Brest v Real Madrid: Turkish wonderkid Arda Guler to seize his opportunity in France | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Ancelotti should look to some fringe players for Brest trip

Carlo Ancelotti is likely to shake up his starting XI for the trip to Brest, but Jamie Kemp is still expecting the reigning champions to take care of business on MD8...

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Brest v Real MadridWednesday 29 January, 20:00

Rotation should be no obstacle for Real

With both teams already assured of a place in the play-off round, there's not a huge deal riding on this one in terms of immediate objectives. True, both sides could still quality for the top eight and do directly into the last 16, but the chances of that happening look pretty slim with the amount of teams in similar positions.

According to the Opta predictor, Real Madrid have less than a 3.8% chance of finishing in the top eight, while Brest are at a slightly higher - yet still very unlikely - 7.5% to do so.

Especially for Real Madrid, that context should afford Carlo Ancelotti a chance to rotate and give minutes to some players on the fringes. The problem with having one of the world's best squads is finding the opportunities to play them, and the likes of Brahim Diaz, Arda Guler, and Endrick will all be hopeful when their manager names the team here. There may not be a better time to do so before the business end of the season ramps up.

That's not to say Ancelotti will send the B team. Expect him to bring in a few from out of the cold, but surround them with the likes of Luka Modric, Ferland Mendy or even the returning David Alaba - players who've been there and done it for Real Madrid in previous European campaigns, who still offer you a dependable level of seniority in a game nobody wants to simply punt on. And besides, one or two of the superstars will likely stick around too. Kylian Mbappe is in red hot form and he'll no doubt welcome the chance to play on home soil again.

As for Brest, this will still be a big night for them. Welcoming the reigning European champions is a special occasion, regardless of already qualifying and already being able to put this down as a successful European campaign in progressing from the league phase.

They've been plenty competitive in the Champions League this season too. With four wins in seven games (D1 L2), the only occasion in which they've been soundly beaten was away to Barcelona - the best attacking side in the competition this term. They're also unbeaten in their three home games (W2 D1), where they've scored in each, and edged the xG battle (4.1 to 3.1).

On a much-anticipated night, there's little reason to think Brest won't be lining up their best shot at the champion. However, Real Madrid rotations won't make them an undercooked opponent - any players who do come in will be auditioning in Ancelotti's eyes, and players like Arda Guler have been desperately pushing for their chances of late.

Real Madrid have only kept a clean sheet in four of their last 13 victories in the Champions League, while they're on a run of seven games without one in the competition. Particularly if Kylian Mbappe makes the starting XI, expect them to give the home crowd a show.

Real Madrid's Turkish delight deserves his chance

It'd be a real surprise if Arda Guler didn't play meaningful minutes for Real Madrid in this one. With his playing time blocked massively by the configuration of Vinicius, Mbappe, Bellingham, and Rodrygo the majority of the time, a start for the Turk in midweek seems like one of the most sensible decisions Ancelotti can make. Indeed, with Vinicius also still out with an injury, a game without huge implications should shoot Guler up the pecking order.

When he does get the chance to start, the 19-year-old can hardly be accused of not making his mark. He's been directly involved in 12 goals in 17 career starts for Real Madrid, while his per 90 average across those matches comes out at 0.85 - not far off a goal or assist for every full game played.

Guler has been directly involved in six goals in his most recent five starts too, including two assists the last time he made a starting XI in La Liga (in a 3-3 draw v Rayo Vallecano in December).

What's more, among players with 300+ minutes played for the club this season, Guler averages the most chances created from open play per 90 (2.4). And along with that, he's also got the best assists per 90 ratio (0.52).

With what he's produced when he has had the chance to play regularly, it's clear that Guler's biggest problem at Real Madrid is simply the competition he's working against. Even if he makes a huge impact, consolidating a place in the team is virtually impossible with the quality and reputation attackers ahead of him.

If he gets Ancelotti's blessing here, I'll back his creative powers to come to the fore.

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