Betting.Betfair.com
·8 August 2024
Betting.Betfair.com
·8 August 2024
A view of Braga's famous 'quarry' stadium which will host Servette on Thursday
Braga v ServetteThursday 8 August, 20:30
Braga have challenged Portugal's traditional 'Big Three' regularly in recent seasons and certainly have potential in this season's Europa League.
They have finished in the top four in 13 of the last 15 seasons, muscling in on the top three in four of them, including two of the last five.
A key recent feature has been their attacking verve - in each of the last two seasons they've topped 70 goals, although keeping them out has proved more difficult.
Last season they conceded 50 as their games averaged 3.56 goals each - only champions Sporting had a high such number.
Both teams to score landed in 68% of their Primera Liga games - a league high - and that's a path I'm heading down for this one.
They may have kept two clean sheets in their opening Europa League tie against minnows Maccabi Petah Tikva but recent high-profile friendlies against Rayo Vallecano and Anderlecht saw both teams find the net.
Servette are four games into their domestic campaign, winning three, but all four have seen BTTS land and they should be able to cause that shaky Braga backline a problem or two.
My value pick here comes in the goalscorer markets where Braga's Rodrigo Zalazar looks a chunky price to score at any time.
The midfielder netted in both legs against Maccabi - notably he took a penalty in the first leg - to continue an impressive scoring streak which began during the second half of the 2023/24 campaign.
Zalazar scored eight times in his last 25 appearances of last season, averaging a goal every 182 minutes.
Those raw numbers certainly suggest he should be shorter than 9/2 to score in this contest, one for which his team are 2/5 favourites to win.
It's worth a punt.
Staked: 24pts Returned: 22.9pts P/L: -1.1pts
2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts
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