Brighton v Liverpool: Back goals in League Cup tie plus 12/1 goalscorer double | OneFootball

EFL Cup

Stinch is back to preview Brighton v Liverpool in the League Cup

Odds compiler and Football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is here to preview Brighton v Liverpool in the League Cup on Wednesday...

Brighton v Liverpool (Wed, 19:30)

Expect both sides to ring the changes here as the League Cup plays second fiddle to Premier League priority. Brighton made eight changes in the last round from their previous league game in their 3-2 victory over Wolves and Liverpool made nine changes in their 5-1 win versus West Ham.

The likes of Evan Ferguson, Julio Enciso and Simon Adingra will likely be in the first XI given their limited league starts. Adingra could be an interesting anytime goalscorer bet at 16/5. He's scored in both rounds of the League Cup so far and he scored against Liverpool at the Amex in the league last season.

For Liverpool, backing Cody Gakpo in some way could be the way to go. Despite only five starts this season, he's scored two goals, both in the last round versus West Ham, assisted two goals and also been booked twice. He's got a great record in the League Cup with six goals in seven games, with five of those versus Premier League opposition. He's 12/5 to score anytime.

The match odds are to be swerved with us second guessing both the lineups and quantifying the motivation. Liverpool are 11/10 favourites but given the excellent start to the season it's likely the League Cup is last on the list of priority.

Despite all Brighton's changes versus Wolves, new Brighton boss Fabian Hürzeler might see this as a good opportunity to go deep in the competition, especially without any European football this season. Indeed they are only 18/1 to win the League Cup whilst Liverpool are 6/1.

The obvious avenue is to side with goals given the amount we are seeing in both teams matches under new management this season.

In Brighton's 11 domestic matches there have been 37 goals at an average of 3.36 per-game. In Liverpool's 10 domestic matches there have been 28 goals at a rate of 2.80 per-game. Since 2019, with the appointment of Graham Potter and the clear shift at Brighton in more pro-active football, nine of their 14 League Cup matches have seen over 2.5 goals (64%).

Outside of Finals and Semi-finals where the motivation and jeopardy increases with the increase chance of a trophy, 11 of Liverpool's last 15 League Cup games have seen over 2.5 goals (73%).

Matches between these two rarely disappoint with six of the last seven seeing over 2.5 goals with a total of 25 goals at an average of 3.57 per-game! So let's back Over 2.75 goals at 1.79.

Three goals sees half our bet win and four or more goals sees the full bet win. Given we're forecasting a high scoring game, let's also have a small bet on the aforementioned Simon Adingra and Cody Gakpo both to score at a juicy 12/1, providing they both start.

Column P/L 2024/25

Recommended bets

Back 1pt Over 2.75 goals in Brighton v Liverpool @ 1.79