Writers' Chat Preview: All or Nothing Incheon United vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen | OneFootball

It could be all or nothing for Incheon United this Sunday when hosting Daejeon Hana Citizen in Round 37 of the 2024 Hana Bank K League 1 season. Defeat, coupled with a result for Jeonbuk at home to Daegu, could spell relegation. Daejeon, meanwhile, could secure safety with a game to spare should the Purples earn a first win at Sungui Arena Park since March 2013.

Results elsewhere on Sunday will have a direct impact on Incheon and Daejeon. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors host Daegu FC in an 11th versus 10th clash. With Jeonbuk two points clear of Incheon, a win for the Green Warriors coupled with a loss for Incheon would mean relegation. A draw in Jeonju and a draw in Incheon would mean it'll go down to the last day when United are away to Daegu and Jeonbuk travel to Gwangju. A draw in Jeonju and a defeat for Incheon would effectively relegate the Durumi due to an inferior goals-scored tally, the first tiebreaker in K League, 34 to 45.

As for Daejeon, a win coupled with a victory for Jeonbuk would mean safety. A win and a Jeonbuk-Daegu draw would mean a gap of three points but four goals scored fewer than Daegu, and thus absolute safety would have to wait until the last day when the Purples host Jeju United. In short, safety can be secured but it will depend on what happens at Jeonju Castle.

To look ahead to this huge match in the penultimate round of the season, columnists Paul Neat and Luke sat down to go over the main talking points.

Incheon Staring Down the Barrell

Paul asks, Luke answers...

Paul: Incheon manager Choi Young-geun said after the 0-0 draw with Jeonbuk that he's going "all-in" for the game against Daejeon. First of all, I just wondered what your thoughts were on that.

Luke: First of all, I don't really think he has a choice. The time for taking precautions has long gone, and realistically the team should have tried to be more attacking in the last few games, rather than playing the way they have. Two weeks ago was a good win against Gwangju, but it was only by a single goal. In that game, Gwangju missed many opportunities, and we were hanging on by the end.

Last week, around 2,500 Incheon fans travelled to watch the Jeonbuk game. I think that was Incheon's big opportunity to take control of their own destiny. Had they been more attacking in that game, they’d be in a far better position going into the last two rounds. In the game, Incheon failed to have any shots on target, and the majority of the game was spent passing sideways and backwards in their own half with a complete lack of urgency.

The players have been playing as if they're terrified of making mistakes, so they take no chances in possession. The manager seems scared of changing anything, too, in case it unbalances the team. The fact that Paul-Jose M'Poku and Kim Bo-seop are being ignored is testament to this. Both are game-changers on their day, and the fans were crying out for substitutions from around the 60th minute last week, but none came. If Incheon had brought more attacking players on, they might have won the game. Instead, the boss settled for a point. One has to wonder whether we will all look back on that particular game as the one big missed opportunity.

Paul: How in a team with Stefan Mugosa (league's top scorer) and Gerso Fernandes, did Incheon fail to land a single shot on target against Jeonbuk and generally have a lack of cutting-edge? Can Daejeon expect Incheon to come out of the traps early?

Luke: I think one problem is that without any creativity in the centre of the field, Mugosa drops back into deeper positions to collect the ball. Occasionally, he runs out wide as well and crosses the ball in. The issue with this is there is then nobody to aim for apart from an isolated Gerso Fernandes, who tends to be surrounded by three defenders. It's clear that the midfield is the problem. Incheon play three players—Kim Do-hyeok, Moon Ji-hwan, and Lee Myung-ju—who tend to do the same sort of thing; there is nobody attack-minded or creative. There is nobody feeding the ball through to the attacking players.

Another issue Incheon have is that the wide players also have to come deep to collect the ball. When you come back to collect the ball on the halfway line, you then have to run half the length of the field to reach an area where you can be dangerous. It's all counterproductive.

Ever since Elias Aguilar left, Incheon have struggled in that department. M'Poku could be that player. Shin Jin-ho, had he not been as injured as he has, could have been that player. Things have worked against Incheon, but it also appears there's a general mentality about this Incheon team that they would rather not concede than take a chance on scoring. They're the lowest scorers in the league for a reason. I don't see them suddenly scoring a hatful this weekend. All the talk of going all out? I don't buy it. If Incheon don't get an early goal, it'll quickly revert to business as usual, I'm afraid.

Paul: Has time run out? Has the manager's unwillingness to change things meant Incheon have merely been given a stay of execution?

Luke: I think we picked the wrong man for the job and changed the leadership too late. Issues with money and budgets off the field haven’t helped, but this has been on the cards all season. There have been times when you could say this game and that game were opportunities, or when a switch in style or more ruthlessness on the field could have helped. Losing at home to Jeju a couple of weeks ago was damaging, especially in the manner it happened. And losing to Daejeon earlier in the season, too. That goal came in the last minute.

Incheon have been stuck with this mentality of playing negative football while expecting positive results for a long time, and I’ve said for a while that Incheon are doomed. I think last weekend's result is the one that's going to be the actual hammer blow. The damage has been done, and I don’t see much changing with only two games left.

Luke: For Incheon to win, they need to attack. They can be dangerous going forward and have players who can hurt teams. If someone can get on the ball and drive it forward, feed Gerso in the channels, or get the ball to wide players like Hong Si-hoo in Daejeon’s third, then we might see the visitors under pressure. Everyone knows about Gerso’s speed, but it’s only of value when he’s on the last man—not on the halfway line with five players in front of him.

I would love to see some of the players who have been ignored getting some game time. If Incheon are going all out, they need to use players who haven’t been drilled to keep the ball, as this is where the game could potentially be lost. If Incheon have a lot of the ball and do nothing with it, a loss of concentration or a wayward pass could let Daejeon in. I don’t expect Daejeon to come out and be particularly attacking either, as they don’t need to be. With Choi Young-geun’s comments this week, their game plan seems fairly straightforward: sit back and wait for an Incheon mistake, then counter-attack quickly. It's an area where Daejeon have improved recently, and a style that suits them. It's also a method that has cause Incheon a lot of issues this year.

Daejeon on Cloud Ninth?

Luke asks, Paul answers...

Paul: That is something that crossed my mind. Daejeon, sitting ninth and more or less safe from automatic relegation, have managed to get themselves out of the mire and have their destiny in their own hands. But, a lot of players have been talking about the influence of the senior pros in the dressing room. Ex-Incheon wingback Oh Jae-suk, the goalkeeper Lee Chang-geun, and Lee Soon-min too to a degree, they have been reminding the players that it's not done yet. They are reminding the players that, there aren't four, three, two games left... there is only one game left and we have to win to secure survival. That's the attitude that's being instilled into the squad. The performance against Gwangju was decent enough, they just couldn't put the ball away. There was plenty of endeavour and they played some good football at times too. It'll be a different sort of game against Incheon, though, they're going to have to dig in. They'll need characters like Anton Kryvotsyuk, Kang Yoon-seong - players with a bit of fight in them and aggression.

Luke: Where can the game be won and lost for Daejeon?

Paul: It can be won with the high press, which Daejeon have had a great deal of success with since the summer when Hwang Sun-hong really began to mold this team. Teams seem hell-bent on playing out from the back and dawdling with the ball, Daejeon have players who can press and pick that right pass. The goal against Daegu a couple of rounds ago came from that sort of situation, and against FC Seoul before the split. If they can keep up the energy and press properly, get into Incheon's centre backs who aren't the quickest or most mobile, then they should cause problems.

The game can be lost for Daejeon in defensive transitions and trying to deal with pace. They absolutely should not try to play a high line because Gerso will punish any mistakes. Daejeon aren't the best when suddenly in a defensive transition, they don't turn quick enough and can be a bit rigid. If they can be sensible on the ball in midfield and not give it away, and Incheon aren't allowed to pick Gerso out on the counter then they should have a chance.

Paul: It's incredible, really. He got an assist on his debut against Jeonbuk in Round 1 but I still didn't see him as a starter, more of a squad player. He's had to come back from injury setbacks but he has been the perfect fit for Hwang Sun-hong's system. Daejeon have been playing with what the Korean press refer to as a "zero top," basically no strikers with two false nines, Masatoshi Ishida and Kim Jun-beom with Yoon Do-young and Choi Geon-ju, the two wingers, high up. Kim Jun-beom's composure, his calmness on the ball, and his ability to pick out a pass or be clinical in front of goal have really dragged this team out of the bottom three. He has four goals and two assists and most have been worth their weight in gold. Three goals against Jeonbuk in two different games have earned four points. He's surprised a lot of people and is a key player. I expect him to be up top again alongside Masa and the starting XI should be the same.

Paul: A lot was made of the win at home to Incheon in the summer (2-1, R27), that it was the first of Incheon in 11 years. So, I think that win will give them confidence, they know how to beat Incheon, even after drawing level again in that game when Mugosa equalised. Of course, there was a lot of luck involved in that win, including that huge error from Incheon goalkeeper Min Seong-jun who spilled the cross for Gutek to score the winner, but they should be going to Sungui Arena Park as favourites. It's going to be tough, they're going to have to weather the storm but this season Daejeon have broken a lot of jinxes this season, they'll feel as though they have it in them to get that first away win over Incheon since March 2013.