to qualify.

Coventry are [9/4] for the win and 7/2 to get a result, suggesting around a one in 4.5 chance that they come out of this tie victorious.

We've discussed the potential for both teams to score in this match. The Sky Blues are likely to dominate the ball once more. They had double the amount of Sunderland touches in the opposition area in the first leg and they will give themselves more than a chance on Tuesday.

Set-pieces are likely to factor into the equation as well. Lampard's side rank third for xG created from set-piece situations this season according to Opta data, with Sunderland having overachieved against their defensive xG data. Pressure can do funny things to what remains a youthful side.

Sunderland are a strong outfit and will be backed by a huge wave of support but this tie is not a foregone conclusion and, with Coventry the better performing team over months now and only needing to win by one goal to take this to extra-time, I think they're worth backing to qualify for the play-off final.

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