Tottenham v Elfsborg: Back 5/1 double involving creative Kulusevski | OneFootball

UEFA Europa League

Kulusevski has been a bright light for Tottenham this season

A win for Tottenham will guarantee a top-eight finish in the Europa League, and Jamie Kemp is backing Dejan Kulusevski to give his side a big helping hand towards doing so...

Tottenham Hotspur v ElfsborgThursday 30 January, 20:00Live on TNT Sports 2

Postecoglou's side must get back in the win column

He's odds-on to be next Premier League manager out of a job but Tottenham are standing by Ange Postecoglou, for now. Whether that's due to the club feeling like there's a lack of immediate alternatives, or whether they do believe their hampered squad is the main variable in their struggles, it's tough to know.

Either way, Tottenham really need to be beating Elfsborg at home on Thursday. A win guarantees their qualification to the last 16, but even beyond that, another underwhelming performance and/or result on home soil could convince the club to start rethinking that decision to leave him in place. After losing at home to Leicester - a team on a seven-game losing streak in the Premier League beforehand - another hiccup can't be allowed.

Of course, it's very much in Tottenham's interests to qualify directly for the last 16 too. An extra two play-off games added to their schedule, in their current situation, is only going to exacerbate the obstacles they're currently facing. Indeed, the Australian boss has reiterated that injuries are the big factor in their stumbling form, and the fewer games they have to play, the more chance he'll give himself to make good on his assertion.

Elfsborg are still in position to qualify for the play-off round themselves, but their performance data points to an opponent Tottenham should be taking care of without too many problems. Of the 36 sides involved, the Swedish side rank in the bottom five for both expected goals for (7) and expected goals against (13.3). Put the two together and their xG difference of -6.3 is the fourth-worst in the tournament.

If Elfsborg are to qualify, they'll have their home form to thank for it. Away from home, they've lost all three of their Europa League matches this season, while conceding 10 goals in the process. Only Maccabi Tel Aviv (11) have conceded more on the road this term.

Despite that, Elfsborg have only failed to score in one of their seven games in the competition, and have scored 2+ goals in two of their away defeats this term: 2-3 v AZ and 3-4 v Galatasaray. Against a Tottenham side characterised by open matches, featuring goals at both ends, this looks like a good candidate for similar action.

Even with rotations and still managing their injury problems, I'll back Tottenham to guarantee their place in the last 16 with a victory here, along with over 3.5 goals in the game. Whether Elfsborg can provide much resistance going the other way remains to be seen, but their performances on the road look enticing enough for Postecoglou's side to get after them.

Look to Kulusevski for Tottenham's inspiration

With Dominic Solanke, Richarlison, Brennan Johnson, and Timo Werner all expected to be unavailable for this one, as well as James Maddison having missed the Leicester game with a minor injury, attack-minded options remain pretty sparse for Tottenham.

Along with reduced numbers, it'd be a surprise to see Dejan Kulusevski left out of the starting XI for this one - even with plenty of minutes in his legs. At a delicate time for Postecoglou's side, relying on one of their better performers this year in Kulusevski seems a wise choice, even if the plan is to bring him out early in the second half after presumably having built a lead they can work with.

The Swede has scored or assisted in two of his last three Europa League appearances (one goal, one assist), while he's averaged a goal involvement every 149 minutes across all competitions on the season for Tottenham - better than one-in-two in terms of full games.

Indeed, despite the difficult circumstances he's surrounded by, the 24-year-old has already made this season his best as a Tottenham player in terms of goals scored (9). And if he manages to assist here, he'll also set his best single season tally for assists (currently 8) as a Spurs player.

Overall, I'll go with Dejan Kuluveski to score or assist anytime in this one, and pair that with 2+ fouls conceded for Elfsborg defender Niklas Hult. The Swedish defender has made the most fouls (12) for his side in the competition this term, and has averaged two per outing in the three away games in the league phase (six in total).

In a game where Elfsborg would love to steal a draw, expect plenty of gritty - and potentially desperate - last ditch defending.

Recommended bets

Back Tottenham to beat Elfsborg and over 3.5 match goals @ 6/5

Back Dejan Kulusevski to score or assist anytime; 2 fouls+ by Niklas Hult @ 5/1