Jones Knows Premier League Notebook: Cole Palmer is a marked man and this is how to profit | OneFootball

English Premier League

Has Maresca found a way to get even more out of Cole Palmer?

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - identifies a profitable betting strategy regarding the performances of Cole Palmer in his weekly Betfair Notebook column...

Perfect Palmer has a target on his back

Cole Palmer is the real deal - that's now a fact.

He may take Chelsea some special places over the next few years and his boss Enzo Maresca has certainly played a part in the sensational output Palmer is producing this season.

Maresca has pushed him even more to the fore, tinkering his position to play him in a free role just off the striker where he is given liscence to float all over the pitch, picking up pockets of space to cause carnage with his slick build-up.

No player has more goal involvements in the Premier League this season than his 12 - nope, not even Erling Haaland who has 11.

In the game of finding value in the betting markets, Palmer's 'to score or assist price' waved goodbye to punters from a value perspective a long time ago. The markets understand he's the most dangerous man on the planet in the Premier League - again, his goal involvement output is the best of anyone in the Premier League since the start of last season. He leads the way with 45.

So, Palmer is a marked man with the bookmakers. And he's also become a marked man with opposition players, who are having to devise a plan to stop him.

Kick him, basically.

Curtis Jones and Arne Slot were very open about the plans Liverpool put in place to restrict the space for Palmer in their 2-1 win over Chelsea where Jones was tasked with the job of man marking the Chelsea maestro.

Other teams are giving him special treatment too.

How we can profit from Cole Palmer's role

And this is where the value lies in the Palmer game for us as bettors - his to be fouled prices.

He has been fouled 19 times in his last six starts for the Blues which is a huge spike on his numbers from last season.

Just comparing the per 90 average paints the picture perfectly.

English Premier League - Top 8 Fouls Won

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Last season Palmer was working at a fouled per 90 average of just 0.89, ranking him 165th in that particular metric of all Premier League players to have played 500 minutes or more.

This season he sits sixth in the fouls won per 90 standings for players to have played at least 500 minutes, averaging 2.44 fouls per game - a clear piece of evidence that his move to a central area along with the extra focus from opposition teams to stop him is having a huge affect on his to be fouled numbers.

Those that have spotted this trend will have been making some sweet, sweet profit in recent weeks as the markets are sleeping on this trend.

These are Palmer's fouls won numbers from his last six starts: 4-5-1-3-3-3.

It took Newcastle just three minutes to make their first foul on him on Sunday as Palmer was eventually fouled three times in the match.

To give you an idea of how the markets have been pricing him up, when the first show in the 'player to be fouled' market was released by Betfair last Thursday Palmer was available at 9/5 to be fouled two or more times - something that has now landed for punters in five of his last six games.

And those playing the higher to be fouled three or more times would have landed the bunce also on five of those occasions to a huge level-stakes profit considering his price on Sunday v Newcastle was readily available to back at 5/1 across Thursday and Friday.

Chelsea go to Manchester United on Sunday.

And like a squirrel filling up on nuts before winter comes, we must get our feed before these prices freeze over and are cut to their true probabilities.