UCL preview: Real Madrid vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

SempreMilan

·4 November 2024

UCL preview: Real Madrid vs. AC Milan – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

AC Milan are back in Champions League action on Tuesday night and they face the rather daunting prospect of a trip to the Santiago Bernabeu to face Real Madrid.

Milan have found themselves on the periphery of the Serie A title race heading into November and in the elimination places in the new Champions League ‘league phase’, meaning it has been a rocky road so far in 2024-25.

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Reports are circulating suggesting that Paulo Fonseca is under pressure to deliver results otherwise he may lose the backing of the management. What better way to silence the doubts than a win against the European champions?

Game date: Tuesday, November 5 Kick-off time: 21:00 (CET) Venue: Santiago Bernabeu Referee: Slavko Vincic (VAR: Van Boekel)

Team news

Milan have obtained three points from their opening three Champions League games so far this season. Back-to-back defeats against Liverpool (1-3, at San Siro) and Bayer Leverkusen (1-0, at the BayArena) were followed up by a 3-1 home win over Club Brugge.

In truth that game against the Belgian champions produced as many questions as it did answers given the away side levelled with 10 men, while Saturday’s 1-0 victory away against Monza was far from convincing too.

The opponents

To get some insight on the current European champions we spoke to Ruairidh Barlow, who is the Chief Editor for Football Espana and is therefore very familiar with Ancelotti’s side.

Real Madrid last season scooped the LaLiga title, the Champions League and the Supercopa – where does that rank among the best seasons in recent memory?

“Last season I think will be remembered very fondly by fans, but I don’t think it will go down as one of their best ever. Partly due to the context – it was not a side that stood out for their football, nor their brilliance, but their resilience.

“It also came in the context of a relatively easy run to the title, and they are only two years removed from a Champions League, one of six in a decade. So, in its own ridiculous way, it won’t be the season that many fans think of first.

“But the way the team found ways to win in the face of adversity was incredible. Missing Thibaut Courtois and Eder Militao, then David Alaba, it was the Champions League of Andriy Lunin, Dani Carvajal and Nacho Fernandez as much as the big stars.

“Then you have Toni Kroos walking out on a cloud, Vinicius Junior proving impossible to stop at times, and Jude Bellingham strolling into the club and grabbing 23 goals. Nobody really expected Los Blancos to triumph last season, so I think in terms of achievement, in terms of Carlo Ancelotti’s work, it’s probably one of their finest. Yet it will be remembered more by the fans than the media.”

Kylian Mbappe was the big summer addition. Was the general belief that he will complete the attack, or could it be a case of too many cooks spoiling the broth?

“The feeling was that you add Kylian Mbappe into a side that has just won a Champions League and La Liga double, and you can’t fail to at least win the league.

“There was a debate about where he would play, given both he and Vinicius Junior prefer coming off the left, but the feeling was that Ancelotti would find a way. Outside of managing the dressing room and the atmosphere at the club, that’s been one of his strongest areas, fitting stars together.

“So far that hasn’t been the case, but I think most people believe he will come good sooner or later, it’s just whether that is too late for Don Carlo.

“As much as Mbappe has been well below par, and the attack is not functioning properly, I do think there is acknowledgement that Real Madrid’s issues are just as much at the back and in midfield, starting with the absence of Toni Kroos.”

How has the start to the season been? Real suffered a heavy defeat in El Clasico…

“The opening couple of months were underwhelming without being disastrous, and there were certainly doubts about their play, but they still kept winning for the most part, with the exception of a defeat to Lille and a couple of slip-ups early on.

“The trouble is, you have the benefit of the doubt while you’re winning to fix things, whereas the Clasico defeat not only exposed their flaws for all to see, but put them under severe pressure in the table, and i accompanied by the backlash of putting them under serious pressure.

“Vinicius and Mbappe are one thing, but you’re building a midfield without Toni Kroos and with only cameos of Luka Modric, who have been the players that have run this team for a decade.

“Ancelotti has tried to compensate by making them more counter-attacking, but so far, their pressure isn’t co-ordinated enough to make that as effective as it might be, and you’re left with a side looking disjointed.”

Do the sub-plots to this game give it extra meaning? Milan facing Ancelotti again, Morata back at the Bernabeu, the two clubs with the most Champions Leagues etc.

“There’s a lot of history between two of the top five forces in European football history, and a lot of links between the two. AC Milan are Ancelotti’s other great love outside of Real Madrid.

“But honestly, as Ancelotti himself commented today in his press conference, there’s very little focus on the game in Spain due to the tragedy in Valencia.”

Are there any injuries/other selection problems? What is the starting line-up likely to be?

“Dani Carvajal, David Alaba and Thibaut Courtois are all out of action, so that’s three key members of their backline. At the back, it will be Lucas Vazquez, Eder Militao, Antonio Rudiger and Ferland Mendy. Vinicius and Mbappe will be up front, and then there’s less clarity. Rodrygo is just coming back from an injury but should be fit.

“Fede Valverde and Jude Bellingham will start, and one of Eduardo Camavinga or Aurelien Tchouameni. The latter has come in for a lot of criticism lately, so I think it could be Camavinga and one of Guler, Modric or Rodrygo. It’s the first game since the Clasico though, so Ancelotti will be keen to set a tone of change.”

Predicted Real Madrid XI (4-3-1-2): Lunin; Vazquez, Militao, Rudiger, Mendy; Valverde, Camavinga, Modric; Bellingham; Mbappe, Vinicius Jr.

Head to head

AC Milan are currently in their 125th season as a club and they have faced Real Madrid on 15 occasions in that century-and-a-quarter, the second-most of any Spanish club after Barcelona (19).

The record is perfectly split with six wins for the Rossoneri, three draws and six for Los Blancos. The first ever meeting was in the 1955-56 European Cup semi-finals, with Real winning 4-2 at home in the first leg and progressing on aggregate as Milan won 2-1 at San Siro.

Most recently, the Diavolo met Los Merengues in the 2010-11 UCL group stage, losing 2-0 away (Cristiano Ronaldo and Mesut Ozil with the goals) and drawing 2-2 at home (a brace for Pippo Inzaghi; goals from Gonzalo Higuain and Pedro Leon for the Spaniards).

The game that perhaps sticks out most for Milan fans will be the 3-2 in the Spanish capital in 2009. Again it was the group stage, with Alexandre Pato the hero as he scored a brace including an 88th-minute winner.

Key facts and stats

➤ Real Madrid have won five of their seven home matches against Milan in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League (D1 L1), beating them 2-0 in the most recent such match in October 2010.

➤ Milan are winless in their last three UEFA Champions League games against Real Madrid (D2 L1) since they won 3-2 in October 2009 with goals from Andrea Pirlo and a brace from Alexandre Pato.

➤ Real Madrid have won 17 of their last 18 European matches against Italian opposition, with their only defeat in this sequence coming at home to Juventus in April 2018 in a UEFA Champions League quarter-final match.

➤ This will be the fifth time Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti has faced his former side Milan since coaching them (2001-2009), and the first time in European competition. The previous four games all came while in charge of Napoli between 2018 and 2019, with Ancelotti only managing to beat his former side on one occasion (D2 L1): 3-2 in August 2018 in a Serie A home game.

➤ Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 15 home games in the UEFA Champions League (W12 D3), despite being on their longest run without a clean sheet at home in the competition (six games) since February 2013 (a run of eight).

➤ Milan have only won one of their last seven away games in the UEFA Champions League (D3 L3), with that one victory coming against Newcastle United in last season’s group stage (2-1). Milan have scored just three goals across these seven matches, while failing to score at all in five of them.

➤ Since the start of the 2022-23 campaign, Real Madrid’s Vinícius Júnior has been directly involved in 25 goals in 25 appearances in the UEFA Champions League (16 goals, nine assists) – the most of any player in this period. Indeed, his nine assists are also the out-right most of any player in the same time.

➤ Christian Pulisic has scored three goals in his last four games for Milan in the UEFA Champions League, as many as he netted in his previous 25 games in the competition combined (3). If he finds the net here, 2024-25 would already be his best-ever scoring return in a single Champions League campaign (currently on two goals).

➤ Since scoring in each of his first four UEFA Champions League games for Real Madrid, Jude Bellingham hasn’t found the net in any of his last 10 appearances in the competition. However, Bellingham has stood out for his defensive work this term, leading all Real Madrid players in the 2024-25 edition for duels won (20), tackles (8) and high-intensity pressures (169).

➤ Luka Modric has made 98 starts for Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League to date. Should he be named in the starting XI versus Milan, he’d overtake Toni Kroos (98) to become the midfielder with the most starts for the club in European Cup/Champions League history.

Ones to watch

Given all of the media attention surrounding his situation at present, all eyes will be on Leao to see if he can deliver a performance in a game that could hardly get any bigger. Morata returning to face his old club is another sub-plot, and he will be looking to get his first UCL goal for his new club.

However, the feeling is that a lot hinges on how Milan’s defence holds up. Theo Hernandez will meet his old side too and will have to remain disciplined, while Youssouf Fofana will act as a screen for the centre-back pairing, who face the most difficult job of all.

For Real, we throw it back over to Ruairidh: “Honestly, it’s hard to pick out clear performers this season so far. That said, Mbappe and Vinicius are being measured against their standards, and in ordinary terms, they are still incredibly dangerous.

“If I had to pick out something a little less obvious, then I’d say look out for Brahim Diaz, who Milan know well, or Arda Guler.

“Brahim is the most underrated member of the Real Madrid squad, and while he is just coming back from an injury, there was a stage last season where he won them several games between November and January.

“Beyond his quality, he has the sacrifice that none of the other Real Madrid forwards have, and despite being a player that prefers the ball to feet, understands where the most beneficial place for him to be is depending on the position of the other stars.

“Guler has a prodigal left foot and a self-confidence that mean he’s always dangerous. The vision to see things, the quality to execute them, and the audacity to play like a main character at Real Madrid. That said, he is still very raw, and has started less than 40 games of professional club football.”

Prediction

This feels like a step too far for Milan, not just because of the quality of the opponent but the uncertainties that surround so many aspects of the team. Given Real scored five in just over 30 minutes against Borussia Dortmund, the worry is that this could be a bloodbath.

Real Madrid 3-0 Milan