GdS: ‘Worth more than a derby’ – why the Coppa Italia is crucial for Milan and Inter

SempreMilan

·2 de abril de 2025

GdS: ‘Worth more than a derby’ – why the Coppa Italia is crucial for Milan and Inter

AC Milan and Inter will contest their fourth derby of the season and another will be played, because we are talking about the first leg of the Coppa Italia semi-finals.

As La Gazzetta dello Sport (seen below) write this morning, the derbies so far this season have been an anomaly. Milan have everything to lose because the Coppa Italia is the last objective left for Sergio Conceiçao and his out-of-tune orchestra.

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The Coppa is worth less than qualification for the Champions League, which has now vanished, there is at least the chance of getting in to the Europa League and adding a second trophy of the season, which would be at least something.

For Inter, the Coppa Italia is essential to duplicate the 2010 treble, given they are in the Scudetto race and the Champions League quarter-finals. Simone Inzaghi is a specialist in the Coppa Italia: at not even 50 years old he has won three, one with Lazio and two with Inter.

However, Conceiçao beat Inzaghi in January in Riyadh, in the final of the Supercoppa Italiana played out in Saudi Arabia, and this is where we need to start to understand where the two-legged derby in April will end up.

The oddity

In the season of great confusion, Milan won two derbies and drew another against the ‘battleship Inter’, as Antonio Conte labelled them. In September, in the league, a 2-1 win with Paulo Fonseca as coach and with high pressure on Inter’s build-up from the back as the keystone.

In January, with Conceiçao newly appointed, the great Milan comeback in the Supercoppa from 0-2 to 3-2. Two factors: Inter’s relaxation, ahead by two goals, and the inclusion of Leao. In Arabia, as on other occasions, the Portuguese got up from the bench and broke the game.

The exclusions motivate Leao, who however is announced among the starters tonight. On Sunday, Conceiçao had cut him from the line-up against Napoli, to bring him on at 2-0 and nearly get a draw out of nowhere.

The third derby of 2024-25 was the 1-1 in February, the return leg in the league, with Inter down by a goal until the 93rd minute. If Stefan de Vrij hadn’t scored the 1-1 at the last minute, today we would be talking about three consecutive victories for Milan.

That was the derby of Milan’s resistance, a match in which Conceiçao’s football was seen: tough fight, extreme defensive phase and a strong dose of luck given the three times that the blue side of the city hit the post.

The present day

Tonight we expect a match similar to the 1-1 in February. Milan cannot afford to face Inter head on, without worrying about the side effects. Better yet: Milan would have the men to try and succeed, but they lack a style of play; a common and clear idea.

Conceiçao’s Milan are an emotional team, it experiences ups and downs, it emerges when it is put under pressure. On the other hand, Inter are cold, rational and structured; it knows how to take what it wants.

Inter’s risk is excessive confidence, Milan’s strength is the ability to react. In this respect the Riyadh derby was perfect: Inter ahead 2-0, convinced they had done the job. Milan wounded and reactive, roared back from the dead.

The weight of the attacks

In the league, Inter have scored 67 goals and Milan 45: 22 goals difference in 30 games, a big gap. The algorithm, however, says otherwise. As for Expected Goals, Inter and Milan are not that far apart: Inzaghi’s team are first with 1.94xG per game, then Milan second together with Atalanta with 1.71.

These numbers explain how Milan have an attacking potential almost on par with Inter. The problem has been finishing, but over the small sample size of two games a different outcome can emerge, especially given Inter only have three of their five attackers.

Thuram and Correa will be starters, with Arnautovic on the bench, then Lautaro and Taremi out due to injuries. Milan will have Leao and Pulisic, and Conceiçao must decide who will be the centre-forward between Gimenez and Abraham, with Jovic fresh from a goal against Napoli ready to come on.

Conceiçao will field the best possible formation. Inzaghi, between injuries and the distribution of forces, will vary several players. Next week Inter will have the first leg of the Champions League quarter-finals against Bayern in Munich.

The rotation could have an impact, but Inter’s depth is still on par with the best Milan. Conceiçao has everything to lose, but if Inzaghi were to exit the Coppa Italia at the hands of Milan, after having left the Supercoppa to the same Milan, a visible crack would open up in the wall of his season.