Wednesday Football Tips: Back home comforts at 14/5 | OneFootball

Bet of the Day

Emanuel Britez (left) is somewhat foul-prone

Our football props column heads to Brazil on Wednesday night where you can get 8/11 about the hosts, who are unbeaten at home, winning 12 of 15 this season...

Fortaleza v Atletico MineiroWednesday 16 October, 01:45 (Thu, BST)

Last night left me dumbfounded, to be honest. I didn't think it was possible to get so many data trends beat in one bet. It has to go down as the worst outcome I've ever had in the time I've been doing this column.

That's the sort of thing that makes you want to change your betting approach completely but, frankly, I've got little choice to have another go with the data given the paucity of the fixture list on Wednesday - the international break is now over with players on their way back to their clubs ahead of the weekend's domestic resumption.

However, in Brazil, Serie A carries on regardless and so we've got league games taking place on Wednesday night, including in Fortaleza where we've got a referee well known for producing cards and awarding free kicks.

Rafael Rodrigo Klein is averaging 6.36 yellow cards per game so far this season making him one of the Brasileiro's strictest officials, while he's also shown seven reds in 14 games. His fouls-per-game figure is also high - 28.36, which is well above the league average of 25.94.

Sadly, at time of writing, we've not got card markets to go at - they may well be worth checking out closer to kick-off, but the fouls ones look worth looking at.

Leg 1: Tomas Cardona to commit 1+ foul

These sides are both in the top eight for fouls committed and the top 11 for fouls drawn, so a high foul count would really be no surprise.

In the player-fouls markets, let's start with the hosts, for whom Tomas Cardona immediately gets the nod for 1+ foul.

The defender has delivered on this bet in 14 of his last 15 starts.

Leg 2: Emanuel Britez to commit 1+ foul

His fellow centre-back Emanuel Britez also has strong fouls stats, committing one in his last seven outings and 10 of the last 12.

Here, he is chalked up at 4/7 for a repeat so that looks a very good price.

On the Atletico side, Junior Alonso is quoted at 8/15 for 1+ foul despite having committed one in 15 of his last 18 games.

However, the Paraguayan has been away on international duty and seems unlikely to be available here.

Leg 3: Fortaleza to win

I'll therefore complete the Bet Builder by adding the home win at 8/11.

Alonso was one of three players away with their national teams this week, while three others are suspended, including striker Hulk.

There's also a lengthy injury list, all of which means that no fewer than seven youth-teamers have been called into the 20-man squad for this contest.

Fortaleza sit third in the table and are unbeaten on their own patch, winning 12 of 15.

Atletico, six places and 15 points worse off, have won only four of 13 away.

They look up against it here given their player absences.

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Recommended bets

Back Fortaleza to win and Tomas Cardona & Emanuel Britez to commit 1+ foul each @ around 14/5

Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 93pts Returned: 118.12pts P/L: +25.12pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts