Why history says Liverpool will not win the Premier League title | OneFootball

One defeat in 18 league matches. Arne Slot’s tenure as Liverpool manager could not have got off to a much better start.

The expectations were higher than the sky following Jurgen Klopp’s departure after nine years of winning trophies, forging relationships and creating long-lasting memories.

In the aftermath of Manchester City’s historic fourth Premier League title in a row and Arsenal’s growing confidence in challenging for domestic honours, Liverpool fans could be forgiven for thinking there would be a season, or two, of transition.

Perhaps not quite as drastic as the fallout after Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger left their dynasties at Manchester United and Arsenal. But no new major summer signings and a coach only having success in a league outside of the top five European leagues would be enough to be cautious.

Fortunately, for Slot, the foundations were laid by Klopp.

Three wins out of three was followed by a shock, at the time at least, home defeat to Nottingham Forest. Any concerns of that being the start of a dip or a reality check were quickly forgotten.

Now 23 games in all competitions unbeaten since, including sweeping aside Champions League holders Real Madrid, have put the Reds on course for a second Premier League title and seventh European Cup.

Top at Christmas

The all-important milestone of being top at Christmas has historically been a good indicator as to who would finish as champions come the end of the season.

But the pendulum may be swinging. In the last six seasons, only two teams who were top at Christmas went on to claim the title.

Unfortunately, for Liverpool, three of these six times were led by them, but they only won the title once.

History is not on their side either. Of the 32 previous Premier League seasons, it is split down the middle – 16-a-piece – of sides winning the league having been top at Christmas.

More grim reading for the Reds is that from the half-a-dozen occasions they have been top at Christmas, their solitary league title was in the 2019/20 campaign, which saw celebrations disrupted due to the COVID pandemic.

Would could derail the title challenge?

In a season where Pep Guardiola’s side have dropped their levels significantly and Arsenal have failed to capitalise on this with inconsistent results, what, if anything, could disrupt the Reds’ charge?

Three dark clouds have tried but seemingly failed to overshadow Liverpool’s season. Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold’s contracts expire at the end of this season and all three can sign pre-contract agreements with foreign clubs on 1 January.

To all three’s credit, they have not been distracted and performed to their highest level. Salah has hit 20 goals in all competitions for Liverpool for the eighth season. Van Dijk has the joint-most clean sheets after his 18 games played; eight along with Nottingham Forest duo Nikola Milenkovic and Matz Sels. Alexander-Arnold has four assists, but his defensive work has improved significantly under Slot’s guidance.

Injuries are always a key factor in a title challenge fading, but so far, so healthy. The midfield has often been tinkered with but ever-improving. Ryan Gravenberch has gone onto new levels under his Dutch compatriot, while Curtis Jones has stepped up, too, in goals and assists.

Diogo Jota, often out of the side with niggles, has come back at the right time and proving his worth as the Reds’ most lethal marksman when on the pitch, Egpytian company included.

Under Klopp’s reign, Liverpool’s spine was paramount to their success. This included goalkeeper Allison Becker, but even in his absence, Caoimhin Kelleher has stepped up and been a seamless and crucial cog in Liverpool’s wheel. The only blemish on his record was the error that led to Newcastle United’s late leveller in a 3-3 thriller at St James’ Park, but he had enough credit in the bank before that mistake.

Slot himself has proven to be a calm and composed demeanour from the sidelines, a stark contrast to Klopp’s emphatic fist bumps.

His short relationship with the media cannot be downplayed either. Often referring to his answers as ‘boring’, when asked about the transfer speculation of his three key players, Slot is all business. He has not shied away from the expectations and demands of competing for trophies as a manager and player of Liverpool.

While the record books may not favour the Reds, Slot could be joining the esteemed company of Jose Mourinho, Manuel Pellegrini and Carlo Ancelotti in winning the Premier League in their first season.