Tottenham v Aston Villa: Unai Emery's men look good value at 3.7 on the Betfair Exchange

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·2 November 2024

Tottenham v Aston Villa: Unai Emery's men look good value at 3.7 on the Betfair Exchange

English Premier League

Unai Emery has led Villa to wins at Spurs in the last two seasons

OneFootball Videos

Aston Villa look good value to win at Tottenham for a third successive season on Sunday, says Andy Schooler.

Tottenham v Aston VillaSunday 3 November, 14:00Live on Sky Sports Premier League & Main Event

Previewing Tottenham games isn't an easy business.

There are often lots of positives to be taken from watching them, particularly on home soil. For example, they've scored 49 goals in 23 home league games under Ange Postecoglou.

Shaky Spurs

Their demanding fanbase wants to be entertained and they have been getting that.

Yet too often there are baffling displays thrown in, such as last weekend's toothless 1-0 defeat at Crystal Palace. They've now lost nine of their last 16 league matches.

Perhaps more worryingly for a side with aspirations to finish in the top four, is their poor record against the elite. Last season they won just two of 10 games against fellow top-six members, losing six, including this very fixture.

Admittedly, they gained revenge with a 4-0 victory at Villa Park in March but a poor finish to the season allowed Villa to overhaul them and claim that Champions League spot.

So far this term. Spurs have played four sides in the current top 12 and lost to three of them.

Villa look tempting price

That's one of the reasons why Villa have already opened a five-point gap on Spurs.

Another is the fact that Unai Emery's men remain unbeaten on their travels, winning three of four so far.

This is arguably their toughest test but they clearly have goals in them with Ollie Watkins and Jhon Duran having made an early impression on the top scorers list, while Morgan Rogers is developing into a player of real quality.

Villa's forward line should be a handful for a home defence set to be without the pacy Micky van de Ven, who came off in midweek in tears. It looked like he had damaged the same hamstring which kept him out for a long spell last season. Heung-min Son also remains a doubt.

In short, I like Villa's chances about what would be there third successive win at the stadium under Emery. At all venues, they won three of the last four meetings. You can get a tasty-looking 3.7 about the visitors on the exchange.

However, it's also worth noting some alternatives using the stats.

All four of Villa's away games so far have seen both teams score, as have three of five at Villa Park.

With Spurs' goal threat at home already highlighted, backing the away win with both teams finding the net maybe worth backing at odds of 5.6.

Another angle I like is for Villa to score first at 13/10.

Spurs have now conceded first in 11 of their 13 home league games in 2024. That's a pretty incredible number for a top-half side and given it's a run across a 10-month span, it's clear it's a problem they've not managed to solve.

Udogie offers fouls value

Moving onto the props markets, this looks a game which could see a decent foul count as both teams are in the top three for being fouled.

A look at the markets shows Destiny Udogie as the standout bet.

The left-back loves to get forward and will need to be watched carefully by Matty Cash, who is prone to committing a foul or two.

Udogie has now been fouled at least twice in six of his last eight Premier League games and so it's surprising to see him available at 8/5 for a repeat.

The referee, Craig Pawson, looks a decent appointment for the bet. He's averaging 24 fouls per game so far this season which is 1.23 above the league average and puts him fifth in the FPG list.

Bet Builder options

That looks good single material but also worth including in any Bet Builders.

Another one worth considering is Youri Tielemans to commit 2+ fouls.

The Villa midfielder will be operating in similar areas to both James Maddison - Spurs' most-fouled player - and Dejan Kulusevski, who has been given licence to drift all over the place recently.

The Belgian international has committed 2+ fouls in five of his last six PL games so even money here again looks a good price, even if Maddison doesn't start.

8/1.